AlanSantana

πŸ…±οΈ One Final Leg Up To $100K? Yes Or No? (See Question)

AlanSantana Updated   
OKX:BTCUSDT   Bitcoin/Tether
This is a strong scenario right now and something we have all been wondering...

How are you feeling today?

With so many Altcoins now really strong but yet to complete their bullish cycle and Bitcoin ultra-bullish, it calls for additional growth many people say...

I hope you are having a wonderful start to your week!

βž– Bitcoin is trading near resistance, at All-Time Highs but this does not mean that it must drop.

The fact that the market cycles only between up and down makes it pretty easy to predict what type of movement will come next.

Right now we are experiencing a surge, a rise, an up-wave...
This up-wave will inevitably end in a major correction but when?

So, what do you think?

πŸ‘‰ Will Bitcoin continue rising to $100,000 before the correction or start going down right away?

Leave a comment...

Bulls or bears, which one you pick?
We will count and see who wins.

Thanks a lot for your support.

Namaste.
Comment:
Currently we are witnessing the resumption of the bearish move that started after Bitcoin hit a new All-Time High on the 14th of March this year.

This current move is something that we've been tracking for a while.

βž– When prices are low, we look for entry opportunities to go LONG.
βž– When prices are high, we look for entry opportunities to go SHORT.

The type of action we are witnessing confirms the All-Time High.

With a strong bearish close today, a confirmation of the ATH also means a confirmation of the next major market move, a drop.

After the drop we resume up, we grow up all the way through the Moon, to the Sun and the Stars.

Namaste.
Comment:
The week did not start good but is only half way through and Bitcoin is still high up.

While we have a very, very strong bearish bias, we continue to focus on the chart.

This week is important and decisive based on the phase of the market cycle in which we find ourselves.

The week started green, Boom! and we get a new high but still a daily lower high and immediately it turns red. It is not bad to be Bitcoin right now at $69,000 but that is coming from the ground up.

The fact that it tried to move higher first and quickly turned make this a rejection, a bearish signal.
A bearish signal right now with adds up to the 11-Mar. session as well as to the fact that we have three weeks red in a period of four weeks and Bitcoin struggling to move higher as not seen in a long while. The chart screaming 'caution' all around.
Comment:
Have you seen the situation with Bitcoin Cash?

It just went through its halving event and what followed was a bearish move that is very strong, pointing towards a major correction.

Bitcoin's halving event is getting close.

Litecoin went on to produce a correction after the halving and now Bitcoin Cash has gone big red, like really big just days post-halving.

Now, this can be a positive... Please bear with me for a few minutes.

πŸ…±οΈ One Last Hurray?

Another one?

This isn't bad, imagine the following scenario: Bitcoin is set to correct based on the halving event. Seeing that the correction did not happen already, "pre-halving," we can expect for it to happen post-halving.

In the past we've seen Bitcoin going through small and big corrections, pre- and post-halving.

While for you and for me it is easy to know that a bullish wave leads to a bearish wave, this is not the case for everybody. Many new market participants are being hyped about the halving because they don't know how it works, etc. The event can be used as speculated the Spot ETF launch would be used.

Notice that while Bitcoin is still strong it stalled and lately we've been seeing some really bad news in the press (God bless journalist, writers and reporters β€”May God Bless You!).

Bad news not affecting the market negatively is good news.
But too much bad news will eventually reflect on the market price and that's when the correction will be apparent in its full force.

There we can be one last jump say to 80, 84K, 100K maybe? and then the correction... Or straight down?

The halving is only two weeks away.

Leave a comment with your thoughts... Let's see what you have to say!
Comment:
The daily session is now closed and we have a neutral candle by all definitions: A Doji, no new highs nor lows, weak volume, etc.

This means that the signal coming off the 9-Apr. session remains in place.

We did experience some volatility but nothing we haven't seen from recent days.

If you have any questions feel free to leave a comment.

Thanks again for reading the trade ideas, charts and updates, and for enjoying these amazing trades.

