Nvidia Earnings Preview: The Guidance GauntletNvidia reports after the bell on Wednesday, and once again the market is treating it less like an earnings call and more like a policy event. At a $4.4 trillion valuation and with eight straight beat-and-raise quarters behind it, expectations are sky high. The numbers themselves are unlikely to surprise. What really matters is how management handles guidance on China, Blackwell shipments, and the durability of AI demand.
Numbers Matter, Guidance Matters More
Consensus sits around $48 billion in revenue and $1.02 earnings-per-share (EPS), implying year-on-year growth above 50%. Those are extraordinary figures for a mega-cap, but the bar has been set by Nvidia itself. The market already expect another blockbuster quarter, which is why the stock has gained nearly 25% this year.
Guidance is where the tension lies. China remains the key swing factor after months of shifting regulation. Licensing restrictions on H20 chips forced Nvidia into a $4.5 billion charge earlier this year, and the new 15% revenue skim on exports has made the picture even messier. Most analysts expect management to keep guidance conservative, excluding China for now while pointing to compliant new products such as the rumoured B30. A lack of clarity here could rattle confidence.
Beyond China, hyperscaler demand is the second focal point. Around 90% of Nvidia’s sales now come from data centres, leaving the company reliant on just a handful of customers. With Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Meta collectively spending over $300 billion on capex this year, the opportunity is huge, but even small shifts in timing could dent results. Concentration risk at this scale is something the Street won’t ignore.
The Blackwell ramp rounds out the story. Nvidia needs to prove that hype has turned into hardware. Investors want detail on system-level shipments, lead times, and throughput for NVL72 racks. If management can show that execution is running smoothly while margins hold steady in the low 70s, belief in Nvidia’s ability to sustain its dominance will strengthen. If not, even a strong top line could be overshadowed by doubts about delivery.
Range in Focus
Nvidia’s relentless uptrend has paused in recent weeks, with prices consolidating sideways. This mean reversion has pulled the stock back toward its rising 50-day moving average. The short-term support and resistance levels created by the consolidation are now strategically significant.
A decisive break and close above the range could trigger the next leg higher, giving traders a clean breakout setup. Conversely, an earnings disappointment could see price break lower, with downside targets toward the confluent support zone formed by the 200-day moving average and VWAP anchored to the April lows. The range also offers clear stop placement: in the case of a bullish breakout, stops can be placed back within the range below broken resistance, while a bearish breakdown setup would favour stops just above broken support.
NVDA Daily Candle Chart
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