The Fed have pushed back on committing to another 25bp cut in December, maintaining a data-dependent stance. Traders will keep a close watch on next week’s ADP employment and ISM reports to gauge the likelihood of a Christmas cut from the Fed. I update my longer-term outlook for the US dollar index and review the FX majors to pick out the strong from the...
Gold is on track for its second week lower, its first such bearish sequence since June. But clues on price action and options positioning suggests upside risks for gold could prevail.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index.
The less-dovish-than-expected FOMC meeting overshadowed Australia’s hot CPI report, sending AUD/USD lower after a five-day winning streak. Price action printed a bearish pinbar around the 0.66 handle, aligning with the October VPOC and monthly pivot point — a confluence that triggered profit-taking among bulls.
On the hourly chart, a bullish pinbar and doji have...
The rebound in bitcoin I warned about last week has come to fruition. Yet despite its recovery above the 200-day EMA, I remain bearish on the higher timeframes. Looking at bitcoin futures, I explain why I think bears are lurking above and may be happy to fade into rallies towards 120k.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
Australia's Q3 inflation figures have just dropped, and all surprised to the upside. Not only does this kill hopes of a cut next week — and likely for the rest of the year — but it also suggests the RBA may have already reached the terminal rate of this cutting cycle. I take a quick look at the figures, AUD/USD, and the ASX 200.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at...
While I believe Bitcoin still has further downside potential in the coming weeks, there’s also scope for a near-term bounce based on how futures traders are currently positioned.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com.
A small doji formed on Wednesday, snapping a three-day losing streak for EUR/USD. The session low respected the 100-day EMA as support, while the brief dip below the monthly S1 pivot proved to be a false break.
The bias remains bullish while prices hold above the 1.1544 swing low. Bulls could look to buy dips towards the monthly S1 pivot in anticipation of a move...
Gold's selloff on Tuesday was its fifth most bearish day's trade since 1970 - according to spot prices from LSEG. Clearly this is a significant event, especially when we consider it occurred at its record high. Let's take a closer look at technical levels.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com.
Friday’s bearish hammer marked the second failed attempt for EUR/AUD to break out of its 550-pip range. Momentum has since turned lower, with prices continuing to respect the weekly pivot point as resistance.
Notably, the previous failed breakout also led to a move back toward the lower end of the range, suggesting a similar pattern could unfold.
For now, bears...
While my bias for the US dollar index remains bearish on the higher timeframes, a near-term bullish setup may have emerged. And that could see a pullback on EUR/USD and possible GBP/USD.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com.
USD/CAD remains in an established uptrend on the daily chart, although momentum showed signs of turning lower on Friday. Still, the 1.40 handle and monthly R1 pivot sit close by as a key support zone, making this area pivotal for both bulls and bears in the near term.
If the support zone holds, the bias favours a move toward 1.41, near the monthly R2 pivot....
A two-bar bearish reversal pattern (dark cloud cover) has formed around the monthly D1 pivot, suggesting that momentum could temporarily shift lower. Bears may look to fade retracements within the reversal zone and maintain a short-term bearish bias while prices remain below last week’s high.
The 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, and monthly pivot point could serve as...
Bearish volatility diminished last week, with AUD/USD printing a small bullish candle on the weekly chart. The daily chart suggests demand resides around 0.6450 with two lower spikes arriving on Tuesday and Friday, despite softer jobs figures from Australia reviving some hopes of a November RAB cut.
With prices having recovered back above the 200-day EMA and...
AUD/JPY pulled back around 3.1% from its recent high just below the 101 handle, but price has since held above 97.85, showing early signs of near-term strength. A small spinning-top doji formed near the lower end of the range, hinting that dip buyers are starting to step in.
On the 1-hour chart, AUD/JPY has carved out three consecutive higher lows, the most...
Using correlations with Wall Street indices, I outline why I think Bitcoin could be in for a bounce - though its rally could be limited before new lows are seen.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
GBP/USD looks set to extend its bounce on the daily chart, having found support at the monthly S1 pivot and 200-day EMA. The daily RSI (2) reached a heavily oversold level on Thursday ahead
of the bullish inside day at support.
A bull flag is also forming on the 4-hour chart. Given the strength of the rebound from support, the bias is for a break above the...
A small symmetrical triangle has formed on the 1-hour chart, suggesting an upside break could be pending. However, with the elongated bearish engulfing candle that appeared on Friday after an extended move, I suspect any rally from here may be limited.
Bears could look to fade into moves towards the 153 handle and maintain a bearish bias while prices remain...
With gold trading less than $120 from the $4,000 milestone, it would be rude not to test that key level. While market positioning suggests a move beyond it is possible, options traders appear to be bracing for higher volatility — or even a pullback.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index