Namaste.
Comment:
One very strong point in favor of the bulls that needs to be mentioned is the current price. Bitcoin has been ranging and is currently trading at ~$70,000 and fails to move any lower, it has been sideways for a while now.

The interesting and revealing part is that 70K is less than ten percent away from the all-time high. This tells us that Bitcoin is actually challenging resistance at this point. The more resistance level is challenged, the weaker it becomes.

Say prices move below 70K to hit 68K or 65K; strongly bearish but again, as it moves above 70K we need to consider the other scenarios and adapt just as the market does.

Down or up?
A very strong move is about to develop, that's for sure.

Namaste.
Comment:
The hourly action is becoming really compressed, a break is about to happen soon.
This type of action will normally lead to a breakdown based on experience, this is what I am seeing with the increase in volatility at this juncture.

Related markets are bearish while the DXY is bullish. Watch out!
Comment:
πŸ…±οΈ BITCOIN'S TECHNICAL ANALYSIS SIMPLIFIED

Let's try and make it super-easy shall we?

I know we can have a difference of opinion but still, try looking at it from my perspective and then you can go back to yours.

It is like opening up, experiencing the other side and then going back.
It is a way to really appreciate what the other has to say.

See, sometimes we can get stuck with one point of view and somehow belief that anything different from what we belief is impossible; that's ok.

We all go through all sorts of emotions and experiences but in the end, the market tends to find a way to teach us a lesson and humbles us down once more, once again. And yet, even to this day we continue to read what the chart has to say.

Let's do this... We will keep it extremely simple and I am sure that you can appreciate the chart signals that I am sharing with you regardless of what Bitcoin does. The market can be unpredictable but technical analysis works.

The market can change in an hour, in a day, in a week, in a year, in a month; it can take as long as it needs, it normally takes as long as it wants. It can change right now, after I publish this, or it can continue in the same trajectory for some time but, regardless of what the current situation shows, change is always sure to come; this is specially true when dealing with a newly created, highly volatile and amazing market. This is absolutely true when dealing with the humans and their lovely reality... You can always expect to be amazed.

Ok... Here is the daily chart:
βž– 5-March shows the highest volume in years and the session ended red. This is not the top but this session produced the highest volume.
βž– 14-March we get a new ATH, a higher high vs 5-March but the volume is lower and the session closed red. Right after this day we have a change of pattern in price action. The pattern has been corrected but the change is still a "signal," that we are now aware off.
βž– Trading volume is dropping daily.

That's it!

What is this telling us?

Bitcoin is going up or down? No!

The bears are in and entered the game with force on the 5th of March.
They are active now and surely getting ready to make their move.

Yes! The bulls did a great job and we love it, we all won but the volume here is revealing that they no longer have much ammunition and thus getting closer to losing price control
Comment:
A breakdown is happening now on the daily timeframe:
Bitcoin is moving below EMA21 and EMA10.

πŸ‘‰ The lower low should settle below $60,000 as this move develops.

It is early but we have a lower high and the bears are starting to show... Do you agree?
Comment:
Bitcoin is now trading below EMA50 daily... The correction is now in place, already happening.

πŸ‘‰ The 60K target is an easy one, expect to hit 50K within days and likely lower...

πŸ‘‰ Based on this simple chart below, minimum target would be 44,000-46,000!

Namaste.
Comment:
The daily session is now closed and so it is confirmed that Bitcoin is trading daily below EMA50; medium-term bearish potential is now active.

The trading volume is not that high but still above the daily average. More volume likely to come at the next support level.

The weekly timeframe looks good and it is the first time that EMA10 has been tested as support since January 2024. Moving below this level activates the bearish potential on this long-term timeframe.

See the chart:
βž– Notice how EMA50 weekly sits at ~$43,000.
βž– MA200 weekly sits at ~$33,333.

I would say the minimum support challenge would be MA200 but it can go lower.

Namaste.
Comment:
My dear friends, consider this: Bitcoin has been closing green since August 2023, seven months straight. April '24 is the first time Bitcoin turns red since August '23. Current price action points to the first month red in eight months. This means that there is room for additional low because April is only halfway through.

