NAS100 – Strong Bullish Structure Points to 25,000 TargetThe NAS100 has been respecting a clear bullish market structure, forming consecutive higher highs and higher lows since June. After completing an uptrend continuation pattern, the index broke above the resistance area and is now consolidating near a weak high, signaling potential for further upside momentum.
🔹 Market Structure:
Bottom 1 → BOS → Bottom 2 → BOS → Bottom 3 formed a solid base for continuation.
A strong breakout confirmed the bullish bias.
Demand zones have been respected multiple times, showing institutional buying pressure.
🔹 Key Technical Levels:
Immediate Resistance: 23,800 – 23,900
Major Target Zone: 25,000 psychological level
Support Levels: 23,200 (short-term), 22,800 demand zone, 21,600 major support
🔹 Bullish Outlook:
If the price holds above 23,600 and buyers defend the resistance area, we could see a strong rally toward the 25,000 mark. The trend remains bullish unless the market closes below 22,800 demand zone, which would indicate weakness.
Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Positive
Targets: 25,000 short-to-medium term
Risk Level: Moderate.
USTECH100MINICFD trade ideas
NAS100 3 Drive Pattern Correction Wait For BoS📊 The NAS100 has pulled back after a strong bullish run and is currently facing some pressure 📉. I’m watching a three-drive pattern that appears to have extended into a fourth drive, followed by a corrective phase 🔄. From a smart money perspective, liquidity is often targeted after a strong expansion in trend — patterns like the three-drive can frequently lead to a deeper retracement before the continuation resumes. With that in mind, I’m anticipating the possibility of a further pullback before positioning for a potential long setup on a bullish break of structure 🚀 (not financial advice).
Is this the top? SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update For 8-20I know it has been a while since I shared a video.
This video is designed to share the downside risks I see as a potential for the markets IF this big speculative phase unwinds like I think.
Ultimately, you guys are the ones who will be making the trading decisions. I just want you to be aware that the markets are extremely volatile right now and the data is pointing to a very clean Excess Phase Peak (EPP) pattern.
As you are all aware, the EPP pattern suggests that a breakdown in price is likely where price may attempt to target the FLAG LOW.
If that happens, be prepared for a -15% to -20% breakdown in price before the end of 2025 - possibly seeing an even bigger price collapse.
In my opinion, this breakdown is the result of a broad unwinding of excesses related to the Biden economy (free money) and a move towards more reasonable US economic policies.
Overall, this pullback is necessary for the Wave 1 of Wave 5 structure to complete. Once this pullback is complete, the bigger rally phase (Wave 3 of Wave 5) will begin. And get ready for a big rally phase with Wave 3.
So, I hope this video helps you learn how to identify and plan for some of the biggest price swings in the SPY/QQQ, and prepare for even bigger moves in Gold/Silver and Bitcoin.
Get some.
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NAS100 Analysis – Bullish Channel Break & Retest in Progress📌 Key Highlights:
Bullish Channel Broken: Price failed to respect the upward trend channel. Although the candle bodies held above a support zone, price wicked through to test a lower level – indicating a weakening bullish structure.
Pressure Reversal Zone: Around 23,800, price ran out of momentum. Downward pressure entered the market, shifting the trajectory and breaking the previous bullish pattern.
Confirmed Zones via Retest: Each zone was respected by a clean retest, reinforcing their validity as support/resistance areas. This is textbook price action – confirming zones before continuation.
Current Candle Behaviour: The most recent green candle has no top wick, showing strong buyer conviction. However, the bottom wick is long, meaning bears are still present and applying pressure.
Decision Point: We’re at a critical moment. Will price break above this level to reclaim the channel — or reject and fill the imbalance left behind by the last bullish move?
📉 Scenario 1 – Rejection & Continuation Down
If price fails to break and close above this resistance, we could see a bearish continuation — potentially aiming for the next key support zone around 22,677.
📈 Scenario 2 – Bullish Recovery
If bulls maintain strength and close above this level with volume, we could see price climb back toward 23,500+ to retest the upper zone.
✅ Bearish Bias
Price broke below the bullish channel structure (a major technical shift).
Retests have confirmed lower zones — typical bearish continuation behaviour.
The current green candle has no upper wick (buyers trying to push), but a long lower wick shows bears are still active.
Downward pressure has already shifted momentum, and we’re now waiting to see if the zone holds.
🟡 However – Confirmation Needed
If price fails to break above this current resistance zone, then bearish continuation becomes confirmed.
If price closes strong above this level and reclaims the channel, the bias would shift neutral to bullish again.
📌 Final Bias Statement:
Bearish bias for now — unless price cleanly breaks back above the resistance zone. Current price action suggests a possible continuation down to fill the wick and test deeper support zones.
🧭 Watching for:
Candle body closures above or below key zones
Wick reactions showing liquidity grabs
Momentum shifts in volume
🔔 Stay sharp. Trade with confirmation, not emotion.
