Asset managers have been increasing their net-short exposure against the Canadian dollar in recent weeks. And with recent inflation data cooling bets of multiple Fed cuts and the US dollar regaining strength, USD/CAD could be looking for a move to 1.39 or 1.40.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
A notable boost to Japanese yen strength since my last yen video has seen momentum turn in my favour for USD/JPY, CAD/JPY and CHF/JPY. Today is a quick update to the levels.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst and City Index and Forex.com.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) finally delivered the 25bp cut I anticipated in July. I take a quick look at how they have updated the economic forecasts that matter, and how Aussie markets reacted.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
Some interesting setups are forming on the daily charts of USD/JPY, CAD/JPY and CHF/JPY. Keep in mind that USD/JPY will be more sensitive to the incoming US inflation report, which leaves the potential for some divergences to form among the Japanese yen pairs. Overall, my bias is for them to move lower in due course.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst and City Index...
It has been a week since the US dollar plunged following a weak NFP report. Given it has consolidated within a tight range near last week's low, alongside price action clues on EUR/USD, USD/JPY and USD/CHF, I suspect the dollar could bounce before its losses resume.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
GBP/JPY is trying to notch its third bullish day heading into today's Bank of England (BOE) meeting. But with a cut expected and the potential for a dovish tone, I suspect its upside could be limited. Besides, the technical clues on the daily and weekly chart suggest we may have seen a major top in July.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
The yen is broadly weaker, which is even allowing a weaker Australian dollar to rise. And with a decent bullish trend on the daily chart, I am now seeking dips within a recent consolidation range in anticipation of a move to 99 or even 100.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
The RBA defied expectations of a cut in July, despite soft trimmed mean inflation figures in the monthly CPI report. The quarterly figures have now dropped, which I suspect leaves little wriggle room to hold at 2.85% in August. I 6ake a look at the quarterly and monthly inflation prints that matter, then wrap up on AUD/USD.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City...
A bearish engulfing candle has formed on the daily WTI crude oil chart, with its high perfectly respecting the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement just beneath the $70 handle. Given that the bounce from the June low has been relatively weak compared to the sharp decline from $78, I’m now on alert for a potential break beneath the $64 support level.
That said, the 200-day...
GBP/JPY closed lower for a third day on Wednesday, with bearish momentum increasing thanks to political tensions in the UK and dovish comments from BOE voting members.
While the daily RSI (2) is oversold, there could still be room for a move to 195 over the near term. Its less than a day’s trading range away using recent volatility levels, and it also sits near...
Seasonality can be a useful tool if used wisely (and in context) with current sentiment and news flows. Seasonality really is a backwards looking indicator that can easily be overpowered by key macro drivers. But its strength comes in to play when seasonality aligns with the macro landscape.
With that in mind, I share my seasonality matrix for indices, metals...
I have long said that the RBA could cut in July, and today's CPI figures all but confirm one is on tap. But with AUD/USD and AUD/JPY are rising, will bears get their say?
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
AUD/JPY failed to follow through on a bullish breakout above 94.00, despite initial signs of strength from a bullish hammer and inverted H&S pattern. The pair has since printed a bearish engulfing candle on the daily chart to take prices near the lows of its range of the past week.
With the 1-hour RSI (2) hitting oversold levels, a minor bounce is possible, but...
The ASX 200 has drifted lower since its latest record high was set six days ago. 8500 held as support before doji formed on Tuesday to mark a false break of this key level. ASX 200 futures also tried but failed to break beneath it overnight.
Given the bullish divergence on the 1-hour RSI (14) and RSI (2), the bias is to seek dips towards 8500 for a cheeky long...
With the conclusion of the FOMC meeting just hours away, I wanted to move away from the US dollar and look at some crosses. Here are some interesting setups on yen pairs to keep in mind.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
AUD/JPY bounced sharply on Thursday, snapping a 3-day losing streak with a solid bullish-range session. The rally kicked off from a bullish pinbar above 92, where the higher low reinforces support and the broader bullish case.
The 1-hour chart shows a clean breakout from an inverted head and shoulders pattern, pointing to a target around 95.50. With resistance at...
Oil prices surged over 12% in Asia on Middle East headlines, sparking a surge of volatility across safe-haven currencies and stock market futures during thin trade.
It felt like a good time to provide food for thought to newer traders looking to chase these moves, highlight the mockery geopolitics can make of technical analysis with recent examples, and provide...
Crude oil has enjoyed a decent rally in recent weeks thanks to improved sentiment and OPEC+ scaling back production. Yet momentum turned against bulls on Tuesday, despite positive trade talks between the US and China. Today I discuss whether this could be a turning point for oil, or simply a bump in the road.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
