Long
Germany DAX 40 ($DE40) 1H: Volatility CompressionGermany DAX 40 ( ICMARKETS:DE40 ) 1H: Volatility Compression Inside Major Rectangle Range – Awaiting Institutional Breakout Trigger
### 🇩🇪 Germany DAX 40 Index ( ICMARKETS:DE40 ) 1H Technical Brief (Ref: DE40_2026-07-14_08-35-55.png)
We are deploying a tactical short-term market study on the Germany DAX 40 ( ICMARKETS:DE40 ) on the 1-Hour (1H) time matrix. The European benchmark has locked into a highly structured **Rectangle Consolidation Range**, compressing aggregate volume between multi-day liquidity parameters.
The index displays quiet intraday balance today, trading up **+0.15% at 24,975.00**, anchored dead-center within this distribution block.
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### 🔍 The Range Architecture:
Our framework isolates two major structural boundaries governing current order flow:
1. **The 25,200 Supply Ceiling:** The upper boundary of the rectangle block (horizontal red line sitting at **25,153.69**) presents a massive technical wall for the bulls. This structural ceiling heavily confluences with the dynamic **200-period EMA (purple line at 25,152.03)**. Buyers have consistently faced aggressive institutional distribution at this boundary.
2. **The 24,770 Demand Floor:** Conversely, the lower boundary of the range (horizontal red line sitting at **24,814.69**) remains heavily defended. This support corridor is reinforced by a major long-term **Ascending Support Trendline (the red diagonal LTA)**, which has systematically absorbed sell-side flush sequences.
*The flat, horizontal alignment of our short-term **72-period SMA ribbons (orange line sitting at 25,038.35)** further mathematically validates this equilibrium phase.*
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### 📊 Tactical Playbook: Patience and Boundary Confirmation
As long as the index remains trapped within this rectangle, localized price action remains highly random. Our systematic playbook advises standing aside and waiting for a clean institutional breakout sequence:
* **Bullish Breakout Scenario:** Requires a decisive 1H/4H candle close above **25,200** and the 200-EMA. Acceptance above this zone invalidates the range sellers and triggers a momentum squeeze toward the **25,450+** premium targets.
* **Bearish Breakdown Scenario:** A confirmed breach below the **24,770** baseline and the diagonal red LTA will signal an immediate breakdown of structural support, opening the door for an aggressive markdown leg into discount arrays below **24,550**.
### 📈 Trading Plan Summary:
* **Immediate Bias:** Strictly Neutral (Congestion Phase)
* **Overhead Resistance:** 25,150 – 25,200 (Range Top & 200-EMA Confluence)
* **Downside Support:** 24,770 – 24,815 (Range Bottom & Ascending LTA)
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📊 **ChartPro Data**
*European Equity Architecture, Volume Compression Frameworks & Systematic Breakout Sourcing.*
⚠️ **Disclaimer:** For educational and informational purposes only. This technical study represents a personal trading model and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Long 
Germany 40 Bulls Take Control | DAX40 Market Opportunity🏦💰 GER40/DAX40 (GERMANY 40) INDEX CFD
HEIST BLUEPRINT: BULLISH TRADE OPPORTUNITY GUIDE (DAY/SWING) 💰🏦
👋 Ladies & Gentlemen, Thief OG's — the vault doors are open again. Here's today's heist plan on GER40, mapped out block by block. Read the full brief before you make your move. 🔓📈
🎯 THE PLAN: BULLISH HEIST
Vault Zone (Entry): You can enter the market at any price level that fits your own strategy — this is your call, Thief OG's, not a fixed entry order. 🔑
Getaway Point (Main Target): 26,500 — but heads up, a police barricade (strong resistance) sits above current price, and overbought conditions + a potential trap/reversal zone are lurking here. Escape with your profits before the sirens go off. 🚨💼
⏱️ DAY TRADER GETAWAY POINTS
Getaway Target 1: 25,750
Getaway Target 2: 26,000
📌 Note from Thief Boss: I'm not recommending you rely only on my TP. It's your own choice how you run this job — take your money at your own risk. Trade smart, Thief OG's. 🧠
🚔 THIEF SL (STOP LOSS)
Thief SL @ 24,500
📌 Note from Thief Boss: Same goes for the SL — I'm not recommending you rely only on mine. Set your own risk boundary and protect your own vault. 🛡️
🔗 RELATED PAIRS TO WATCH (CORRELATION WATCH)
EUR/USD ($1.1432 area) — Inverse correlation. A weaker Euro lowers the cost of German exports, historically supportive for GER40; a stronger Euro can act as a headwind for German exporters.
