Bitcoin — comprehensive update: late-trend ladder, potential 4→5, and channel targets
Thesis
BTC is advancing inside a rising Elliott channel from the 2022 low. Late in an impulse, wave-5 often terminates near the channel’s upper line (sometimes with a brief throw-over), while momentum divergences frequently appear as higher highs print with weakening oscillators. That combination frames the next weeks: respect channel boundaries for upside targets and require price confirmation for any reversal.
Structure map (what the channel says)
Channeling guideline: after wave-4 is identified, draw a trendline 2→4 and run a parallel through 3 to project the likely wave-5 termination zone; many 5s end at, or just beyond, this upper boundary.
Throw-over risk: a brief penetration of the upper line by wave-5 can precede a major reversal; treat it as terminal unless acceptance above the channel holds on retest.
Levels (prices on the map)
Upside decision ladder — current impulse extensions
1.618 → $126,738 (typical wave-3 target; first decision/scale zone)
1.786 → $128,767 (often tags in strong legs)
2.000 → $131,398 (common wave-5 equality/overthrow checkpoint)
Acceptance through the full ladder shifts focus to the next confluence. (Use standard Fib extension practice from the last clear base.)
Stretch / confluence above
0.618 higher-degree cluster → ~$139,205 (popular profit-taking/reassessment area in crypto trends).
Dynamic channel guidance
Rising median of the 2022-anchored channel ≈ $150k now; linear projection implies ~$156k–$160k if contacted ~4 weeks later, depending on slope. Median/upper lines often act as magnets/termination rails late in trends.
Momentum/diff checklist (confirmation logic)
Bearish divergence = price higher high with RSI/MACD lower high → a warning of trend fatigue; treat as context and wait for price triggers (e.g., break of the last higher low).
Throwback behavior after upward breakouts is common; a retest that holds often resumes the uptrend. Do not assume failure unless support breaks.
Scenarios & exact triggers (including the “possible 4 → another 5” path)
A) Wave-3 at 1.618, then a real wave-4, then final wave-5 (classic)
Path: Pause/roll at $126,738–$131,398 → corrective wave-4 (shallow to moderate) → renewed push for wave-5 toward $139,205 and potentially the channel upper/median.
Triggers:
Wave-4 confirmation = loss of the last HL on execution TF (1h/4h) without breaking larger uptrend structure.
Wave-5 confirmation = reclaim of broken level + momentum re-acceleration.
B) No meaningful 4 yet → direct press to 2.0 and stretch
Path: Clean acceptance above $131,398 (2.0) with no fresh divergence → $139,205; if momentum persists, risk of throw-over into the channel’s upper line; then monitor throwback retest.
Triggers: Daily/3D closes through $131,398 with strengthening MACD/RSI, then alert at $139,205 for profit-taking and reversal risk management.
C) Divergence rejection at the ladder → truncated/short 5
Path: Price prints marginal HH into $126,738–$131,398 while RSI/MACD make LH → rejection → 5-down on 15m/1h → measured pullback toward 23.6–38.2% of the advance; larger reassessment thereafter.
Triggers: Bearish divergence plus break of the last HL and failure on retest (confirmation over anticipation).
Risk management (mechanical, level-driven)
Into $126,738 / $128,767 / $131,398: scale partials or hedge; if fading, hard stops above the spike-high to avoid terminal 5 squeezes.
On acceptance → $139,205: trail under prior HLs; expect a throwback and treat it as continuation unless structure fails.
On confirmed reversal: first targets = 23.6–38.2% retrace of the leg; deeper moves require fresh evidence.
One-screen summary (for the Idea caption)
Decision ladder: $126,738 → $128,767 → $131,398.
Stretch box: $139,205; beyond that, channel median/upper (~$150k now; $156–160k if tagged weeks later).
Bull path: acceptance above the ladder with rising momentum → box/rail; manage throwback.
Bear path: divergence + HL break at the ladder → 23.6–38.2% reset.
