ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Key Levels, Setups For Fri (Oct 17)

MACRO SCHEDULE (ET) — confirmed not impacted by shutdown
• NY AM: No confirmed 8:30 ET U.S. government releases (data blackout continues).
• 16:15 — Fed H.8 (weekly bank data) — after cash close; limited intraday impact.

BIAS:
• Short-term momentum is down; price sits in the lower half of this week’s range.
• Expect a liquidity probe lower in London, then a bounce attempt into NY AM if key demand holds.

SETUPS — Level-KZ Protocol (15m→5m→1m)

Tier-1 (A++) — Continuation SHORT from R1/R2
Trigger: 15m rejection back below 6,663–6,670 ➜ 5m re-close below with LH ➜ 1m first pullback fails.
Entry: 6,658–6,662.
SL: Above 15m trigger wick +0.25–0.50.
TP1: 6,604 (≥2.0R gate). TP2: 6,564. TP3: 6,520.


Tier-1 (A++) — Acceptance SHORT below S1
Trigger: 15m full-body close < 6,642 ➜ 5m pullback holds below ➜ 1m LH entry.
Entry: 6,638–6,641.
SL: Above 6,646 +0.25–0.50.
Targets: TP1 6,604; TP2 6,564; TP3 6,520. Management as above.

Tier-2 (A+ Bounce) — Quick-Reclaim LONG at S2
Trigger: Fast sweep below 6,604 with immediate 15m reclaim ➜ 5m hold/re-close above ➜ 1m HL entry.
Entry: 6,605–6,609.
SL: 6,596–6,598 (15m wick low −0.25–0.50).
TP1: 6,663; TP2: 6,690–6,700. Size ¾.

Tier-3 (A Bounce) — Exhaustion LONG at S3
Trigger: Flush into 6,564 ±3 with capitulation wick and 15m momentum pivot ➜ 5m HL ➜ 1m trigger.
SL: Below 6,556–6,558.
TP1: 6,604; TP2: 6,663. Size ½.

INVALIDATION:
• Invalidate long bias if 15m accepts below 6,564 (two 15m bodies or one decisive close ≥1.5pt).
• Invalidate short bias if 15m accepts above 6,718 and holds.
• Max 2 attempts per level per session; stop trading at −2R net or after +3R net.

NEWS / HEADLINE NOTES
With government data paused, price will be more technically driven. Fed headlines can spark brief moves; prioritize level reactions over narrative.
Earnings/gamma flows may add noise near R1 (6,663–6,670) and R2 (6,710–6,718).