Context
• Price has been capped by a well-defined descending trendline (orange-tagged lower highs) since last week.
• Into month-end, the selloff lost momentum and compressed into a falling wedge/descending triangle against a 23,93x–23,94x demand (marked by EQL/“weak low”).
• We’ve now impulsed through the local trendline and into the prior 1H supply band, flipping it to potential support.
Structure & confluence on the break
• Multiple BOS/CHoCH prints inside the wedge signaled absorption/basing before the break.
• The breakout occurs around the 0.618 pullback area of the last minor leg, with a neat cluster of equal lows below (liquidity left behind), and room to the upside until the next heavy area: the higher, older trendline / “Strong High” zone.
• Measured from the wedge height, the projection aligns with ~24,387 (shown on chart).
Plan (not financial advice)
• Bias: Long on breakout and/or retest of the broken trendline / prior supply.
• Entry zone: 23,970–23,986 (retest/acceptance above the break).
• Invalidation: 1H close back below 23,930–23,937 (back inside the wedge and under the micro base).
• Protective stop: 23,902 (beneath the “weak low” and wedge base).
• Targets:
• TP1: 24,060 (first 1H supply & dashed mid-range).
• TP2: 24,180–24,220 (prior EQH/dashed line).
• TP3: 24,300 (round number & prior reaction).
• Final: 24,387 (confluence with the higher trendline; your blue arrow).
• R:R guide: From ~23,980 entry to 23,902 stop is ~78 pts risk; to 24,387 is ~+407 pts → ~5.2R if full target prints.
• Management: Once price accepts above ~23,986, consider moving to BE; trail under each new 1H swing low as we stair-step up. Failure to hold 23,970 on the retest = stand aside and reassess.
Alt (bearish) scenario
• A sharp rejection from 24,06x–24,18x and a close back under 23,930 would turn the break into a fake-out, exposing 23,880 → 23,840 and, if that fails, the deeper demand around 23,80x.
Heads-up (event risk this week)
• Eurozone/Germany PMIs (Mon–Tue), Euro area flash HICP (Tue), Germany Factory Orders (Fri), and US NFP (Fri) can all inject volatility—size appropriately and be wary around release times.
GER30
• Price has been capped by a well-defined descending trendline (orange-tagged lower highs) since last week.
• Into month-end, the selloff lost momentum and compressed into a falling wedge/descending triangle against a 23,93x–23,94x demand (marked by EQL/“weak low”).
• We’ve now impulsed through the local trendline and into the prior 1H supply band, flipping it to potential support.
Structure & confluence on the break
• Multiple BOS/CHoCH prints inside the wedge signaled absorption/basing before the break.
• The breakout occurs around the 0.618 pullback area of the last minor leg, with a neat cluster of equal lows below (liquidity left behind), and room to the upside until the next heavy area: the higher, older trendline / “Strong High” zone.
• Measured from the wedge height, the projection aligns with ~24,387 (shown on chart).
Plan (not financial advice)
• Bias: Long on breakout and/or retest of the broken trendline / prior supply.
• Entry zone: 23,970–23,986 (retest/acceptance above the break).
• Invalidation: 1H close back below 23,930–23,937 (back inside the wedge and under the micro base).
• Protective stop: 23,902 (beneath the “weak low” and wedge base).
• Targets:
• TP1: 24,060 (first 1H supply & dashed mid-range).
• TP2: 24,180–24,220 (prior EQH/dashed line).
• TP3: 24,300 (round number & prior reaction).
• Final: 24,387 (confluence with the higher trendline; your blue arrow).
• R:R guide: From ~23,980 entry to 23,902 stop is ~78 pts risk; to 24,387 is ~+407 pts → ~5.2R if full target prints.
• Management: Once price accepts above ~23,986, consider moving to BE; trail under each new 1H swing low as we stair-step up. Failure to hold 23,970 on the retest = stand aside and reassess.
Alt (bearish) scenario
• A sharp rejection from 24,06x–24,18x and a close back under 23,930 would turn the break into a fake-out, exposing 23,880 → 23,840 and, if that fails, the deeper demand around 23,80x.
Heads-up (event risk this week)
• Eurozone/Germany PMIs (Mon–Tue), Euro area flash HICP (Tue), Germany Factory Orders (Fri), and US NFP (Fri) can all inject volatility—size appropriately and be wary around release times.
GER30 
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.