USOIL (WTI) Gann & Harmonic Pattern Points to Major Move!🛢️ 🛢️ USOIL (WTI CRUDE) Points to Major Move! ⚡ 📊
💹 Comprehensive Price Action Strategy | September 2025 Edition 🎯
📈 MARKET SNAPSHOT
Asset: USOIL (SPOTCRUDE/WTI CASH)
Current Closing Price: $64.413
Date: September 6, 2025
Market Status: 🔴 Critical Support Zone Testing
🎯 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
WTI Crude Oil is currently trading at $64.413, positioned at a crucial technical juncture. Our multi-timeframe analysis reveals a bearish-to-neutral bias with potential for a significant reversal if key support levels hold. The convergence of multiple technical indicators suggests heightened volatility ahead, presenting both risk and opportunity for astute traders.
📊 COMPREHENSIVE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
🕯️ Candlestick Pattern Analysis
The recent price action has formed a Bullish Hammer pattern at the $64.00 psychological support level, suggesting potential exhaustion of selling pressure. This formation, combined with increasing volume, indicates possible accumulation phase initiation.
Key Patterns Identified:
- ✅ Bullish Hammer at support
- ⚠️ Evening Star formation on 4H chart
- 📍 Doji cluster indicating indecision
🌊 Elliott Wave Analysis
Current wave count suggests we're completing Wave 5 of a larger corrective structure:
Primary Count: Completing Wave C of ABC correction
Alternative Count: Wave 4 consolidation before final Wave 5 push
Target Zones:
- Bullish: $72.50-$74.00 (Wave 5 extension)
- Bearish: $58.00-$60.00 (Wave C completion)
📐 Harmonic Patterns
A Bullish Bat Pattern is forming on the daily timeframe:
- X: $78.45 (Recent High)
- A: $61.20 (Recent Low)
- B: $71.85 (0.618 Retracement)
- C: $64.41 (Current Price)
- D: $59.80-$60.50 (Projected - 0.886 XA)
Trading Implication: Watch for reversal signals near $60.00 for high-probability long entries.
🔄 Wyckoff Analysis
Current market structure suggests:
Phase: Potential Spring Test within Trading Range
Volume Analysis: Declining volume on recent decline = Lack of selling pressure
Smart Money Behavior: Accumulation signals emerging
Projected Move: Re-accumulation before markup phase
📊 W.D. Gann Analysis
Gann Square of 9 Calculations:
- Current Price: $64.413 sits on 225° angle
- Next Resistance: $68.00 (270° angle)
- Critical Support: $61.00 (180° angle)
Gann Time Cycles:
- September 15, 2025: Major time pivot ⏰
- September 22, 2025: Secondary cycle completion
Gann Fan Analysis:
- Price respecting 2x1 angle from July low
- Break above 1x1 angle at $66.50 signals trend change
☁️ Ichimoku Cloud Analysis
Current Position: Price below cloud - Bearish bias
Tenkan-sen: $65.80 (Immediate resistance)
Kijun-sen: $67.25 (Major resistance)
Cloud Support: $62.00-$63.50
Chikou Span: Bearish, below price 26 periods ago
📉 KEY TECHNICAL INDICATORS
📊 RSI (14-Period)
Current Reading: 42.5
Status: Approaching oversold territory
Divergence: Bullish divergence forming on 4H chart
Signal: Potential reversal zone approaching
📈 Bollinger Bands
Upper Band: $68.20
Middle Band (20 SMA): $65.85
Lower Band: $63.50
Current Position: Testing lower band
Volatility: Bands contracting - Breakout imminent
💹 VWAP Analysis
Daily VWAP: $64.85
Weekly Anchored VWAP: $66.20
Monthly VWAP: $67.50
Volume Profile POC: $65.00 (High volume node)
📊 Moving Averages Confluence
20 EMA: $65.85 ⬇️
50 SMA: $67.20 ⬇️
100 EMA: $69.50 ⬇️
200 SMA: $71.00 ⬇️
Status: Death cross on daily (50/200) - Bearish medium-term
🎯 TRADING STRATEGY
⚡ INTRADAY TRADING (5M-1H)
LONG SETUP 🟢
Entry Zone: $63.80-$64.20
Stop Loss: $63.40 (-1%)
Target 1: $64.80 (+1.5%)
Target 2: $65.40 (+2.5%)
Target 3: $66.00 (+3.5%)
Risk/Reward: 1:3.5
SHORT SETUP 🔴
Entry Zone: $65.60-$65.90
Stop Loss: $66.30 (-1%)
Target 1: $65.00 (-1.5%)
Target 2: $64.40 (-2.5%)
Target 3: $63.80 (-3.5%)
Risk/Reward: 1:3.5
📈 SWING TRADING (4H-DAILY)
BULLISH SCENARIO 🚀
Entry: $64.00-$64.50 (Current levels)
