BTC Outlook: Premium Rejections, Clean Drawdown Targets, and Key

BTC continues to respect the higher-timeframe bearish order flow. Price tapped into the Daily Bearish Block + IFVG around the $104K–$108K premium zone, delivered displacement, and broke structure to the downside.

From there, the market formed a clean 3H Supply (BB + FVG) where sellers aggressively re-entered. Price rejected that imbalance and continued the markdown phase.

Structure remains bearish with lower-highs and lower-lows being printed. Current PA is consolidating below key structure, signaling that liquidity is being engineered for the next leg.

We still have an unmitigated Weekly OB at $83K–$86K, which aligns with the macro drawdown target. This zone remains the highest-probability area for a deeper corrective bounce.

Key Levels

• Premium Rejection Zone: $104K – $108K
  
• 3H Supply + FVG: $98K – $101K
  
• Immediate Support: $92K – $95K
  
• Major HTF Demand (Weekly OB): $83K – $86K
  

What I Expect Next

• Retracement into the 3H FVG / inefficiency before another sell-off.
  
• Liquidity below $92K likely to be swept.
  
• High-probability macro reaction once price taps the weekly OB.
  

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CONFIRMATION ENTRY (Safer Approach)

• Use this for precise execution:
  
• Mark the 3H/1H supply zone.
  
• Wait for price to tap the zone → no instant entries.
  
• Drop to M15/M5 and wait for a clear CHOCH (shift) or BOS confirming sellers.
  
• Enter on the pullback into the refined OB or FVG.
  
• SL above the M5 POI that caused the break.
  
• First TP at relative equal lows or clean inefficiencies.
  
• This keeps you out of premature entries and filters manipulation.