Trade ideas
Why Zcash might be a lead balloonHow I converted from Zcash to BTC.
Last few months I devoted my time to investigate Zcash (going beyond technical analysts) and come to the conclusion that I need to sell all my ZEC position and buy BTC.
Since I haven't found concentrated/summarized thoughts at one place, I decided to make a tweet so others can find this useful.
So let me name few thoughts:
• Hardly anyone seems to be using Zcash’s anonymity features (estimated to be like 0,1 %) ...I found only ZecWallet supporting these transactions. (Consider how old is ZEC and no privacy adaption in wallets). If one wants to use it, he needs 5 GB of RAM and 25gb free disk to run the program. Therefore it don't see it as a mobile friendly wallet.
• Zcash mining is incredibly centralized.
• Zooko publicly admitted that he doesn’t know how Zk-snarks works (see: https://youtu.be/P6RLjcGVUnw).
• Expiring developers funding in 2020. Since developers in ECC are supposed to be unique, I see no developers when ECC is gone. Moreover let’s face it, ZEC developers salaries are above average (for non US resident)
• Knowledge of Zk-snarks is not owned by ECC (Electric Coin Company). Zk-snarks are not so new, as they were discussed and experimented in 80`s, and after a while more and more scientific papers were published decade before Zcash ... so Zk-snarks are “open source knowledge”.
• Albeit Zk-snarks protocol is monetary system is relatively new and has yet to undergo the test of time. On the other hand more and more currencies adopt just these/similar privacy features step by step and i don’t see anymore the huge advantage Zcash had 3 years ago. This combined with most of the above reasons and the current development makes me believe that the future won’t be so bright. Zcash should gain trust and popularity in first 2 years.
• consider this; what keeps a gigantic army of BTC developers back to integrate Zk-snarks in Bitcoin, not as primary function...the same as ZEC has it, choose it if you want to?
• ECC team already help implemented JPMorgan ZEC privacy features... so when ECC developers will be on the street next year (they sure will miss above-average salaries... the last thing they will work for free for ZEC (from my point of view -> ZEC developers paid by ZEC holders to develop Zk-snarks for JPMorgan) kinda irony
• Zcash community forum - nothing seriously happening there. I see only few people with superior brains there (sorry as they are neither developers nor ECC officials), yet no serious involvement from ECC and developers
• Ethereum team already working on integrating Zk-snarks.
• E.Snowden did mentioned that he likes ZEC privacy features only because Zk-snarks encryption. He clearly said that others coins will do the same and that's a great thing.
• Ycash “friendly” fork (free money of thin air project) Having ZEC officials even support this fork
• REAL trading volume is so small (when doing this notes last week was 2,3 M$)
• For the end a story. Two years ago AlphaBay (popular darknet marketplaces) back then has officially announced that Zcash is available as a payment option on its platform. 5 days after that announcement, AlphaBay got seized by law enforcement. Just 5 days after it’s integration of Zcash (coincidence?)
• Looking forward for good arguments why I am being wrong.
I'm a Zcash permabull. Massive money flow bullish divergence. The price has made lower highs and lower lows since August 2018, while making higher highs and higher lows on the money flow index since August 2018. Very nice trend as we approach 1 year from Zcash halving in October. I'm accumulating, bleeding all over myself, and buckling the fuck down. Zcash is in good company seeing adoption from Flexa network, as well as the Gemini listing and New York masonic regulators giving us their satanic blessing. BTFD and HODL.
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ZEC - Not good
It doesn't have a good situation and we are sat on a TL right now (4H).
I expect to break the bottom.
Only buy if it reaches the 6000 zone or after a confirmed break above 8000.
If 6000 support gets broken and price reaches to 5000 we need to analyze it again but mostly I expect an impulse bullish move
Targets:
8000
10000
12300
Stop loss 6000
TLs: 12 Aug - 14 and 18 Sep (timezone)
Zcash - can the anonymous coins bring profit?Zcash is the only coin from our list which is located in the green zone. Its rate has gone up by 1.7% over the last 24 hours.
From the technical point of view, the price is not going to recover due to the rising RSI indicator. Moreover, the trading volume keeps decreasing, suggesting the upcoming decline to the support at 0.0068 BTC.
Zcash/Btc...Below the death wedgeWeekly RSI still above 25, Zec/Btc has rarely fallen below the death wedge, and when it has the ratio always rallies back. We are either getting very close to a nice bounce, or look out below. At this point, fuck it, just buy more.
Zec/Btc looking for a bounce on weekly @ 25 RSIBeing all in on Zec since 1 million Satoshi price, I am naturally a little biased. However, there is a bullish divergence on this high time frame Zec/Btc pair. I believe this pair will naturally find a balance at above 2 million satoshis as the zcash halving approaches next fall. Keep in mind how much power and control the Zcash miners have to keep price suppressed. They are generating and controlling 0.1% of additional Zec supply DAILY... Suppressed price means less mining competition, why would the miners want to jack price to the moon on a coin that is already profitable to mine at current price? A moon shot now would only attract more hash rate and give current Zcash miners less power over the distribution. Therefore I believe there is a lot of open market price suppression by miners while whales accumulate via over the counter buys. I will keep adding, I think Zcash is a SOLID project, all the founder reward drama is way over hyped, and the btc pair will return to 5 million sats at some point in the coming years. Might have to suffer seeing 500,000 sats first, but the likelihood of the upside is high given the immense disadvantage of the current stock to flow ratio of Zcash. The supply squeeze next year will be very significant as a percentage of inflation, as annual rate will drop from 33% to 12%.






















