ES (SPX, SPY) Analyses, Key-Zones, Week (Mon 10/13 → Fri 10/17)

Macro drivers to watch (ET)

• Powell (NABE) — Tue 10/14 ~12:20. Markets will parse tone on growth/inflation. (Fed official calendar confirms time & venue.)
  
• PPI (Sep) — Thu 10/16 8:30. First major U.S. inflation print of the week. (BLS “Next Release”.)
  
• Advance Retail Sales (Sep) — Thu 10/16 8:30. Key read on demand into holiday season. (Census “MARTS” note; FRED release calendar.)
  
• CPI (Sep) — not this week; rescheduled to Fri 10/24 8:30 due to the shutdown. (BLS reschedule notice; CPI schedule.)
  
• Earnings kick-off (could move ES): JPM Tue 10/14, BAC Wed 10/15. (Company IR pages/press.)
  
• Market conditions: U.S. bond market closed Mon 10/13 (liquidity thinner); NYSE equities open. (SIFMA; NYSE hours.)
  
• Options expiration: standard monthly Fri 10/17. Expect pinning flows. (Cboe 2025 calendar.)
  

Setups (Level-KZ Protocol — 15m→5m→1m; NY kill-zones preferred)

TIER-1 (A++) — Rejection Short at 6790–6810 (NY AM)
Trigger: 15m full-body fails to hold above 6790–6810 → 5m prints a lower-high and re-closes back inside → 1m first pullback “pop-and-fail”.
Entry: 6796–6803 on the 1m failure.
Invalidation: Hard SL above the 15m fail-wick (guide 6814).
TPs: TP1 6738–6745, TP2 6690–6700, TP3 6625–6635.


TIER-1 (A++) — Quick-Reclaim Long at 6550–6560 (Asia/London → carry to NY)
Trigger: Liquidity sweep into 6550–6560, immediate 15m re-close back above 6600, 5m holds ≥6620, 1m higher-low entry.
Entry: 6602–6610 on the first pullback that holds.
Invalidation: Hard SL below the 15m sweep-low (guide 6544).
TPs: TP1 6690–6700, TP2 6738–6745, TP3 6768–6775.


TIER-2 (A+ Bounce) — 6590–6596 fast reclaim
Trigger: Wick through 6590–96 that immediately reclaims ≥6620 on 5m.
Entry/SL: Enter 6615–6622; SL below sweep-low −0.5pt.
Targets: 6690 then 6738–45. ¾ size.

TIER-3 (A Bounce) — 6515–6525 exhaustion flush
Trigger: Capitulation into the 4H PWL band with 15m reversal signal.
Entry/SL: Scale inside the band; SL below the 15m reversal wick.
Targets: 6590–96 then 6690. ½ size; only first touch.