Euro Sentiment: What’s Ahead in the Next Few Days

Retail positioning tells a clear story:
70% short / 30% long on EUR/USD
→ That’s a textbook setup for a long .
The crowd is bearish — but structure favors bulls.

From a technical standpoint, we’re seeing a solid corrective move up from 1.15, with even a mini-higher high – higher low pattern forming — yes, like the ones in classic TA textbooks.
It looks not just logical… but inviting.

Now let’s look at the options market:
There’s real bullish momentum building:

1. Naked calls being bought
2. Call spreads actively traded
My focus is on two key structures:

First, the call at 1.165, entered on November 6 — now already in the money (#1 at chart)
Friday’s straddle at 1.1575 — its upper boundary aligns perfectly with the trigger level from October 29 (#2 at chart)
🎯 Confluence? Yes.

🔍 Putting It All Together:
We have fuel for further upside in EUR:

Retail overcrowded short
Technical structure improving
Options flow turning bullish

But resistance looms ahead:

1.1649 and up to 1.1683 (futures prices) are strong zones
These levels could cap the upside move and offer high-probability short setups
👉 In particular, 1.1649 stands out as an ideal zone to consider a short.

On Monday, I’ll calculate the Expected Range (ER) levels — and if it aligns with this resistance, I’ll definitely place a limit order here.

Not using ER levels yet?
Spend one minute learning them — and gain the edge most traders overlook.