BTC will react here in a way that isnt parallel to the past.

Dec 29, 2024

BTC's patterns are gorgeous but beyond new territory imo.
DXY is staged for a shoebag to the down, yet BTC still has liq ~104k zone as do stocks have more room for growth via a strong Q1.

Especially if Japanese YIN is able to keep news about their rates aside and work it out, the US dollar will hold more value this presidential cycle. Stabilizing the range for IF A DUMP OCCURS on Bitcoin, Wallstreet liq will keep a solid >60k btc. Imo 50's wont happen again, and it might get a little bit unpredictable for the second half of this 10yr cycle going into 2025-2030. Both ways- bull AND OR bear.

Unless we have a reset; which I doubt will ever happen because the entire human race depends on the dollars stability.

Short term tho; RSI said to exit 100k BTC.
Long term tho; This is going to be an interesting 4 years of a Post-Biden America. I see health, but am concerned deep down for some reason.

NFA DYOR IDK F*K ABOUT SH*T

Aug 17

Trade active

Completed: Waves 1, 2, and 3.
Pending imo Wave Four/Five for a final leg into price discovery.

Realizing gains will be taken around TPs at 136k-142k.

Aug 17

Note

DXY’s been hovering below 100 since the election. Yen carry trade’s been snapping back and forth—tied to rate cut speculation that can’t make up its mind.

Oct 12

Note

Positioning update: Closed 30% of all main positions and converted alt profits to USDC.
Realized/trimmed:
o BTC: took profit around the 120k region.
o ETH: took profit around 4,200
o SOL: took profit at 236.
o PENGU: took profit in the $0.04x and $0.03x areas.
o SNS: exited before the last airdrop.
o ME: cut around $0.90s.
o JUP: cut around $1.0 and $0.70s.
o S: sold around $0.70s and $0.50s.
• NFTs: sold a couple Sonic and Solana NFTs to de-risk illiquid exposure, but I am still holding some Sonic and Solana NFTs. Nonetheless, all realized proceeds were still immediately moved to USDC.

BTC map (USD):
Structure: Higher-timeframe uptrend intact; post-flush stabilization above ~110k.
Levels
• Stretch support: 80,000
• Major support: 100,000
• Invalidation guide: 111,000 (daily close below = trend risk until reclaimed)
• Area of interest: 115,000–118,000 (monitor for reclaim + hold)
• Trigger band: 117,000–119,000
• Targets to study: 119,000 → 136,500 → 143,000

If/Then:
• Continuation: Reclaim 117–119k, hold retest with volume → map 136.5k → 143k.
• Range: Inside 110k–119k, expect mean-reversion; wait for break/close.
• Pullback: Lose 115–118k and close <111k → watch 100k; failure there opens room toward 80k stretch.
• Invalidation: Daily close <111k pauses the uptrend thesis.

Method
• “Entry” = confirmed reclaim/hold, not a market order.
• Typical risk cap 1–3% to a hard stop.
• Scale example 40%/40%/20% at T1/T2/runner; stop to breakeven after T1.

ETH and SOL quick context (USD)
• ETH: Support 3,600 / 3,400. Resistance 4,000 / 4,300 / 4,780–4,865. Close >4,000 with volume improves odds of 4.3k–4.8k retest.
• SOL: Support 176–175 / 150. Resistance 200 / 224 / 250. Close >200 with volume → 210 → 224.

Macro lenses (neutral)
• Rates: Market biases to easing; a hawkish surprise is a headwind.
• USD: Soft USD has supported crypto; a rebound can cap rallies.
• Cross-asset: Equity volatility continues to transmit to crypto via positioning/liquidity.

Solana NFT floors: Illiquid order books; account for fees/royalties; use wider tolerance.
• DeGods (Solana stub): ~6.1 SOL. Support 5; resistance 10 → 20.
• y00ts (Solana “reveal” stub): ~0.85 SOL. Support 0.75; resistance 1.0 → 1.5.
• Cets on Creck: ~0.30 SOL. Support 0.25; resistance 0.50 → 1.0.
• Udder Chaos: ~1.06 SOL. Support 0.90 / 0.75; resistance 1.2 → 1.5.
• Primates: ~0.18 SOL. Support 0.15; resistance 0.30 → 0.4–0.5.

Risk framework:
• Define invalidation before entry; do not widen stops.
• Stand down on new alt exposure if BTC closes below 111k or USD strength spikes.
• Re-check levels after policy data or major headlines.
Disclosure: Educational only. Not investment advice or a solicitation. No guarantees. Verify with your own chart and real-time data.