It's exactly 35 months from the 11/21/22 $15460 BTC bottom in 3 days or this Tuesday. Previous cycle tops from the bottoms were 35 months 3 days (1/14/15 to 12/17/17) and 35 months minus 5 days (12/15/18 to 11/10/21.
This is the time now that a top should form, but does it feel like one to you? In Dec 2017 we felt euphoria as BTC approached $20000. It didn't feel like euphoria in Nov 2021 when BTC barely surpassed the $64899 Apr 2021 high when it got to $69000. Most thought it was going to $100K or more back then. So I can be fooled again; have no idea 100% about anything in this market. But the next few months should be higher highs IMO. I could be wrong just my current take.
My Elliot Wave count currently shows this is the 5th and last intermediate wave in this cycle. The second minor wave is completing currently in this 5th intermediate wave. If my count is correct, then that means there should be a big wave up to much higher than the $126,296 Oct 6th minor wave 1 top to form a 3rd intermediate wave top. Then I would expect another 20-30% correction into a 4th minor wave bottom HIGHER than the $126,296 top. Then a final 5th minor wave to complete the 5th intermediate wave and the cycle top where we take profit.
(4) intermediate wave bottom was 4/7/25 at $74420. Minor wave 1 top was 7/14/25. It looks like the last 6 months has been an expanded flat correction with A wave $107,250 bottom on 9/1/25. Wave B top on Oct 9, 2025 at $126,296. Wave C has been forming all this month since; could bottom anywhere from $92K (CME gap that is open) to $100K based on analysts like Crypto Jebb and others. If the $103,516 bottom yesterday on 10/17/25 was the bottom, then a 1.618 Fib extension of the $48,811 move made in minor wave 1 would be a $78,976 move in minor wave 3 from the $103,516 current bottom or a wave 3 top at $182,492 say in Feb 2026. Then I would expect a 25% correction to $136,869 in about a month to March 2026. Then one more minor wave 5 that would last about 2 months to May 2026 that would probably not exceed the $78,976 move made in minor wave 3. That would be a minor wave 5 and intermediate wave (5) cycle top at $136,869 + $78,976 = $215,845 for a cycle top in May 2026. Then I would expect a bear market at least to the end of the year from 50-70%. Just my guess for now based on what I see in the current market, the macro economic conditions, the continual institutional buying, the current Fed cutting interest rates for the foreseeable future (which is good for risk assets like stocks and crypto).
This is the time now that a top should form, but does it feel like one to you? In Dec 2017 we felt euphoria as BTC approached $20000. It didn't feel like euphoria in Nov 2021 when BTC barely surpassed the $64899 Apr 2021 high when it got to $69000. Most thought it was going to $100K or more back then. So I can be fooled again; have no idea 100% about anything in this market. But the next few months should be higher highs IMO. I could be wrong just my current take.
My Elliot Wave count currently shows this is the 5th and last intermediate wave in this cycle. The second minor wave is completing currently in this 5th intermediate wave. If my count is correct, then that means there should be a big wave up to much higher than the $126,296 Oct 6th minor wave 1 top to form a 3rd intermediate wave top. Then I would expect another 20-30% correction into a 4th minor wave bottom HIGHER than the $126,296 top. Then a final 5th minor wave to complete the 5th intermediate wave and the cycle top where we take profit.
(4) intermediate wave bottom was 4/7/25 at $74420. Minor wave 1 top was 7/14/25. It looks like the last 6 months has been an expanded flat correction with A wave $107,250 bottom on 9/1/25. Wave B top on Oct 9, 2025 at $126,296. Wave C has been forming all this month since; could bottom anywhere from $92K (CME gap that is open) to $100K based on analysts like Crypto Jebb and others. If the $103,516 bottom yesterday on 10/17/25 was the bottom, then a 1.618 Fib extension of the $48,811 move made in minor wave 1 would be a $78,976 move in minor wave 3 from the $103,516 current bottom or a wave 3 top at $182,492 say in Feb 2026. Then I would expect a 25% correction to $136,869 in about a month to March 2026. Then one more minor wave 5 that would last about 2 months to May 2026 that would probably not exceed the $78,976 move made in minor wave 3. That would be a minor wave 5 and intermediate wave (5) cycle top at $136,869 + $78,976 = $215,845 for a cycle top in May 2026. Then I would expect a bear market at least to the end of the year from 50-70%. Just my guess for now based on what I see in the current market, the macro economic conditions, the continual institutional buying, the current Fed cutting interest rates for the foreseeable future (which is good for risk assets like stocks and crypto).
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.