Last few months I devoted my time to investigate Zcash (going beyond technical analysts) and come to the conclusion that I need to sell all my ZEC position and buy BTC .
Since I haven't found concentrated/summarized thoughts at one place, I decided to make a tweet so others can find this useful.
So let me name few thoughts:
• Hardly anyone seems to be using Zcash’s anonymity features (estimated to be like 0,1 %) ...I found only ZecWallet supporting these transactions. (Consider how old is ZEC and no privacy adaption in wallets). If one wants to use it, he needs 5 GB of RAM and 25gb free disk to run the program. Therefore it don't see it as a mobile friendly wallet.
• Zcash mining is incredibly centralized.
• Zooko publicly admitted that he doesn’t know how Zk-snarks works (see: https://youtu.be/P6RLjcGVUnw).
• Expiring developers funding in 2020. Since developers in are supposed to be unique, I see no developers when is gone. Moreover let’s face it, ZEC developers salaries are above average (for non US resident)
• Knowledge of Zk-snarks is not owned by (Electric Coin Company). Zk-snarks are not so new, as they were discussed and experimented in 80`s, and after a while more and more scientific papers were published decade before Zcash ... so Zk-snarks are “open source knowledge”.
• Albeit Zk-snarks protocol is monetary system is relatively new and has yet to undergo the test of time. On the other hand more and more currencies adopt just these/similar privacy features step by step and i don’t see anymore the huge advantage Zcash had 3 years ago. This combined with most of the above reasons and the current development makes me believe that the future won’t be so bright . Zcash should gain trust and popularity in first 2 years.
• consider this; what keeps a gigantic army of BTC developers back to integrate Zk-snarks in Bitcoin , not as primary function...the same as ZEC has it, choose it if you want to?
• team already help implemented JPMorgan ZEC privacy features... so when developers will be on the street next year (they sure will miss above-average salaries... the last thing they will work for free for ZEC (from my point of view -> ZEC developers paid by ZEC holders to develop Zk-snarks for JPMorgan) kinda irony
• Zcash community forum - nothing seriously happening there. I see only few people with superior brains there (sorry as they are neither developers nor officials), yet no serious involvement from and developers
• Ethereum team already working on integrating Zk-snarks.
• E.Snowden did mentioned that he likes ZEC privacy features only because Zk-snarks encryption. He clearly said that others coins will do the same and that's a great thing.
• Ycash “friendly” fork (free money of thin air project) Having ZEC officials even support this fork
• REAL trading is so small (when doing this notes last week was 2,3 M$)
• For the end a story. Two years ago AlphaBay (popular darknet marketplaces) back then has officially announced that Zcash is available as a payment option on its platform. 5 days after that announcement, AlphaBay got seized by law enforcement. Just 5 days after it’s integration of Zcash (coincidence?)
• Looking forward for good arguments why I am being wrong.
Please note this is beyond technical analysis. If fundamentals are so deeply wrong ... no patterns in tehnical analysis can help.