DXY Daily Map for 3 to 7 November 2025

What this is
A clean, event aware plan for the Dollar Index for the week ahead. We start the week with DXY holding the ninety nine handle and sitting just below the round one hundred line. The location is the story. Round numbers compress behavior. If you pre mark the right shelves and then trade the reaction to data and auction tone, you can avoid most of the week’s traps while still catching the meaningful moves.

Chart setup
Use TVC:DXY on the daily and one hour. Keep the chart clean. Draw only the bands you will act on.
• 100.00 round number
• 100.15 to 100.45 first resistance band
• 100.50 to 101.00 second resistance band
• 99.50 to 99.30 first support shelf
• 98.90 to 98.60 second support shelf
• 98.20 daily defense line

Add a fifteen minute ATR for sizing. No other overlays. You do not need them.

Why this week matters
The heaviest flow sits midweek when private labor gauges, services surveys, and refunding headlines can all hit inside a tight window. On Thursday the Bank of England adds a cross current through GBP and EUR which together carry real weight inside DXY. You do not have to predict any of these. You only need to decide what you will do if price reaches your bands with momentum or with rejection.

How to read the round number
One hundred is not a signal. It is a liquidity pocket. The first touch after a period below tends to be noisy because participants with different time frames meet there. The more disciplined path is to let the first touch play out, then trade the second decision. If a fifteen minute close accepts above 100.20 and pullbacks hold, you have confirmation to work the first band. If the first test spikes and fails, the wick itself gives you a clear invalidation for a fade back toward 99.50.

Scenarios to plan for

Acceptance above the first band
Price pushes through 100.15 and holds above 100.20 on a fifteen minute close after firm services or a solid tone in rates. The plan is to buy the first clean retest of 100.20 with a stop a few ticks below the retest low. First target 100.45. Second target 100.80 to 101.00 if the tape stays orderly. Trail only after the first target prints.

Rejection at the first band
A sharp wick into 100.15 to 100.45 that fails within the first five to ten minutes after headlines is often the highest quality fade of the week. Short into the rejection with a stop above 100.55. Take partials into 99.80 and again into 99.50. If 99.50 loses on a fifteen minute close, hold a runner for 99.30.

Breakdown through support
If 99.50 to 99.30 gives way without a clear catalyst, do not chase the first break. Wait for a back test that fails. Then target 98.90 to 98.60 with small size. This environment rewards patience because air pockets near round numbers can retrace quickly.

Cross current from the Bank of England
If the press conference lifts GBP and EUR, DXY can slide even if U.S. data is mixed. In that case the plan is simple. Respect your support shelves. Do not fight a broad based dollar selloff at support unless the curve turns back in your favor.

Execution checklist

• Price touches a band on a headline.
• Wait five full minutes.
• Decide between confirmation or rejection.
• If confirmation, demand a fifteen minute close through the band and a clean retest.
• If rejection, let the wick print and use the wick high or low as your invalidation.
• Take partials one band at a time rather than the exact level.
• If you are still in a trade into the U.S. close on Friday, flatten first and protect your weekend.

Risk and position sizing

Keep risk small until the midweek cluster passes. Use a volatility stop based on the current fifteen minute ATR. Tie your size to that stop so that one loss equals a fixed fraction of account risk. Set a max loss for the day and for the week. If either is hit you are done. That is a rule, not a suggestion.


What can go wrong

• A surprise release at an unexpected time can push the index through a band before you have a signal. If you missed it, you missed it. Do nothing.
• A sloppy Treasury headline can move rates while equities rally. That mixture can confuse the dollar for an hour. Size down and let the tape choose a side.
• The Bank of England tone can reverse a move you liked. During the press conference keep positions smaller and stops wider or stand aside.

Three simple rules for the week

• Trade reaction, never the headline itself.
• Confirm with a fifteen minute close before betting on a break.
• Take partials into the next band every single time.


Disclaimer
Education and analytics only. This is not investment advice.