US30/Dow Jones & SPX500 — Positive correlation. Global risk-on sentiment across Wall Street tends to spill over into European equities, including GER40.
ESTX50/EuroStoxx 50 — Strong positive correlation as GER40 is a core weight within the broader Eurozone equity benchmark.
EUR/JPY — Indirect positive correlation through European risk sentiment and carry-trade flows.
Brent Crude Oil — Inverse pressure watch: rising oil prices raise input costs for German industry and can fuel inflation concerns, indirectly weighing on sentiment.
🌍 FUNDAMENTALS & ECONOMIC FACTORS:
The Euro is trading near one-year lows against the Dollar, with markets pricing in further ECB tightening (over 30bps priced in) amid elevated core inflation.
Germany's cabinet has approved a 2027 budget draft with increased spending (~€555.4B) and higher borrowing (~€203.6B), a fiscal factor markets are digesting.
Ongoing Middle East tensions (US-Iran) have kept oil prices elevated, adding inflationary crosswinds that the ECB is watching closely.
This week's calendar includes FOMC June meeting minutes (Fed), Eurozone retail sales, German industrial production and trade data, and Germany's CPI print — all capable of moving volatility in GER40.
DAX components have shown mixed performance, with tech and industrials outperforming while some large-cap software names have lagged — a reminder that index moves reflect a broad basket, not a single theme.
This is pure market-state information — it does not favor the bullish or bearish case in this plan, take it as context only.
🕒 Data verified as of ~07:15 UK Time (10 July 2026) — always recheck live price/news before executing, markets move fast. ⏳
💬 THIEF TRADER WISDOM
"A true thief never chases the market — he waits patiently in the shadows for the vault to open itself." 🖤
"Profit is the getaway, not the greed. Take what's yours and vanish before the trap closes." 🎭
⚠️ RISK DISCLAIMER
This is not financial advice. Trading CFDs carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always manage your own risk, Thief OG's — your capital, your call.
Stay sharp, stay patient, and may your next heist be a clean one. 🖤🔐 
Short
Long 
Long 
GER40 / DAX Short Idea – Range Top RejectionGER40 is once again testing the upper resistance area around 25,050 – 25,200. This zone has acted like a stubborn ceiling before, and price is now back there without a clean impulsive breakout so far.
The broader trend is still not dead — let’s not pretend this is some heroic “market crash incoming” call. The DAX is still trading in a high-level structure and the overall market context remains supported by global equity strength. However, at this exact spot, the risk/reward for a tactical short looks attractive.
This is a range-top short idea, not a blind bearish prophecy.
Price is sitting near the upper boundary of the recent consolidation. If sellers step in again and GER40 fails to hold above this resistance, I’m looking for a move back toward the lower range.
Setup
- Short entry : around 25,050 / rejection zone
- Stop Loss : 25,209
- Target 1 : 24,592
- Target 2 : 24,182
Why this setup makes sense
The 25k area is clearly a psychological and technical battleground. Price has pushed into this region several times, but so far the breakout attempt looks more like hesitation than domination.
The moving averages are also flattening and price is chopping around them, which often signals range behavior rather than clean trend continuation. In that type of market, buying resistance is usually not the smartest hobby — unless you enjoy donating liquidity.
T1 sits near the first major horizontal support of the current range. That is the logical first reaction area. If price breaks below that zone, T2 becomes interesting as the next support area and trendline confluence.
Invalidation
A clean break and hold above 25,209 invalidates the short idea.
If GER40 closes above that level with strength, the short setup goes straight into the bin — no emotional attachment, no “but my line looked pretty”, no revenge trading.
Trade management
At T1, partial profits make sense and stop can be moved to breakeven or reduced risk.