By AutoMarkets | Built. Not Begged.
USNAS100 Update | Fed Pressure Keeps Market Under Bearish BiasUSNAS100 – Overview
Tech fright calms but Fed pressure grows
U.S. tech stocks appear to have stabilized after two sessions of sharp declines, but uncertainty persists as the Treasury market reacts to the latest Federal Reserve developments ahead of the central bank’s annual Jackson Hole symposium in Wyoming.
Technical Outlook
USNAS100 maintains a bearish setup while below 23,295.
A break and sustained close above this level would signal a potential bullish reversal.
📍 Key Levels
Pivot: 23,295
Support: 23,165 – 23,045 – 22,850
Resistance: 23,430 – 23,540 – 23,690
previous idea:
How to determine if the Fed will change target interest rates?In this video, I explain the mechanism of the Fed target interest rates and how to determine if the Fed will cut the target interest rates in September 2025 (or any other FOMC). I also talk about the Overnight Reverse Repo balance sheet and the draining of the balance from a high of 2.55T on 30th Dec 2022 to just 25B as of 21st Aug 2025. I hypothesize a scenario from now till the September FOMC:
1. The Overnight Reverse Repo is completely emptied, meaning the stealth liquidity is gone.
2. The Equity Markets suffers a sharp fall (even a crash).
3. Funds rotate into US treasuries, causing yield to fall.
4. Fed cuts target interest rates without having to monetize the debts.
The most important key takeaway in this video is to understand that in order to know if the Fed will do anything is to see the 3month government bond yield. All the other information are supplementary and provide us information to paint a narrative on how the market will move in the coming weeks.
As aways, keep your risks tight, and Good Luck!
Nasdaq to 24k!!!I remain constructive on the NASDAQ as we head into the second half of the year. Chair Powell’s remarks at Jackson Hole reinforced that rate cuts are coming, though they will be measured rather than front-loaded. This approach reflects confidence in the economy’s resilience while ensuring inflation continues to trend lower.
Historically, years ending in 5 have shown strong equity market performance under the decennial theory. Combined with improving liquidity conditions and a supportive policy backdrop, the setup favors continued strength in growth and technology-driven sectors.
From a technical perspective, the NASDAQ has already established a hard low near the 22,900 level, which now serves as a strong support zone. Since then, the index has been consistently forming higher highs and higher lows, reinforcing the bullish structure. This price action confirms that buyers remain in control and strengthens the case for continued momentum in the months ahead.
In my view, these factors create a durable foundation for the NASDAQ to remain bullish, with momentum likely to build as markets look ahead to a more accommodative environment.
US100 – Short Setup Based on Visible WeaknessThe Nasdaq 100 (US100) is currently trading around 23,700 and has shown clear signs of weakness in the past few hours.
On the 1-hour chart, the price has tested the area between 23,700 and 23,720 multiple times but failed to break through. Moving averages (yellow, green, and red lines) are flat or turning downward, which signals that bullish momentum is fading.
Trade Setup
Entry Zone: 23,700 – 23,720
This area has acted as resistance several times, meaning the price keeps bouncing off it without breaking higher.
Stop Loss: Above 23,827
This is the most recent clear high on the chart. If price breaks above this level, the setup is invalid.
Target 1 (T1): 23,515
This level acted as support on August 13 and 15. Price bounced here twice, making it a realistic first target.
Target 2 (T2): 23,246
This level was support on August 8 and 9 and could be reached if T1 breaks.
Why Short?
Price is below the 21 EMA on 4h timeframe (yellow line): This is a sign of weakening trend strength.
Price rejected multiple times at the moving averages: Buyers failed to push higher.
No new highs: Even after several attempts, price could not break above 23,827.
What supports the short idea right now
Tech under pressure: Meta and Palantir are both trading lower after weak follow-ups on AI and earnings momentum. This drags on overall sector sentiment.
No new highs: The market failed again to break above the last swing high at 23,827, which strengthens the case for continued consolidation or downside.
Dollar strength creeping in : Ongoing geopolitical tension (Ukraine, Trump talks) is pushing the USD up slightly – this tends to weigh on tech stocks.
Jackson Hole caution : Markets are waiting for Powell’s comments later this week. Until then, many traders stay risk-off, which favors downside movement or at least weak buying.
Summary
📉 Short entry: 23,700 – 23,720
⛔ Stop: Above 23,827
🎯 T1: 23,515
🎯 T2: 23,246
No financial advice – just my personal trade idea based on what the chart shows and the current macro situation.
