ES (SPX, SPY) Weekly Game Plan (Oct 6–10)

Big Picture
Price is leaning into the 6,788–6,800 ceiling after a steady grind higher. Underneath, you’ve got stacked shelves: 6,778, 6,771/6,760, and 6,754. Lose that 6,754 floor and there’s an air pocket toward the 6,720s → 6,680s demand band. Expect rotations until the market either gets above 6,800 and sticks (trend-up week) or gets swatted back (rotate lower into value).

Weekly Bias & Likely Paths

• Base case: Rotational around 6,788–6,800 until proven otherwise.
  
• Bull path: Get above 6,800 and stick → pit stops 6,818–6,825 (TP1) → 6,856–6,862 (TP2) → stretch 6,895–6,905.
  
• Bear path: Pop-and-fail at 6,800 → drift to 6,778 → 6,771/6,760 → 6,754.
  
• Trend-down only if we close below 6,754 and fail the check-back, opening the 6,720s → 6,680s window.
  

Tomorrow’s Playbook — Level-KZ Protocol (15/5/1)

(NY AM window 09:30–11:00 ET; PM window 13:30–16:00 ET. Two tries per level max.)

Pop-and-Go LONG over 6,800 (Tier-1, full size)
Trigger: 15m close above 6,800 → 5m holds 6,788–6,792 and re-closes up → 1m higher high to enter.
Entry: 6,799–6,804 on the re-break.
Stop: Below the 15m trigger wick −0.5.
• Targets: TP1 6,818–6,825, TP2 6,856–6,862, TP3 6,895–6,905.
Management: No partials before TP1. At TP1 take ~70%, set runner to BE, no trail until TP2. Time-stop 45–60m if flat.

Pop-and-Fail SHORT at 6,788–6,800 (Tier-1, full size)
Trigger: Wick above 6,800 that can’t stick → 15m close back under 6,788, 5m confirms down → 1m lower high to enter.
Entry: 6,786–6,792.
Stop: Above the rejection wick +0.5.
• Targets: TP1 6,778, TP2 6,771.5–6,760.5, TP3 6,754 → 6,742.
Note: If TP1 prints in <10m, take ~50%, consider re-adding on a 5m LH.

Quick-Reclaim Bounce LONG at 6,758–6,754 (Tier-2, ¾ size)
Trigger: Flush into 6,758–6,754 that snaps back → 15m close back over 6,760, 5m holds → 1m HL entry.
Entry: 6,758–6,762.
Stop: 6,749–6,752 (below the sweep low −0.5).
• Targets: TP1 6,778, TP2 6,788, TP3 6,800.

Continuation SHORT under 6,754 (Tier-1, full size)
Trigger: 15m body under 6,754 plus a failed check-back into 6,754 on 5m.
Entry: 6,751–6,754 on the failed retest.
Stop: 6,762.
• Targets: TP1 6,736–6,728, TP2 6,720–6,700, TP3 6,685–6,680.

Price Action Road Map for NY Trading Session

Opening Analysis:
- We'll begin by monitoring if the price can hold above the 6,788 level. If it does, look for a push toward 6,800. If the price gets rejected at this level, we will shift our strategy to Scenario B.

Bearish Scenario:
- If the price slips below 6,760, anticipate a potential stop run targeting the 6,758 to 6,754 range.

Response Strategies
- If we observe a quick snap back from this region, be prepared to target the VWAP area, along with revisiting the 6,788 and 6,800 levels.
- Should we fail to reclaim these higher levels, prepare for a move down towards the 6,720s and potentially the 6,680s.

Afternoon Strategy:
- In the afternoon session, if we establish a clear comfort zone during the morning, consider fading the extremes until we see a definitive 15-minute body break from this zone.

Stay focused on these levels and remain adaptable to the market's behavior throughout the session. Good luck!