T2 is the more ambitious target and only makes sense if momentum actually expands lower.
In simple terms:
Resistance above.
Good risk/reward.
Clear invalidation.
No marriage contract with the trade.
DAX is currently standing at the ceiling asking whether it’s allowed upstairs. My plan is simple: if the ceiling holds, short it. If it breaks, step aside and let the bulls pay rent.
Not financial advice. Just a chart, a plan, and a German index with commitment issues.
#GER40 #DAX #TradingIdea #ShortSetup #TechnicalAnalysis #RiskManagement Short 
GER40 Price Outlook – Trade Setup🌐Macro Background
Traders are watching tonight's German CPI data and ECB President Lagarde's upcoming speech, as she indicated Europe's growing resilience to economic shocks, prompting a reduction in bets on ECB rate hikes this year. Meanwhile, market participants are assessing volatile geopolitical signals from the Middle East and mixed reports on US-Iran diplomacy.
📊Technical Structure
Bottoming Signals: Price action appears to be forming a bottom near key structural areas within a descending channel.
Support Zone: Strong demand between 24,439 and 24,587.
Resistance Zone: Supply and upper channel resistance between 25,062 and 25,207.
🎯 Trade Setup
Strategy: Buy on Dips
Entry: Look for buying opportunities on a retest within the Support Zone (24,439 - 24,587) or a breakout above resistance.
Target: Primary target is the Resistance Zone (25,062 - 25,207).
📌 Invalidation
The bullish bottoming structure will be invalidated if the price closes significantly below the key support level of 24,439.
📌 Trade Summary
The macroeconomic landscape is complex with geopolitical shifts and central bank events, but the 4-hour chart shows a strong risk-to-reward opportunity.
⚠️Disclaimer
This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Financial markets involve significant risk; proper risk and position management are essential. Long 
DAX This is why it can crash to 20000 by the end of the year.DAX (DE40) has been unable to break above its January Resistance and technically it's formed a Double Top. Despite the recovery from March's sharp fall that is giving the idea of a new long-term Bullish Leg, it is actually possible that this Double Top rejection might initiate a new Bearish Leg (Cycle), DAX's 6th within its 15-year Channel Up.
The 1M RSI and 1M MACD action suggests that DAX continues to follow the underlying technical script that always does at the start of Bear Cycles/ Legs.
Since 2009 and the end of the U.S. Housing Crisis, the market has started a multi-year Channel Up. Within that time-frame, 5 major corrections/ Bear Cycles (including March 2020 COVID flash crash) have occurred. On the broader scale of the Channel Up, those corrections have been nothing more that long-term technical Bearish Legs for the pattern.
The shared characteristics on all of them were that they all formed an 1M MACD Bearish Cross and they all hit the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line). Three even hit the 1M MA100 (green trend-line), while just one (March 2020 was a near miss) hit the 1M MA200 (orange trend-line), which is the generational Support of the market.
In February 2026, DAX got rejected from the most overbought 1M RSI level it's been within this 17-year Channel Up. The last three long-term Bear Cycles displayed similar 1M RSI sequences and all recovered a good percent of early losses following the initial drop but then extended the long-term downtrend with more aggressive declines.
This is what DAX did in April - May, recovering the Bear Cycle's early March losses. June has been flat and is about to end, so if the market repeats this very consistent pattern, then we should resume the downtrend by July and post at least a -24.35% total decline, which was the 'smallest' Bear Cycle that DAX had (2018). If it runs throughout the rest of the year, it should make contact with the 1M MA50 around 20000.
I have to note here that if the 1M RSI hits its long-term Support Zone first, then DAX turns into a long-term buy opportunity again, regardless of the price it is on at the time.
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💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 Short 
DAX Index 4H: Technical Bounce Eyes 25,150 ResistanceDAX Index 4H: Technical Bounce Eyes 25,150 Resistance Confluence Inside Major ATH Supply Zone
### 🇪🇺 DAX Index 4H Technical Structure Update (Ref: DAX_2026-06-25_09-19-24.png)
We are updating our technical blueprint on the DAX Index ( XETR:DAX - XETR) by shifting our focus to the 4-Hour (4H) structural timeframe. Following a brief period of localized contraction, the German benchmark is showcasing a solid intraday recovery, printing gains of **+0.60% at 24,862.66**.