Channeling and throw-over/throwback guidelines support these outcomes
Thesis
BTC is advancing inside a rising Elliott channel from the 2022 low. Late in an impulse, wave-5 often terminates near the channel’s upper line (sometimes with a brief throw-over), while momentum divergences frequently appear as higher highs print with weakening oscillators. That combination frames the next weeks: respect channel boundaries for upside targets and require price confirmation for any reversal.
Structure map (what the channel says)
Channeling guideline: after wave-4 is identified, draw a trendline 2→4 and run a parallel through 3 to project the likely wave-5 termination zone; many 5s end at, or just beyond, this upper boundary.
Throw-over risk: a brief penetration of the upper line by wave-5 can precede a major reversal; treat it as terminal unless acceptance above the channel holds on retest.
Levels (prices on the map)
Upside decision ladder — current impulse extensions
1.618 → $126,738 (typical wave-3 target; first decision/scale zone)
1.786 → $128,767 (often tags in strong legs)
2.000 → $131,398 (common wave-5 equality/overthrow checkpoint)
Acceptance through the full ladder shifts focus to the next confluence. (Use standard Fib extension practice from the last clear base.)
Stretch / confluence above
0.618 higher-degree cluster → ~$139,205 (popular profit-taking/reassessment area in crypto trends).
Dynamic channel guidance
Rising median of the 2022-anchored channel ≈ $150k now; linear projection implies ~$156k–$160k if contacted ~4 weeks later, depending on slope. Median/upper lines often act as magnets/termination rails late in trends.
Momentum/diff checklist (confirmation logic)
Bearish divergence = price higher high with RSI/MACD lower high → a warning of trend fatigue; treat as context and wait for price triggers (e.g., break of the last higher low).
Throwback behavior after upward breakouts is common; a retest that holds often resumes the uptrend. Do not assume failure unless support breaks.
Scenarios & exact triggers (including the “possible 4 → another 5” path)
A) Wave-3 at 1.618, then a real wave-4, then final wave-5 (classic)
Path: Pause/roll at $126,738–$131,398 → corrective wave-4 (shallow to moderate) → renewed push for wave-5 toward $139,205 and potentially the channel upper/median.
Triggers:
Wave-4 confirmation = loss of the last HL on execution TF (1h/4h) without breaking larger uptrend structure.
Wave-5 confirmation = reclaim of broken level + momentum re-acceleration.
B) No meaningful 4 yet → direct press to 2.0 and stretch
Path: Clean acceptance above $131,398 (2.0) with no fresh divergence → $139,205; if momentum persists, risk of throw-over into the channel’s upper line; then monitor throwback retest.
Triggers: Daily/3D closes through $131,398 with strengthening MACD/RSI, then alert at $139,205 for profit-taking and reversal risk management.
C) Divergence rejection at the ladder → truncated/short 5
Path: Price prints marginal HH into $126,738–$131,398 while RSI/MACD make LH → rejection → 5-down on 15m/1h → measured pullback toward 23.6–38.2% of the advance; larger reassessment thereafter.
Triggers: Bearish divergence plus break of the last HL and failure on retest (confirmation over anticipation).
Risk management (mechanical, level-driven)
Into $126,738 / $128,767 / $131,398: scale partials or hedge; if fading, hard stops above the spike-high to avoid terminal 5 squeezes.
On acceptance → $139,205: trail under prior HLs; expect a throwback and treat it as continuation unless structure fails.
On confirmed reversal: first targets = 23.6–38.2% retrace of the leg; deeper moves require fresh evidence.
One-screen summary (for the Idea caption)
Decision ladder: $126,738 → $128,767 → $131,398.
Stretch box: $139,205; beyond that, channel median/upper (~$150k now; $156–160k if tagged weeks later).
Bull path: acceptance above the ladder with rising momentum → box/rail; manage throwback.
Bear path: divergence + HL break at the ladder → 23.6–38.2% reset.
Channeling and throw-over/throwback guidelines support these outcomes
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.