And don’t forget: the market has two moods – “not yet” and “too late.” :D
NASDAQ: 10:1 R/R Setup - One More High Before Major CorrectionSharing my current outlook on NASDAQ with a high-probability setup offering exceptional risk-reward. 📊
**🎯 The Setup:**
I'm expecting one more push to new all-time highs from the yellow line around 23,000. This would offer a **10:1 risk-to-reward ratio** with the stop loss just below the recent low. 🚀
**📍 Yellow Line Logic:**
This level represents my experience-based zone just shy of the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement. I've observed that when price reaches the 0.786 level, it tends to result in a complete reversal more often than not. This yellow line sits in that "sweet spot" where buyers typically step in. 🎯
**📈 Chart Structure Support:**
The overall chart pattern suggests a higher probability of making new highs rather than a complete reversal from current levels. The structure is bullish despite the recent pullback. ✅
**🔄 Bigger Picture Scenario:**
After the anticipated new high, I expect a significant retracement back toward the previous high (red line area). However, this would likely be just a healthy correction before the bull run resumes for the remainder of the year. 📉➡️📈
**🧠 Key Insight:**
Sometimes the best trades come when the market gives you that "one more push" setup. The risk is small relative to the potential reward, making this a compelling opportunity if the setup materializes. 💡
📈 **This trade setup offers a risk-to-reward ratio of 10:1.** Without including fees, the breakeven win rate for this trade would be approximately 9.09%. Knowing these figures in advance helps me avoid emotional trading. 🧠
💡 **Pro Tip**: If you often find yourself trading based on emotions, I recommend doing this type of pre-planning and quantifying your setups before execution — it can be a simple yet highly effective improvement. ✅
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**Trading is simple.** You don't need multiple indicators or dozens of lines on your chart. A clean and simple chart often works best — it keeps your decisions consistent and reduces uncertainty. Sure, it might not look flashy, and my analysis may seem a bit "plain" compared to others… but that's how I like it. If you find this analysis useful, feel free to follow me for more updates.
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*Disclaimer: This post is for general informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or a service targeting specific investors, and should not be considered illegal or restricted information in any jurisdiction.*
NASDAQ Technicals
NASDAQ (NAS100) Technical Analysis
Based on the 4 hour chart, NASDAQ (NAS100) is currently showing range bound price action, indicating a period of consolidation after a recent downtrend. This price behavior suggests a tug of war between bulls and bears, with neither side able to decisively break through key support or resistance levels.
Key Levels and Price Zones
The market is trading within a defined range. The key support zone is identified around 23,055 to 22,958. This is a critical area, as a clean break below it would signal a continuation of the previous bearish trend. The primary resistance zone is located between 23,309 and 23,418. This zone must be broken and held for a potential bullish reversal to be considered.
Bullish and Bearish Scenarios
* Bullish Scenario: For a bullish trend to resume, the price needs to break above the 23,418 resistance level. A confirmed breakout with a subsequent retest of this level as support could open the door for a move towards the higher resistance at 23,736. Traders should watch for a strong bullish candle closing above this zone and an increase in buying volume to confirm the breakout.
* Bearish Scenario: The bearish outlook remains intact as long as the price stays below the resistance zone. A break below the support zone around 22,958 would be a significant bearish signal. This could lead to a further drop toward the lower range's support at 22,690. A strong bearish candle closing below the support zone would provide confirmation.
Risk Management and Final Thoughts
Given the current consolidation, traders should be cautious about initiating new positions without clear confirmation. The most prudent approach is to wait for a definitive breakout above resistance or a breakdown below support. Trading within the range can be highly volatile and is generally considered higher risk. Placing stop loss orders outside of the key support and resistance zones is crucial to manage potential risks effectively. The current technical screenshot of NAS100 is one of indecision, and a significant move is likely on the horizon once one of the boundaries is breached.
NASDAQ Index Analysis (US100 / NASDAQ):The index shows a long-term bullish trend (daily timeframe), while the short-term trend on the hourly chart is bearish. Currently, the price is trading near 23,200.
🔻 Bearish Scenario:
If the price breaks below 23,160 and holds, it may head toward 23,000, and with continued selling pressure, it could extend to 22,800.
🔺 Bullish Scenario (Most Likely):
If buying momentum appears and the price manages to break and hold above 23,350, this could support further upside toward 23,500, and strong bullish continuation may open the way to test 23,680.
“How I Trade NAS100 with 4H Order Flow + 15M Precision Entry”Here’s my step-by-step process for catching high probability NAS100 setups 👇
1️⃣ Direction from 4H Order Flow
– I only look for trades in the direction of the 4H structure.
– My key levels are 4H OBs and 4H FVGs.
2️⃣ Patience at the Key Level
– No random trades. I wait until price reacts to one of my 4H levels.
3️⃣ 15M Entry Model (MSS + IFVG)
– Once price reacts, I refine entry on the 15M chart using MSS (Market Structure Shift) + IFVG (Inverted Fair Value Gap).
– This keeps risk tight and entries precise.
4️⃣ Risk Management
– I always place stop loss at the invalidation point.
– Targeting a minimum of 1:2 Risk to Reward.
⚡ The edge is simple: Only trade what pays me. Nothing else.