QQQ Santa Rotation?

A look at the component charts lines up very cleanly with the broader QQQ direction into 2026

I am deliberately skeptical & weighting what usually leads, not what feels bullish/bearish emotionally

1. Clear leadership split or still acting well/potential leaders

AAPL

• Above rising short-term MA, shallow pullback, no real momentum damage
  
• RSI mid–upper range, MACD only mildly negative
  
• This is not distribution behavior
  

GOOGL

• Trend intact, pullback to rising MA, RSI still elevated
  
• Looks like digestion, not a trend break
  

TSLA

• Relative strength standout
  
• Higher lows, bullish stochastic reset, MACD turning up
  
• This is classic “risk appetite not gone” behavior
  

These names usually don’t hold up if a real index leg down is imminent

2. Neutral/repair mode

AMZN

• Choppy range, sitting near mid-range support
  
• Momentum soft, but not breaking down
  

META

• Sharp correction already occurred
  
• Now basing above recent lows; momentum trying to stabilize
  
• Damage done, but selling pressure clearly slowing
  

These look more like already paid the price, not just starting to fall

3. Clear weak links

NVDA

• Lower highs, weak bounce attempts, RSI sub-50
  
• This is the most important chart psychologically
  

MSFT

• Clean breakdown from November high
  
• Momentum still negative, rallies sold
  

AVGO

• Earnings gap down with volume
  
• This is real distribution, not noise
  

NFLX

• Continued downtrend, no strong reclaim yet
  

These are dragging QQQ, but note that most of this damage is already visible, not hidden

Breadth signals suggest that this is not a panic tape

• Across almost all charts RSI mostly 40-55, not 30s, stochastics cycling, not pinned & MACD negative but flattening, not accelerating, so this is controlled rotation, not liquidation
  
• If this were setting up a fast move to QQQ ~$590 immediately, you’d expect more RSIs < 35, more impulsive downside candles, & failed bounces across all mega-cap leaders
  

This implies for QQQ that the most probable path (highest odds) is a bounce first, then decision

• Weak semis + MSFT = cap on upside
  
• AAPL/GOOGL/TSLA = downside protection
  
• That argues for a reflex rally (likely into $620-$625 area on QQQ)
  
• Followed by stall/compression, not instant ATHs
  
• Then a test of either higher low → Santa continuation or rollover to the $590s later
  

A lower-probability, but valid alternative is if NVDA loses its recent lows decisively & AAPL breaks its rising MA

• Then the market probably hasn’t finished the reset
  
• That’s when the $590s become much more likely
  
• Right now, that confirmation is not present
  

Forget narratives - these are the objective tells

1. Does NVDA fail another bounce under its 20-50d MA?

• If yes → drag continues
  

2. Does AAPL hold its rising MA on any dip?

• If yes → index downside limited
  

3. Does TSLA continue to make higher lows?

• Risk appetite intact if it does
  

4. Does AVGO stabilize instead of cascading?

• Big for semis sentiment
  

• If 2 of those 4 fail simultaneously, odds shift toward deeper downside
  
• If 3 of 4 hold, Santa odds rise materially
  

This looks like a rotation-driven reset, not a market that’s done yet, but also not one about to collapse

• A bounce into mid/late December is the statistically cleaner path from these charts
  
• The real question is whether that bounce builds structure or fails quickly
  

Market wants to rally, but breadth is questionable & that regime typically resolves 1 of 2 ways

1. “Rotation Santa” (index grinds up even as laggards stay laggards)
   
2. “Breadth rug pull” (leaders finally roll & index drops fast)
   

If you get 3+ of these, odds tilt toward Santa succeeding even with semis weak & QQQ holds the prior swing low on the daily (no lower-low close)

• AAPL/GOOGL remain above their rising short-term trend (20ish day look)
  
• VIX is not making higher highs during down days (complacency returning)
  
• Down days are smaller-range than the earlier selloff (volatility compression)
  
• New lows list is not expanding while price chops (internal stabilization)
  

If instead you get QQQ makes a lower-low close, AAPL breaks trend & fails the reclaim within 1-2 sessions & semis keep making fresh lows, then the “bounce to ~$620-$625 fade” becomes the base case & $590s stays in play

• You’re looking for structure + absorption, not fireworks into 23-27 December
  
• Higher low(s) on the 1H/4H while daily holds support
  
• Inside-day or breakout (tight range resolves up)
  
• Closes near the high of day on at least 2 of those sessions
  
• Up days on average/low volume is fine (holiday), but down days must be low volume too (no distribution)
  
• Leadership breadth improves slightly & you don’t need semis to lead, you just need fewer new breakdowns
  
• RSI on QQQ stabilizes above ~45-50 & slopes up
  
• MACD histogram stops getting more negative (flattening is enough)
  
• If you see that, the “Santa can start” signal is basically reset done = volatility compresses + leaders stop breaking + QQQ holds the low
  

23-27 December tells of what a failed Santa attempt looks like - this is the “looks fine… until it doesn’t” pattern

• Gap up/early strength gets sold & closes mid-to-low range (2+ times)
  
• Failure at a key reclaim level (prior breakdown level or VWAP zone) within 24-48 hours
  
• One big trend day down that breaks the range (holiday weeks hate that & if it happens, it’s meaningful)
  
• Semis continue to make new lows & it starts pulling down the “strong ones” (AAPL breaks trend, GOOGL loses MA, etc)
  
• Breadth worsens while index is flat/up (classic divergence)
  
• If that happens, the most common path is quick rejection from the bounce zone (~$620-$625 area), then a liquidation leg toward the next major support (~$590)
  

The 3 “reset is done” triggers that I actually use

1. QQQ higher low + reclaim of the prior day’s VWAP/anchored VWAP
   
2. AAPL doesn't lose its rising trend on a closing basis (or loses/reclaims within 1 day)
   
3. NVDA stops making lower lows (it can stay weak, but it just can’t keep accelerating down)
   

QQQ AAPL AMZN AVGO GOOGL META MSFT NFLX NVDA TSLA