Next week's crude oil trading strategyFundamentals: Inventory liquidation continues + OPEC + production increase debate, support margin strengthens
1.Inventory data remains positive, demand resilience verified
The latest EIA data shows that U.S. crude oil inventories have continued to deplete unexpectedly for two consecutive weeks, gasoline inventories have recorded the largest decline in the past 5 years on a year-on-year basis, and the inventories of the three major oil products are all below the 5-year average by 10%-15%, significantly easing the inventory pressure. Although inventories in the Cushing region have slightly increased, the overall de-accumulation trend has not changed. In addition, China's petrochemical plants' purchase volume in November is expected to increase by 5%-8% compared with the previous month, and terminal demand provides rigid support for oil prices.
1.OPEC + production increase debate intensifies, supply constraint not eased
OPEC + has obvious differences in the pace of production increase: Saudi Arabia hopes to expand production to regain market share, while Russia advocates maintaining a moderate increase of 137,000 barrels per day to avoid supply过剩 suppressing oil prices. The fulfillment rate of production increase in November was less than 60%， and the UAE has a 9.500 barrels per day gap due to oilfield maintenance， and Russia has not fully released idle production capacity. In addition， Saudi Arabia's "voluntary reduction of 1 million barrels per day" policy continues until the end of 2025， the supply side's protection for oil prices exceeds market expectations. Institutions predict that this week， OPEC + may maintain a small increase in production or suspend the increase， further limiting the supply increase.
1.Refinery profit supports processing demand
Although the diesel crack spread in the New York port has declined， it is still 40% higher than the same period in 2024， and the gasoline crack spread remains at a high level， supporting the stable operation of U.S. refineries at 87.2% and the daily crude oil processing volume at 17.3 million barrels， providing stable support for procurement demand.
Next week's crude oil trading strategy
buy：60-60.5
tp:61.5-62
sl:59
