I have observed a recurring pattern of over-optimistic reporting in cocoa-related news. Especially when comparing farmers’ and professionals’ views with actual outcomes, there is a grate difference. Cocoa cultivation is highly sensitive to weather fluctuations, and climate change is making these risks increasingly severe. Extremes in both directions (drought - heavy rainfall) raise disease and quality risks and make bean drying more difficult.
According to my research, between June and September 2024, around 57% of the published articles predicted a strong cocoa harvest. As we now know, that did not happen. Crop estimates in 2024 were overly optimistic — and they still appear to be. The same pattern was evident in the 2024/2025 mid-crop: the actual Ivory Coast mid-crop came in at 400,000 MT, which was about 9% lower than the estimated 440,000 MT. Current news seem to repeat the same pattern in estimating a good corp.
Cocoa pod development takes 5–8 months, and the middle of 2025 was notably dry. Given how sensitive cocoa trees are to weather conditions, it’s surprising that estimates for the 2025/2026 crop remain so positive, even though the data and facts does not support such optimism.
Also reported that Cocoa arrivals to Ghana ports in the four weeks ending September 4 reached 50,440 MT compared to about 11,000 MT delivered in the same period in 2024. Is this because delivery to ports was delayed? Some wait for the right moment for their delivery. Still understanding the price increase for the farmers in Ivory Coast that took place in the beginning of October may lead for larger deliveries. This may be seen in the statistics in the beginning of November. Understanding that the earlier months deliveries in 2025 was lower, I would like to see a full year diagram with moving average to make assumptions.
Furthermore, despite aging of cocoa trees in West Africa, some forecasts still assume increased production. A cocoa tree takes 3–5 years to become productive. To boost production now, new trees should have been planted around 2022 — a time when prices had not yet risen, and few had incentives to expand planting.
Understanding the possible over optimism – whatever information sources are used - I would rely on facts and the amount of shopped bags instead of personal opinions.
The main question is that are there over optimism in the air or is the harvest going to be magnificent? I don’t know to be honest. Still, on my opinion, currently the cocoa related news seem to miss full perspective. Even if there have been heavy rains in some areas and fake fertilizers, there’s no discussion about plant deceases.
According to my research, between June and September 2024, around 57% of the published articles predicted a strong cocoa harvest. As we now know, that did not happen. Crop estimates in 2024 were overly optimistic — and they still appear to be. The same pattern was evident in the 2024/2025 mid-crop: the actual Ivory Coast mid-crop came in at 400,000 MT, which was about 9% lower than the estimated 440,000 MT. Current news seem to repeat the same pattern in estimating a good corp.
Cocoa pod development takes 5–8 months, and the middle of 2025 was notably dry. Given how sensitive cocoa trees are to weather conditions, it’s surprising that estimates for the 2025/2026 crop remain so positive, even though the data and facts does not support such optimism.
Also reported that Cocoa arrivals to Ghana ports in the four weeks ending September 4 reached 50,440 MT compared to about 11,000 MT delivered in the same period in 2024. Is this because delivery to ports was delayed? Some wait for the right moment for their delivery. Still understanding the price increase for the farmers in Ivory Coast that took place in the beginning of October may lead for larger deliveries. This may be seen in the statistics in the beginning of November. Understanding that the earlier months deliveries in 2025 was lower, I would like to see a full year diagram with moving average to make assumptions.
Furthermore, despite aging of cocoa trees in West Africa, some forecasts still assume increased production. A cocoa tree takes 3–5 years to become productive. To boost production now, new trees should have been planted around 2022 — a time when prices had not yet risen, and few had incentives to expand planting.
Understanding the possible over optimism – whatever information sources are used - I would rely on facts and the amount of shopped bags instead of personal opinions.
The main question is that are there over optimism in the air or is the harvest going to be magnificent? I don’t know to be honest. Still, on my opinion, currently the cocoa related news seem to miss full perspective. Even if there have been heavy rains in some areas and fake fertilizers, there’s no discussion about plant deceases.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.