It is the first time ever that Bitcoin closes seven months green consecutively before the halving, so this is a major development and breaks all patterns. Without failing, every time there is a very strong bullish wave, a very strong correction follows. This is normal and expected.

βž– The peak was hit 14-March.
βž– Bitcoin peaked an entire month ago already (30 days).
βž– Bitcoin already produced a lower high and the current move is the bearish confirmation and continuation.

πŸ‘‰ It will move lower based on this and other signals.

I just published the monthly Bitcoin chart with the full analysis for this timeframe, you can find it below:

πŸ…±οΈ Why Bitcoin Will Continue Lower (Bitcoin Monthly) Explained!

Thanks a lot for your continued support.

Namaste.
Comment:
πŸ…±οΈ What Needs To Happen For Bitcoin To Drop Below $30,000?

I remember we mentioned that Bitcoin was set to correct all the way down to the $26,500 - $38,000 price range, which is the same as the 0.786 - 0.618 Fib. retracement levels for the entire bullish wave that started after the November 2022 market bottom low.

Seeing, feeling and living through the strongest bullish wave since 2021 put a dent on our perspective, it seems that 30K is too low; at least that's what people are saying.

People would ask me:

What needs to happen for Bitcoin to drop that low?
What is going to happen?

I don't know.

People would say:

"It is impossible, BlackRock is going to buy everything!"
"Nobody is going to sell!"
"We are going straight up to 100K!"

The chart does not tells us the event, the catalyst, it only shows what happened in the past and what is happening in the present. With this information we can predict what is going to happen in the future.

Why would Bitcoin drop below 30K?

βž– Maybe a problem with the authorities spills over, like a lawsuit for a big project or something.
βž– Maybe another big exchange goes down.
βž– Maybe a terrorist attack shows up, Covid 3.0, computer viruses or World War...

Now I can see it!

Bitcoin is going down because of the war!

It will recover though.

πŸ‘‰ It will produce a strong support and then a massive bullish wave ending in a massive bull-run; regardless of what the world does.

News and events will continue to happen;
Everything will continue to happen;
Everything has been happening always...

Life goes on!

Prepare and do what you can to protect yourself and stay safe.

I am wishing you the best.

Namaste.
Comment:
βž– Bitcoin is now on its third negative week on the weekly timeframe, it is aiming straight down right now digging for a new low:
βž– Let's have a look at the weekly RSI: The current pattern is calling for a drop to the 40-50 range to start.

βž– Here is the weekly MACD:
Look at the current peak. A curve is starting to form.
This is the highest peak since November 2021.
Each time such a peak shows up a major correction follows.

These major corrections tend to last for at least a few months.
Comment:
πŸ…±οΈ RENKO BTC | Bearish (down) trend confirmed!

Here is the weekly RENKO chart for BTCUSDT:
βž– Notice the peak November 2021.
βž– Notice after the peak we get a red brick and that's it, the trend changes.
βž– A red brick is a sell signal on the RENKO system.
βž– BTCUSDT Weekly RENKO is saying that the uptrend is over and a new bearish trend (downtrend) is just getting started.

A trend can go for months...

Namaste.
Comment:
Here is a projected correction path based on Elliott Wave Theory (for illustration purposes only β€” wave proportions are highly random and impossible to predict. The EW system is used only as a "map" to navigate the chart, it is not meant to predict exact levels even though it can be used for such purposes).

Comment:
πŸ…±οΈ Bitcoin | Warning

It seems Bitcoin's next major move is now very close, imminent, something that can start within hours or at the maximum a few days.

This is a continuation of something that started more than a month ago. 50K is not likely to hold...

While Bitcoin can produce a bounce around the 50,000 price level, a bit higher than that, this bounce will definitely lead to lower prices and fast and this to the mid to low 40Ks. So prepare for a very hard, fast and strong drop; once it takes place!

Namaste.
Comment:
Here is a different version of a potential ABC (EW) correction.

(On the previous chart, the size of the ABC correction is out of proportion with the rest of the chart; too big.)

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