DXY remains inside a well-defined ascending channel and is currently building structure above mid-channel support. With the Dec 10 Fed meeting approaching, the macro narrative may soon favor additional USD strength.
According to CME FedWatch, markets are pricing:
55.6% probability the Fed holds rates
44.4% probability of a cut
A hold keeps U.S. yields supported and has historically provided short-term upside pressure on the Dollar Index.
Technical Outlook
Price is respecting the ascending channel
Current pullback sits on a key demand zone + channel support
Higher-timeframe supply is above, but continuation structure is intact
The October rate cut reaction formed a clean bullish trend leg — this could be the next impulsive wave
My Bias
I’m anticipating USD strength into — and potentially after — the December Fed meeting, especially if the Fed reiterates cautious, data-dependent language rather than confirming more cuts.
Bullish Thesis:
A Fed hold + risk-off repricing → upside continuation on DXY
Key Levels to Watch:
🔼 100.80
🔼 101.50 (major supply break target)
🔼 102.20+ if momentum accelerates
Invalidation:
A clean break below channel support + demand zone.
According to CME FedWatch, markets are pricing:
55.6% probability the Fed holds rates
44.4% probability of a cut
A hold keeps U.S. yields supported and has historically provided short-term upside pressure on the Dollar Index.
Technical Outlook
Price is respecting the ascending channel
Current pullback sits on a key demand zone + channel support
Higher-timeframe supply is above, but continuation structure is intact
The October rate cut reaction formed a clean bullish trend leg — this could be the next impulsive wave
My Bias
I’m anticipating USD strength into — and potentially after — the December Fed meeting, especially if the Fed reiterates cautious, data-dependent language rather than confirming more cuts.
Bullish Thesis:
A Fed hold + risk-off repricing → upside continuation on DXY
Key Levels to Watch:
🔼 100.80
🔼 101.50 (major supply break target)
🔼 102.20+ if momentum accelerates
Invalidation:
A clean break below channel support + demand zone.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.