Gold’s Secret Driver Flashes Red – What That Means at 3,745 Sup.

Gold’s rally just slammed into resistance at 3,780 - and now the market is deciding: does support at 3,745 hold for another leg up, or do rising USD and real yields flip the script? This is the most important zone of the week for gold traders.

Gold (XAUUSD) is pausing just below the 3,780 resistance zone after a strong run. The bigger trend remains bullish, but intraday momentum has cooled as the USD and yields firm up.

Daily Chart View (Big Picture)
• Trend intact: higher lows, structure still bullish.
• Support: 3,745 → 3,726.
• Resistance: 3,780 → 3,810 → 3,850.
• GLD ETF flows remain supportive on daily closes.

4H Chart View (Execution)
• Consolidation just under 3,780.
• Micro support: 3,745–3,750.
• Nominal yields (US10Y ~4.11%) and real yields (DFII10 ~1.78) are ticking higher → headwind.
• DXY firm at ~97.7.
• GLD 4H candles consolidating, not pushing higher.

Scenarios
1. Breakout Buy:
• 4H close >3,780 with DXY <97.5 & US10Y <4.10 and real yields easing.
• Target 3,810 → 3,850. Stop below 3,745.
2. Pullback Buy (Base Case):
• Dip into 3,745–3,750 holds, with GLD stabilizing.
• Target 3,780, then 3,810. Stop 3,726.
3. Bearish Flip (Lower Probability):
• 4H close <3,745 while DXY/real yields extend higher.
• Opens 3,726 → 3,700. Invalidation >3,780.

The daily trend is still bullish, but the 4H says momentum is cooling. Best risk/reward is to let gold test 3,745–3,750 for a dip-buy setup, or wait for a confirmed breakout >3,780 with the macro drivers aligned.

Are you buying the 3,745 dip, or waiting for a clean breakout at 3,780? Drop your view below ⬇️