While the immediate micro-momentum is shifting back to the upside, the index is fast approaching a highly complex structural ceiling.
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### 🔍 Technical Geometry & The 25,150 Cluster:
1. **The Bullish Pivot Activation:** After checking down to retest major lower trend parameters, immediate buyer demand stepped back into the tape. This reactive volume has launched an upward push (modeled by our blue vertical vector) driving the index above the local lows.
2. **The Dual-Layer Resistance Intersection:** The target for this short-term structural leg is fixed near the **25,150** horizontal mark. At this precise node, two prominent technical factors converge:
* **Static Horizontal Resistance:** A major historical level locked at **25,157.09** (the upper horizontal red line).
* **Dynamic Diagonal Resistance:** The multi-week descending **Line of Trend (LT)** (the upper red diagonal line).
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### ⚠️ The Historical ATH Ceiling (The 25,100 – 25,400 Trap):
We want to issue a vital structural alert regarding fresh long positions inside the upcoming price envelope. The entire territory spanning from **25,100 up to 25,400** represents the asset's **All-Time High (ATH)** distribution zone.
This wide bracket is historically heavy, packed with institutional selling orders, and highly prone to jagged liquidity sweeps. Entering momentum breakouts directly into this range carries sub-optimal win probabilities, as the index requires considerable volume accumulation to permanently dissolve this overhead ceiling.
### Tactical Framework:
Our strategic layout projects a continuation of the current bounce to complete its test at the **25,150** intersection. Momentum traders can manage existing short-term longs into this cluster. However, swing traders should monitor price reaction near **25,157** closely, looking for institutional exhaustion signatures or lower-timeframe reversal candles to map asymmetric short-hedges back toward the **72 SMA (orange line at 24,897.74)** or the structural **24,431.56** baseline.
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📊 **ChartPro Data**
*European Indices Architecture, Structural Confluence Mapping & Macro Ceilings Engineering.*
⚠️ **Disclaimer:** For educational and informational purposes only. This technical framework represents a personal trading model and does not constitute financial or investment advice. DAX 40 Record High Hunt Continues | Bullish Outlook🔥💰 GER40 — GERMANY DAX 40 INDEX CFD 💰🔥
🐂 BULLISH HEIST PLAN | DAY & SWING TRADE OPPORTUNITY GUIDE 🐂
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🌟 DEAR THIEF OG's — WELCOME BACK TO THE VAULT! 🌟
The heist crew is locked in. The charts are talking. And the FOREXCOM:GER40 market is laying out a fresh opportunity for the bold, the disciplined, and the dangerous. Let's break it down like only Thief Traders know how. 🎯
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📊 LIVE MARKET SNAPSHOT 📊
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📌 Asset: FOREXCOM:GER40 — Germany DAX 40 Index CFD (Frankfurt Stock Exchange | Xetra)
📅 Date: June 19, 2026
💹 Current Market Price: ~24,936 – 24,950 EUR (live quote)
📈 Previous Close (June 18): 25,027 EUR (+0.37% on the day)
📉 Today's Intraday Range: 24,838 – 25,065
📊 52-Week Range: 21,863 (Low) — 25,507 (All-Time High | Jan 13, 2026)
🔢 Volume (3M Avg): ~32.9M | Today's Vol: ~11.69M (live)
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🎯 THIEF TRADER'S MASTER HEIST PLAN — BULLISH 🟢
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🚪 ENTRY ZONE:
✅ You can enter at ANY price level — price action entry, pullback entry, breakout entry. Your call, your style, your edge. The beauty of this setup is flexibility. Whether you're scalping the 5M or swinging the 4H, the bias is your compass.
🎯 TARGET LEVELS (THE GETAWAY CHECKPOINTS):
🏁 Day Trader's Quick Loot:
→ 🥇 Target 1 — 25,400 (First cash register — ring it and run if needed)
→ 🥈 Target 2 — 25,550 (Second floor vault — stronger hands, bigger reward)
🏆 Swing Trader's Grand Vault:
→ 💎 MAIN TARGET — 25,700 🚨
⚠️ WHY 25,700 IS THE ESCAPE ZONE?
