Gold rallied to 4379 after opening on Friday, then rebounded above 4370 after experiencing two crashes. The market generally expected gold to break through the 4400 mark. Although one of the two crashes resulted in a drop of over 100 points, this did not spur a further return of bears. Instead, the strength of the rebound gave the market bullish confidence. The subsequent crash immediately wiped out all the buying. As I mentioned in my previous two articles, everyone expected the price to rise again after falling.
The crash after the surge was actually expected. Whether it was the US government shutdown, rising expectations for an October rate cut, or the trade war and Russia-Ukraine spurring risk aversion, bullish momentum was constantly building. It was primarily driven by capital seeking to push up gold prices. Otherwise, the news had some impact, but not this significant. It's true that the Russia-Ukraine conflict hasn't escalated out of control. While a Fed rate cut is highly likely, the market had already priced in the news. Unless it's a significant rate cut, the impact will be limited. As for the US government shutdown, while it has an impact on the US economy, it's more of a civil war between the two parties, so the impact is also limited. As for tariffs, after all, they haven't been implemented, and there's no question of how much risk aversion they'll generate. Negotiations will happen anyway. Even combined, these various pieces of information wouldn't have spurred gold prices that much. After all, this month's rise from 3819 to 4379 is 560 points, and this week's rise from 4002 to 4379 is nearly 380 points. This is purely a malicious push.
So is this bull market in gold over? This recent correction has been particularly strong, prompting many to question whether gold has peaked. However, it's premature to call it a peak, and we shouldn't blindly dismiss the current strong trend. After all, the news hasn't yet signaled a significant decline, and the aforementioned events haven't been effectively addressed. Looking at the one-hour and four-hour charts, support remains near 4180 and 4160. Only a break below these levels will trigger further downside, two areas we need to watch in the short term. Upward pressure is currently at 4280-4300. If it breaks through these levels again, it's likely to revisit the previous highs. A break below these levels could lead to a push towards 4500.
Next Week's Trading Strategy:
Gold's focus is now on the 4280 area, which is currently the dividing line between bulls and bears. If gold fails to break through 4280 in a rebound next week, continue shorting gold on rallies. If gold ultimately breaks through and stabilizes at 4280 amidst the weekend's risk-averse rally, then bulls will return. Currently, gold is still trading below 4280, so continue shorting on rallies at the beginning of next week while under pressure at 4280.
If you're feeling lost and unsure about where to go in this market, follow my updates and my channel. I'll provide daily updates for your reference, including details on the execution of long- and short-term trades. If you'd like, please share your current positions so we can analyze whether it's safer to hold on or adjust and change positions in a timely manner.
Next week's trading plan is about to begin. If you have any trading questions (wanting to recover losses or increase profits), please feel free to contact me.
Thank you to everyone.
The crash after the surge was actually expected. Whether it was the US government shutdown, rising expectations for an October rate cut, or the trade war and Russia-Ukraine spurring risk aversion, bullish momentum was constantly building. It was primarily driven by capital seeking to push up gold prices. Otherwise, the news had some impact, but not this significant. It's true that the Russia-Ukraine conflict hasn't escalated out of control. While a Fed rate cut is highly likely, the market had already priced in the news. Unless it's a significant rate cut, the impact will be limited. As for the US government shutdown, while it has an impact on the US economy, it's more of a civil war between the two parties, so the impact is also limited. As for tariffs, after all, they haven't been implemented, and there's no question of how much risk aversion they'll generate. Negotiations will happen anyway. Even combined, these various pieces of information wouldn't have spurred gold prices that much. After all, this month's rise from 3819 to 4379 is 560 points, and this week's rise from 4002 to 4379 is nearly 380 points. This is purely a malicious push.
So is this bull market in gold over? This recent correction has been particularly strong, prompting many to question whether gold has peaked. However, it's premature to call it a peak, and we shouldn't blindly dismiss the current strong trend. After all, the news hasn't yet signaled a significant decline, and the aforementioned events haven't been effectively addressed. Looking at the one-hour and four-hour charts, support remains near 4180 and 4160. Only a break below these levels will trigger further downside, two areas we need to watch in the short term. Upward pressure is currently at 4280-4300. If it breaks through these levels again, it's likely to revisit the previous highs. A break below these levels could lead to a push towards 4500.
Next Week's Trading Strategy:
Gold's focus is now on the 4280 area, which is currently the dividing line between bulls and bears. If gold fails to break through 4280 in a rebound next week, continue shorting gold on rallies. If gold ultimately breaks through and stabilizes at 4280 amidst the weekend's risk-averse rally, then bulls will return. Currently, gold is still trading below 4280, so continue shorting on rallies at the beginning of next week while under pressure at 4280.
If you're feeling lost and unsure about where to go in this market, follow my updates and my channel. I'll provide daily updates for your reference, including details on the execution of long- and short-term trades. If you'd like, please share your current positions so we can analyze whether it's safer to hold on or adjust and change positions in a timely manner.
Next week's trading plan is about to begin. If you have any trading questions (wanting to recover losses or increase profits), please feel free to contact me.
Thank you to everyone.
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If you encounter any problems in the transaction, you can contact us and we will help you as much as possible!Trade closed: target reached
If you encounter any problems in the transaction, you can contact us and we will help you as much as possible!
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Join my telegram channel for free- t.me/GoldBitcoinSharing To follow the link, click on the globe icon on the next line
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.