Hello everyone.
I must say that it's not very easy to say it loud but for a short period of time, the Bulls have lost the fight.
According to several factors, the next two months will be blood-colored in the entire market.
Get ready to bleed. Because your portfolio will. So will you.
Okay, but why?
Let's see;
Fundamental Factors:
-The USA is still creating more tension around the globe. Only last week, the USA has operated a huge campaign over the Caribbean Sea. And yes, if you ARE a trader, you'll follow these kinds of events because this market is not a playground for kids.
-The USA has finished its recession today but for the first time in history it took a lot of time for them to solve the problems. During the "solving" phase, the market has already calculated the fair prices for so-called "bullish news". By “bullish”, I mean reopening the USA, which is not actually bullish at all because it was never meant to be happening in the first place anyway.
-Today the USA senate has talked about another export restriction for China. This actually is the trigger for today’s red candles.
-The FED is still telling people the same story about inflation. Their utopian targets for inflation are not realistic and they know it as well. Powell has marked that there might be no rate cuts in December after all. Personal thoughts: There will be. In the short term? BEARISH.
-Another thing to consider is the ETFs. Remember what happened in the market when BTC and ETH ETFs were listed? This is what's happening at the moment. History just repeats itself again and again. Many altcoin ETFs will be approved during this month. This will trigger another event called "accumulation". Hedge funds and other customers will seek to buy the dip. Therefore, they will push the prices of ETF-listed altcoins to the bottom so they can buy at lower prices while your portfolio melts. CEXs will also help them do so by letting them manipulate the order book via fake resistance orders. Sorry, but this is how it works.
Now the fun part. Let's talk about the Technical Factors:
-For this time I'll start with USDT dominance.
There is not much to talk about but I'll leave a link so you can examine. The entire market will remain bearish as long as this parameter stays above 5.2%.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/nyXxb4KA/
-Another thing to keep an eye on is the S&P index, which is looking very bearish due to uncertainty around the globe and for the most part the US.
-Let's get back to BTC.
In previous analysis, I already explained to you what might be coming soon and we might actually have been at the end of wave 5. Well, sadly that analysis worked. Yes, sadly because I want this market to grow.
At the moment we are going to see an A-B-C correction pattern and it will take a few weeks to complete. During this era, you need to be careful about two things:
Don’t even think that getting a swing long position to hold for 2 years will work.
You will see a correction through 110K soon but it will only be wave B. So, if you're carrying long-term hedge positions, you'll need to watch for an ENGULFING daily candle in Bitcoin around 92K. That's where the CME gap was left — also a demand area and moreover, there is Fib channel confluence. Before that “engulf” happens, I'd not suggest lowering breakeven in losing positions.
The wave 5 also will be a perfect trap for newcomers and for people who don't know much about the market. Many will jump into altcoins when they're cheap, but most likely they will be cheaper around March 2026.
Bitcoin has already completed its retest after breaking the lower boundary of this Fib channel. No need to overthink it. As long as Bitcoin stays below 110K, don't look for any “BULL RUN.”
And if somehow Bitcoin reaches around 110K, wait for a weekly candle close. That will both confirm and trigger bullish momentum. Don't worry, you won't miss the move — you'll just confirm it.
Thanks for reading,
Get ready.
I must say that it's not very easy to say it loud but for a short period of time, the Bulls have lost the fight.
According to several factors, the next two months will be blood-colored in the entire market.
Get ready to bleed. Because your portfolio will. So will you.
Okay, but why?
Let's see;
Fundamental Factors:
-The USA is still creating more tension around the globe. Only last week, the USA has operated a huge campaign over the Caribbean Sea. And yes, if you ARE a trader, you'll follow these kinds of events because this market is not a playground for kids.
-The USA has finished its recession today but for the first time in history it took a lot of time for them to solve the problems. During the "solving" phase, the market has already calculated the fair prices for so-called "bullish news". By “bullish”, I mean reopening the USA, which is not actually bullish at all because it was never meant to be happening in the first place anyway.
-Today the USA senate has talked about another export restriction for China. This actually is the trigger for today’s red candles.
-The FED is still telling people the same story about inflation. Their utopian targets for inflation are not realistic and they know it as well. Powell has marked that there might be no rate cuts in December after all. Personal thoughts: There will be. In the short term? BEARISH.
-Another thing to consider is the ETFs. Remember what happened in the market when BTC and ETH ETFs were listed? This is what's happening at the moment. History just repeats itself again and again. Many altcoin ETFs will be approved during this month. This will trigger another event called "accumulation". Hedge funds and other customers will seek to buy the dip. Therefore, they will push the prices of ETF-listed altcoins to the bottom so they can buy at lower prices while your portfolio melts. CEXs will also help them do so by letting them manipulate the order book via fake resistance orders. Sorry, but this is how it works.
Now the fun part. Let's talk about the Technical Factors:
-For this time I'll start with USDT dominance.
There is not much to talk about but I'll leave a link so you can examine. The entire market will remain bearish as long as this parameter stays above 5.2%.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/nyXxb4KA/
-Another thing to keep an eye on is the S&P index, which is looking very bearish due to uncertainty around the globe and for the most part the US.
-Let's get back to BTC.
In previous analysis, I already explained to you what might be coming soon and we might actually have been at the end of wave 5. Well, sadly that analysis worked. Yes, sadly because I want this market to grow.
At the moment we are going to see an A-B-C correction pattern and it will take a few weeks to complete. During this era, you need to be careful about two things:
Don’t even think that getting a swing long position to hold for 2 years will work.
You will see a correction through 110K soon but it will only be wave B. So, if you're carrying long-term hedge positions, you'll need to watch for an ENGULFING daily candle in Bitcoin around 92K. That's where the CME gap was left — also a demand area and moreover, there is Fib channel confluence. Before that “engulf” happens, I'd not suggest lowering breakeven in losing positions.
The wave 5 also will be a perfect trap for newcomers and for people who don't know much about the market. Many will jump into altcoins when they're cheap, but most likely they will be cheaper around March 2026.
Bitcoin has already completed its retest after breaking the lower boundary of this Fib channel. No need to overthink it. As long as Bitcoin stays below 110K, don't look for any “BULL RUN.”
And if somehow Bitcoin reaches around 110K, wait for a weekly candle close. That will both confirm and trigger bullish momentum. Don't worry, you won't miss the move — you'll just confirm it.
Thanks for reading,
Get ready.
Trade active
Let's see if the demand zone will hold or not. Invalidation: Below 88K.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.