Stop Loss: $61.50 (-4%)
Target 1: $68.00 (+5.5%)
Target 2: $72.00 (+11.8%)
Target 3: $75.50 (+17.2%)
Position Size: 2% portfolio risk
BEARISH SCENARIO 📉
Entry: $65.80-$66.20 (Resistance retest)
Stop Loss: $67.50 (+2%)
Target 1: $62.00 (-6%)
Target 2: $59.50 (-10%)
Target 3: $57.00 (-14%)
Position Size: 1.5% portfolio risk
🗓️ WEEKLY FORECAST
Monday-Tuesday (Sept 9-10) 📅
- Expected Range: $63.50-$65.80
- Bias: Neutral with bullish undertone
- Key Level: Watch $64.00 support hold
Wednesday-Thursday (Sept 11-12) 📅
- Expected Range: $64.00-$67.00
- Bias: Potential breakout day
- Catalyst: EIA Inventory Data
Friday (Sept 13) 📅
- Expected Range: $65.00-$68.50
- Bias: Trend continuation
- Note: Options expiry volatility
🌍 MARKET CONTEXT & FUNDAMENTALS
Geopolitical Factors 🌐
- ⚠️ Middle East tensions supporting price floor
- 🇨🇳 China demand concerns capping upside
- 🇺🇸 SPR refill discussions providing support
Supply/Demand Dynamics ⚖️
- OPEC+ production cuts extended
- US shale production moderating
- Global inventory draws accelerating
Economic Indicators 📊
- Dollar Index weakening (Bullish for Oil)
- Global growth concerns (Bearish pressure)
- Inflation expectations rising (Supportive)
⚠️ RISK MANAGEMENT
Position Sizing Guidelines 💰
Intraday: Max 1-2% account risk per trade
Swing: Max 3-5% account risk per position
Correlation Risk: Monitor energy sector exposure
Stop Loss Strategies 🛡️
1. ATR-Based: 1.5x ATR from entry
2. Structure-Based: Below/above key S/R levels
3. Time-Based: Exit if no movement in 2-3 candles
Risk Factors ⚠️
- 🔴 Break below $61.50 invalidates bullish thesis
- 🔴 Unexpected OPEC+ policy changes
- 🔴 Rapid Dollar strengthening
- 🟢 Surprise inventory draws
- 🟢 Geopolitical escalation
🎯 KEY LEVELS TO WATCH
SUPPORT LEVELS 🟢
S1: $63.50 (Immediate)
S2: $61.50 (Critical)
S3: $59.00 (Major)
S4: $57.00 (Yearly Low)
RESISTANCE LEVELS 🔴
R1: $65.80 (Immediate)
R2: $67.25 (Daily 50MA)
R3: $69.50 (Daily 100MA)
R4: $72.00 (Major)
💡 PRO TRADING TIPS
1. 🎯 Best Entry Times: London/NY overlap (8-11 AM EST)
2. 📊 Volume Confirmation: Look for >20% above average
3. 🔄 Correlation Trades: Monitor USD/CAD inverse relationship
4. ⏰ Avoid Trading: 30 mins before/after EIA releases
5. 📈 Scale Strategy: Add to winners, not losers
🔮 MONTH-END PRICE TARGETS
September 2025 Projections:
Bullish Target: $72.00-$74.00 🎯
Base Case: $66.00-$68.00 📊
Bearish Target: $58.00-$60.00 📉
Probability Assessment:
- Bullish Scenario: 35% 📈
- Base Case: 45% ➡️
- Bearish Scenario: 20% 📉
📌 CONCLUSION & ACTION PLAN
USOIL presents a compelling risk/reward opportunity at current levels. The confluence of technical support at $64.00, combined with oversold conditions and potential harmonic pattern completion, suggests a tactical long position with tight risk management is warranted.
Recommended Strategy:
1. Primary: Accumulate long positions $63.50-$64.50
2. Alternative: Wait for breakout above $66.00 for momentum trades
3. Hedge: Consider put options if below $61.50
📝 TRADING CHECKLIST
Before entering any position:
- ✅ Confirm volume supports move
- ✅ Check RSI for divergences
- ✅ Verify multiple timeframe alignment
- ✅ Set stop loss before entry
- ✅ Calculate position size
- ✅ Review correlation with DXY
- ✅ Check economic calendar
- ✅ Assess market sentiment
🏷️ *Last Updated: September 6, 2025, 12:54 AM UTC+4*
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⚠️Disclaimer: This post is intended solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed herein are derived from technical analysis and are shared for informational purposes only. The stock market inherently carries risks, including the potential for capital loss. Therefore, readers are strongly advised to exercise prudent judgment before making any investment decisions. We assume no liability for any actions taken based on this content. For personalized guidance, it is recommended to consult a certified financial advisor.
