ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Key Levels, Setups for Wed (Oct 29)

As we look at the current market conditions, the price is hovering just below the 6939-6946 resistance level. We should anticipate a test of this ceiling soon. A solid acceptance above 6946 on the 15-minute chart would likely trigger a movement towards the 6965-6975 range, which we can expect to see during the afternoon session in NY.

In terms of our range path, if we see rejection in the 6939-6946 zone, we will need to monitor for rotations between 6939, 6928, and 6916. A clean break beyond any of these levels will help establish our direction moving forward.

On the downside, a decisive 15-minute close below the 6916-6912 area could lead us back to the 6900-6896 levels. If that support fails, we could see a drop to 6892-6888, and then down to 6883-6880. Persistent acceptance below our S5 level would promote a further decline towards 6868-6864 and potentially trigger the gap references.

Lastly, I want to highlight that we should expect a compression-to-expansion behavior in the market. Thus, the first acceptance beyond R1 or below S0 will likely dictate the market's direction for the day.

Level-KZ Protocol (15/5/1). Execute inside London 02:00–05:00 (opt), NY AM 09:30–11:00, NY PM 13:30–16:00.
Working levels: R2 6965–6975; R1 6939–6946; MP 6928–6924; S0 6916–6912; S2 6900–6896; S3 6892–6888; S4 6883–6880; S5 6878–6874.

SETUP 1 — Acceptance-Continuation LONG (through R1)
Trigger: 15m close ≥ 6946, then 5m pullback holds above 6940 and re-closes; 1m HL entry.
Entry: 6942–6946 on the reclaim/HL.
SL: Hard SL below the 15m pullback wick (typically 6937–6939) ±0.25–0.50.
TP1: 6965–6975 (R2).
TP2: Leave runner only if momentum persists beyond R2 during NY PM.
Invalidation: 15m close back under 6939 with a 5m LH.

SETUP 2 — Rejection-Fade SHORT (at R1)
Trigger: Sweep into 6939–6946 that fails → 15m close back inside; 5m LH + 1m first pullback failure.
Entry: 6937–6943 on the fail.
SL: 6948–6950.
TP1: 6928–6924 (MP).
TP2: 6916–6912 (S0).
Stretch: 6900–6896 (S2) if acceptance forms below S0.
Invalidation: 15m acceptance ≥ 6946.

SETUP 3 — Quick-Reclaim Bounce LONG (MP)
Trigger: Fast flush into 6928–6924 that instantly reclaims on 1m and prints a 5m re-close.
Entry: 6926–6929 on the reclaim.
SL: 6923.25–6923.75.
TP1: 6939–6946 (R1).
TP2: 6965–6975 (R2) only after 15m acceptance through R1.
Invalidation: 15m close back below 6924.

SETUP 4 — Quick-Reclaim Bounce LONG (S0 flip)
Trigger: Sweep/flush into 6916–6912, immediate reclaim → 5m re-close.
Entry: 6917–6920 on strength back above 6916.
SL: 6911.50–6912.00.
TP1: 6928–6924 (MP).
TP2: 6939–6946 (R1).
Invalidation: 15m body-through below 6912.

SETUP 5 — Back-Inside Failure SHORT (under S2)
Trigger: 15m body close < 6896, then 5m retest of 6900–6896 holds from below.
Entry: 6898–6900 on the fail.
SL: 6903.00–6903.50.
TP1: 6892–6888 (S3).
TP2: 6883–6880 (S4).
Stretch: 6878–6874 (S5) — expect bounce attempts.
Invalidation: 15m reclaim ≥ 6900 with 5m re-close.