ES (SPX, SPY) Analyses, Key Zones, Setups Fri (Oct 10)

Session Roadmap (London → NY)

London (02:00–05:00 ET): Expect balance 6792–6807. A sustained London hold above 6802–6805 increases odds of a pre-NY probe into 6809–6812. A London slip below 6784.5 shifts risk to a VWAP check 6777–6780 and potentially 6766–6761 into NY AM.

NY AM (09:30–11:00): Two-way opening likely unless 6812 converts rapidly; watch 9:45–10:05 for the sentiment print impulse.
NY PM (13:30–16:00): If morning sets a trend, expect continuation toward RE1/RE2; otherwise back-to-value rotations inside 6780–6795.

TIER-1 (A++) — Breakout LONG above PDH/ONH
Trigger: 15m full-body close above 6810–6812, then a 5m hold/re-close with HLs.
Entry: 6810.75–6812.25 on the first clean retest/hold.
Invalidation (hard SL): 6804.75 (below retest & today’s open region).
TPs: TP1 6821.75 (RE1), TP2 6834.00, TP3 6841.25.


TIER-1 (A++) — Breakdown SHORT through Y-VAL/PDL
Trigger: 15m full-body close below 6766.5 and then 6760.75, with a 5m retest 6764–6766 that fails.
Entry: 6764.00–6766.00 on the rejection.
Invalidation (hard SL): 6772.50 (back above value shelf).
TPs: TP1 6748.50, TP2 6736.50, TP3 6729.00.

TIER-2 (A+ Bounce) — Quick-reclaim LONG at Value Shelf
Trigger: Fast flush into 6777–6780 with a 1m reclaim of 6780.5 and 5m re-close above.
Entry: 6778.00–6780.50 after the reclaim.
SL: 6771.25.
TPs: TP1 6792.75 (Asia H pivot), TP2 6805.50 (today’s open/nearby shelf), runner eye 6810–6812 if momentum.

TIER-3 (A Bounce) — Exhaustion-flush LONG at PDL
Trigger: Liquidity sweep 6758–6752 that reclaims 6761 on 1m and 5m holds.
Entry: 6754–6756 on the reclaim.
SL: 6750.75.
TPs: TP1 6777.75 (VWAP), TP2 6789–6792 (pivot band).

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Price-Path Scenarios (most to least likely)

1. Balance → Break Probe: Early churn inside 6792–6807; successful lift through 6810–6812 post-10:00 unlocks 6821.75 (RE1).
   
2. Fade to Value: Early rejection at 6809–6812 leads to a drift back into 6784/80 → 6777.75; buyers defend value and keep the range intact.
   
3. Bear Extension (data-shock needed): Clean 15m close below 6766.5/6760.75 opens 6748.50 with potential follow-through to 6736.50.