The 25,700 area is our Heist Exit Point — this zone is loaded with:
🚔 Police Force = Strong Historical Resistance Cluster
🔴 Overbought RSI Conditions at Higher Timeframes
🪤 Institutional Bull Trap Territory
🔁 Potential Reversal & Distribution Zone
💡 SMART MONEY WARNING: Don't get greedy beyond this zone. Take your profits and vanish like a ghost. 👻
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🔐 THIEF'S STOP LOSS 🔐
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🛑 Thief SL: 24,500
This is where the Thief draws the line. Below this level, the heist plan is compromised and the market has spoken louder than our setup.
⚠️ IMPORTANT NOTE — Dear Ladies & Gentlemen, Thief OG's:
I am NOT recommending you set ONLY my SL or ONLY my TP. It is YOUR own choice. You can make money — then TAKE your money. Manage your risk at your own discretion. I provide the map, you drive the getaway car. 🚗💨
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📰 LIVE FUNDAMENTAL & MACRO FACTORS 📰
(NEUTRAL DATA — MARKET SAYS ONLY — NO BIAS)
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🏦 ECB POLICY:
→ 🔺 ECB raised its deposit rate by 25 bps to 2.25% on June 11, 2026 — first rate hike of the current cycle
→ Markets had priced in a 95%+ probability of this hike — minimal shock to the market on delivery
→ ECB's hawkish pivot was triggered by Eurozone inflation rising to 3.0% in April 2026
📊 GERMAN ECONOMIC DATA (LATEST ACTUAL READINGS):
→ 🇩🇪 Germany Inflation Rate (May 2026): +2.6% (German Federal Statistical Office | June 12, 2026)
→ 🏭 Germany Factory Orders (April 2026): -3.8% MoM (4th consecutive weak reading)
→ 🏗️ Germany Industrial Production (April 2026): +0.4% MoM (slight recovery)
→ 📦 Germany Exports (April 2026): +0.9% MoM
→ 💰 Germany Wholesale Prices (May 2026): +5.9% YoY
→ 📉 Germany GDP Growth (Q1 2026): +0.3% QoQ (revised up from Q4 2025's +0.2%)
→ 📌 Full-Year GDP Forecast 2026: +0.6% to +0.9% (Ifo Institute / EU Commission)
→ 👷 Unemployment Rate: Rising toward 4.0% in 2026 (EU Commission forecast)
→ 🏢 DAX Constituent EBIT Growth Q1 2026: +4.4% YoY (aggregate | EY analysis)
🌍 GEOPOLITICAL & MACRO DRIVERS (LIVE):
→ 🕊️ US–Iran interim peace agreement signed — 60-day ceasefire extension active; Strait of Hormuz shipping resumption agreed
→ ❌ US–Iran Geneva peace talks scheduled for TODAY (June 19) were CALLED OFF — raising fresh uncertainty
→ 🛢️ Oil prices pulled back on peace deal optimism but edged higher again today after Geneva cancellation
→ 🇺🇸 New US Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered hawkish signals — rejection of forward guidance and dot-plot framework
→ 📉 S&P 500 fell 1.21%, Nasdaq -1.34%, Dow Jones -0.98% on June 19 — US risk-off tone noted
→ 🏆 DAX 6-session winning streak in progress heading into June 19 session
📈 LATEST DAX SESSION MOVERS (June 18, 2026):
→ 🟢 Infineon Technologies: +7.14% | Siemens Energy: +4.70% | MTU Aero Engines: +3.39%
→ 🔴 SAP: -4.80% | Mercedes-Benz: -4.52% | BMW: -4.02%
→ 📊 Euro STOXX 50 weekly gain: +2.1% | STOXX 600 weekly gain: +0.6%
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🔗 CORRELATED ASSETS TO WATCH 🔗
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💱 $EUR/USD — INVERSE CORRELATION 🔄
→ A weaker Euro typically supports the FOREXCOM:GER40 as it boosts the export revenues of Germany's multinational giants like Siemens, BASF, and BMW in foreign currency terms. A stronger EUR compresses those same margins. Keep one eye on the pair at all times — it's the DAX's shadow.
