A Correction Was Inevitable at Some Point
Against the US dollar (USD), the price of Bitcoin (BTC) has been on a tear in recent weeks, refreshing all-time highs of $73,845. The recent correction, however, has some traders questioning how low the market can drop. Based on the current uptrend, in place since bottoming at $15,581 in late 2022, three corrections...
8-1 Vote in Favour of Bank Rate Hold
Following the Fed holding its Fed funds target rate at 5.25%-5.50%, and the Swiss National Bank (SNB) surprising markets this morning and cutting its overnight Policy Rate by 25bps, the Bank of England (BoE) followed the Fed and left the Bank Rate on hold at 5.25% (a 16-year peak) for a fifth consecutive meeting. This will...
Following the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) standing pat on rates and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) raising its Policy Rate by 10bps, consequently putting a cap on NIRP, as well as ending YCC, the focus shifts to today’s FOMC rate decision at 6:00 pm GMT.
Fed Funds Rate to Remain at 5.25%-5.50%
It is widely expected that the Fed will maintain its current...
Following a raft of mixed messages from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and stronger-than-expected wage negotiations for corporate Japan, the central bank stepped up overnight and ended eight years of negative interest rate policy (NIRP) as well as putting a cap on yield curve control (YCC). The BoJ raised its Policy Rate by 10bps for the first time in nearly two decades,...
Price action on the monthly chart of the EUR/USD offers an interesting technical landscape to work with. You will acknowledge that support from $1.0519 has served as a technical floor since the beginning of 2023 and remains the case as we near the end of Q1 2024. Overhead, ascending support-turned-resistance (drawn from the low of $1.0340 – formed by way of a...
According to the US Dollar Index, dollar longs are under pressure. Despite still technically exhibiting an uptrend, there are signs of technical weakness emerging. Since topping at 104.97 in mid-February (just shy of resistance at 105.04), price action has tunnelled through support at 104.15 (now marked resistance) in addition to channel support, extended from the...
Last week, we witnessed the price of spot gold (XAU/USD) refresh all-time highs (ATHs), comfortable north of the $2,000 mark at $2,195. Markets witnessed demand for the precious metal increase based on a number of factors, which has seen buyers lift prices higher for eight consecutive days. Last week also recorded its largest one-week gain since early October...
Upside Momentum Slowing
While it was another all-time high (ATH) for the S&P 500 last week, reaching 5,189, upside momentum is beginning to slow and concluded the week tentatively. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also ended a second week in negative territory and the Nasdaq 100 and Nasdaq Composite finished off ATHs in the shape of weekly bearish harami...
Ahead of this week’s wages/employment data, the technical position for the GBP/USD leans in favour of bulls.
Monthly Resistance Cedes Ground
Following two months of downside, GBP/USD bulls pencilled in a solid offensive last week (+1.6%), drawing the currency pair through resistance on the monthly timeframe at $1.2715. While one may argue that this market is...
According to the US Dollar Index, the US dollar (USD) had a rather disappointing week, falling -1.1% against a basket of six major currencies. On the month, the buck is also -1.4% lower and, assuming a continued negative trajectory this month, is on track to snap a two-month bullish phase.
The FP Markets Research Team noted in numerous posts that the longer-term...
It was another impressive week for the major cryptocurrency pairing BTC/USD, adding nearly +10.0% and carving out a second straight weekly gain to reach a fresh record high of $70,198.
Traders Eye Dip-Buying Opportunities
It is clear across all primary timeframes that the trend in this market is bullish, prompting traders and investors to seek dip-buying...
Major US equity benchmarks continue to outperform, recording fresh all-time highs. However, in recent moves, a mild correction is seen taking shape, one that has opened the door to a particularly interesting bullish formation on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow).
As evident from the daily timeframe, price is closing in on an ‘alternate’ AB=CD bullish...
Today will see the release of the Bank of Canada (BoC) rate decision at 2:45 pm GMT.
BoC to Hold the Line
The BoC is widely expected to keep its Overnight Rate on hold at 5.0% for a fifth consecutive meeting—a 22-year peak. As per the OIS curve, there’s only a 6% chance that we see a 25bp cut at today’s meeting with the first 25bp cut fully priced in for July...
Following the US cash open, we can see precious metals have been broadly bid today.
The price of spot gold (XAU/USD) and spot silver (XAG/USD) are +1.7% and +2.8% higher, respectively, at the time of writing. Despite UST yields advancing and the Dollar Index offering very little, both gold and silver are outperforming!
Resistance is limited on gold, paving the...
Ahead of this week’s BoC meeting—the central bank is widely expected to remain on hold at 5.0%—the technical picture for the USD/CAD leans in favour of buyers for the time being.
Monthly, Daily and H1 Charts Echo Bullish Tone
From the monthly timeframe, we can clearly see the currency pair has formed a long-term consolidation between CAD1.4690 and CAD1.2092...
Europe’s single currency concluded February eking out marginal gains against its US counterpart, delivering what many technical analysts will acknowledge as an indecision candle. Overall, the EUR/USD has been (and remains) in a downtrend since 2008, sporting clear lower lows and lower highs on the monthly chart.
Despite January’s engulfing candle (textbook...
PCE Data Eases in the Twelve Months to January
Today’s PCE data—a preferred measure for the Fed and one of the primary indicators they use to set monetary policy—was in line with economists' estimates across the board. Interestingly, though, for the year-over-year measures for January, both headline and core supported the disinflationary process, easing to 2.4%...
Boosted on the back of record net inflows for spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and driven by the anticipation of the upcoming Bitcoin halving, week-to-date has seen BTC/USD advance +24.0% (its largest one-week gain since 2021).
What’s technically interesting about the major crypto pairing, however, is that the all-time high (ATH) of $68,986 is now within...
