The following only represents my personal thoughts. If you find it helpful, please like and follow to show your support! Please note that any strategy is time-sensitive. As market conditions change, the strategy will also change. I will notify you in the channel based on the actual market conditions!
Gold's nine-week weekly rise officially ended last week, marking the beginning of a phased adjustment for the previously strong bull market. The U.S. CPI data released last Friday was weak, and inflationary pressure was lower than expected, which was bullish for the precious metals market. Based on this, I issued a long order signal, and the gold price did rebound slightly, once reaching the $4,100 mark. However, the upward momentum did not continue to expand, and the price ultimately failed to break through the key resistance level of $4,160, indicating strong upward selling pressure in this area. This technical pattern indicates that it will be more difficult for gold to continue to rise at a high level in the short term. If the price rises back to the 4150-4160 range in the future, you can consider adopting a high-altitude strategy to seize the opportunity of a pullback.
Judging from the opening of this week, market sentiment has clearly cooled, with gold prices opening significantly lower and falling rapidly. The single-day drop has exceeded tens of dollars, reaching a low of around $4,060. It is worth noting that 4060 is the key support area that we emphasized last week, and it is also the bottom position in the previous oscillation structure. The current price is approaching or even testing this area, which means that the game between bulls and bears has entered a white-hot stage. If this support level is effectively broken, gold prices could retest back below $4,000, further confirming a shift from a strong short-term trend to a weak one. Absent unexpected geopolitical or financial risk events, the likelihood of gold continuing its downward trend significantly increases, and the risk of falling below the $4,000 mark is rising.
Looking back at the evolution of this round of trends, after nine consecutive weeks of positive closings on the weekly level, a negative line appeared, releasing an obvious signal of weakening bullish momentum. Meanwhile, technical indicators on the daily chart are beginning to show signs of fatigue: the MACD is showing shrinking red bars, the KDJ is forming a downward death cross at a high level, and prices are gradually moving away from the short-term moving average system. Currently, the price is facing a dual test of the 20-day moving average and the middle Bollinger Band. These two technical reference lines intersect in the 4060-4070 range, forming an extremely important bull-bear watershed at present. If the gold price can stabilize and rebound in this area, there is still a basis for maintaining range fluctuations; but once it falls, it will most likely start a new round of downward trend.
It is worth emphasizing that the inertial thinking of "rising as soon as the market opens" in the past period of time is no longer applicable to the current market environment. With the adjustment of macro expectations, the hawkish policy path of the Federal Reserve and the slowdown in gold purchases by some central banks, the unilateral upward logic of gold is weakening. Therefore, trading strategies must keep pace with the times and adjust directions in a timely manner.
Based on the current technical structure and market sentiment, this week's strategy should primarily focus on shorting rallies. It is recommended to arrange short orders in batches within the range of $4090 to $4110, and strictly set stop-loss to prevent unexpected reversals. At the same time, closely monitor the support level of $4060-4070. If a significant break occurs, the next target could be $3950 or even $3900. Barring any major risk events, gold prices are expected to remain under pressure, and a break below the psychologically important $4000 level is not out of the question.
Gold's nine-week weekly rise officially ended last week, marking the beginning of a phased adjustment for the previously strong bull market. The U.S. CPI data released last Friday was weak, and inflationary pressure was lower than expected, which was bullish for the precious metals market. Based on this, I issued a long order signal, and the gold price did rebound slightly, once reaching the $4,100 mark. However, the upward momentum did not continue to expand, and the price ultimately failed to break through the key resistance level of $4,160, indicating strong upward selling pressure in this area. This technical pattern indicates that it will be more difficult for gold to continue to rise at a high level in the short term. If the price rises back to the 4150-4160 range in the future, you can consider adopting a high-altitude strategy to seize the opportunity of a pullback.
Judging from the opening of this week, market sentiment has clearly cooled, with gold prices opening significantly lower and falling rapidly. The single-day drop has exceeded tens of dollars, reaching a low of around $4,060. It is worth noting that 4060 is the key support area that we emphasized last week, and it is also the bottom position in the previous oscillation structure. The current price is approaching or even testing this area, which means that the game between bulls and bears has entered a white-hot stage. If this support level is effectively broken, gold prices could retest back below $4,000, further confirming a shift from a strong short-term trend to a weak one. Absent unexpected geopolitical or financial risk events, the likelihood of gold continuing its downward trend significantly increases, and the risk of falling below the $4,000 mark is rising.
Looking back at the evolution of this round of trends, after nine consecutive weeks of positive closings on the weekly level, a negative line appeared, releasing an obvious signal of weakening bullish momentum. Meanwhile, technical indicators on the daily chart are beginning to show signs of fatigue: the MACD is showing shrinking red bars, the KDJ is forming a downward death cross at a high level, and prices are gradually moving away from the short-term moving average system. Currently, the price is facing a dual test of the 20-day moving average and the middle Bollinger Band. These two technical reference lines intersect in the 4060-4070 range, forming an extremely important bull-bear watershed at present. If the gold price can stabilize and rebound in this area, there is still a basis for maintaining range fluctuations; but once it falls, it will most likely start a new round of downward trend.
It is worth emphasizing that the inertial thinking of "rising as soon as the market opens" in the past period of time is no longer applicable to the current market environment. With the adjustment of macro expectations, the hawkish policy path of the Federal Reserve and the slowdown in gold purchases by some central banks, the unilateral upward logic of gold is weakening. Therefore, trading strategies must keep pace with the times and adjust directions in a timely manner.
Based on the current technical structure and market sentiment, this week's strategy should primarily focus on shorting rallies. It is recommended to arrange short orders in batches within the range of $4090 to $4110, and strictly set stop-loss to prevent unexpected reversals. At the same time, closely monitor the support level of $4060-4070. If a significant break occurs, the next target could be $3950 or even $3900. Barring any major risk events, gold prices are expected to remain under pressure, and a break below the psychologically important $4000 level is not out of the question.
Trade active
The short selling strategy around 4090 is correct! The price of gold has fallen by tens of dollars, and the new low has moved further down. If the price rebounds to the 4080-4090 area again, you can still short gold and focus on the support below. I am more inclined to see further declines, test $4,000 and set a new low.Trade closed: target reached
The 4080-4090 gold short position strategy is a resounding success! The market price has successfully fallen below $4,000. The bull market has become a thing of the past. Do not blindly buy at the bottom.
Patience is the hidden weapon of top traders.🚀
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t.me/Martin80808
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t.me/Martin80808
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Patience is the hidden weapon of top traders.🚀
🥇Free Strategy Guidance Channel🥇
t.me/Martin80808
🥇Free Strategy Guidance Channel🥇
t.me/Martin80808
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.