📊 FX:EUSTX50 — Euro STOXX 50 — HIGH POSITIVE CORRELATION 🟢
→ The closest European cousin to the DAX. If Euro STOXX 50 is running, DAX tends to follow. Both share major constituent overlap and respond to the same ECB policy, Eurozone inflation, and geopolitical risk factors. Currently Euro STOXX 50 futures down -0.4% this morning — watch for drag.
📊 CAPITALCOM:SPX500 — S&P 500 — POSITIVE CORRELATION 🟢
→ Global risk sentiment leader. When Wall Street catches a cold, Frankfurt sneezes. The US–Iran and Fed policy uncertainty currently creating headwinds from the US side. Monitor New York open for sentiment shift.
📊 CAPITALCOM:US30 — Dow Jones Industrial Average — POSITIVE CORRELATION 🟢
→ Heavy industrial weighting in both indices creates shared sensitivity to global trade flows, energy costs, and manufacturing demand. Both are export-oriented economy proxies.
📊 TVC:CAC40 — France CAC 40 — HIGH POSITIVE CORRELATION 🟢
→ Key European peer index. France and Germany move in tight lockstep on ECB decisions, Eurozone GDP data, and geopolitical risk across the EU. If TVC:CAC40 shows strength, FOREXCOM:GER40 is rarely far behind.
📊 FOREXCOM:UK100 — FTSE 100 — MODERATE POSITIVE CORRELATION 🟡
→ European market sentiment linkage, though the FTSE is more commodity and energy-heavy. A risk-on European session typically lifts both, but divergence can occur on UK-specific data.
💵 TVC:DXY — US Dollar Index — MIXED / INVERSE via EUR/USD 🔄
→ A weakening DXY typically means EUR strength, which creates mixed signals for the DAX. However, a falling DXY also tends to boost global risk appetite — net effect depends on which force dominates.
🛢️ TVC:USOIL — Crude Oil (WTI) — SENSITIVE INVERSE FOR INDUSTRIALS ⚠️
→ Higher oil prices raise energy input costs for German manufacturers. The Iran conflict and Hormuz situation remain the live variable. Today's bounce in oil after Geneva talks cancellation is worth watching closely.
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⚠️ RISK DISCLAIMER ⚠️
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Dear Ladies & Gentlemen, Thief OG's — I am NOT recommending you set ONLY my Target or ONLY my Stop Loss. It is entirely your own choice. You can make money — then TAKE your money. Your capital, your risk, your rules. Trading CFD instruments involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all traders. Always trade with capital you can afford to lose. Thief Trader provides ideas for educational and entertainment purposes only — not financial advice.
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📌 SUPPORT THE HEIST CREW! 📌
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If this idea helped you — smash that 👍 LIKE button, drop a 💬 COMMENT with your levels, and hit FOLLOW 🔔 for live heist updates. Every boost helps the Thief Trader crew reach more OG's across the globe. Let's build this vault together. 🏦💎
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Until it does make a new ATH, DAX's price action since Q4 2025 is very similar to the 2018 Bear Cycle. With identical 1D RSI sequences among the two fractals, both patterns started off with a 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) rebound that led the market to a new ATH and then a strong correction to touch exactly the 1W MA100 (red trend-line), form a 1D Death Cross and rebound.
As mentioned, we are currently on the phase below the Resistance. In 2018 that phase initiated a new prolonged decline that broke even below the 1W MA200 (black trend-line) and on a -24.45% total decline, marginally broke below the 1.786 Fibonacci extension from the 1W MA100 Low.
This time the 1W MA200 is considerably lower than the 1W MA100, so unless we see a strong crash, the index should decline more gradually towards the end of the year and potentially test the 1W MA200 above both the 1.786 Fib ext and the -24.45% 2018 measurement.
As a result, we are expecting DAX to hit at least its 1W MA100 again at 22800. If it closes a 1W candle below it, then we can see a full Bear Cycle extending all the way to the 1W MA200 at 20000.
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👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 Short 
Long 
