Hello & welcome to this analysis
The decline from May 2024 till Mar 2025 appears to be an Elliott Wave corrective ABC that went on to make its all time lows breaking the previous one made in Oct 2023.
[1] The rally in Mar 2025 was a Leading Diagonal Impulse Wave 1
[2] It was followed by Wave 2 - a corrective ABC which did a 88% retracement giving a double bottom in early April 2025.
[3] From there started the strongest & most reliable Elliott Wave - 3 that lasted the full month of April 2025.
[4] Since Wave 2 was deep the corrective Wave 4 did a zigzag and ended quickly mid May 2025.
[5] The terminal wave 5 of the larger Wave I is coming to an end around 275 - 280.
This could lead to another round of corrective ABC which could be the larger Wave II in the making. Likely levels till where it could retrace its formation could be 255 at least, 240 probable & 205 hopefully maximum. Anything below Mar 2025 lows will make the Impulse wave rise as invalid.
On the other hand, if the current wave continues to sustain beyond 285-290 then it could be unfolding a Wave 3 extension that could lead to much higher levels.
Conclusion
For buyers - wait for it to sustain above 285-290 to add, else wait for a dip to 255 - 240 and then review
For sellers - between 275-280 wait for a bearish candle follow through keeping 285-290 as a stop loss.
All the best
The decline from May 2024 till Mar 2025 appears to be an Elliott Wave corrective ABC that went on to make its all time lows breaking the previous one made in Oct 2023.
[1] The rally in Mar 2025 was a Leading Diagonal Impulse Wave 1
[2] It was followed by Wave 2 - a corrective ABC which did a 88% retracement giving a double bottom in early April 2025.
[3] From there started the strongest & most reliable Elliott Wave - 3 that lasted the full month of April 2025.
[4] Since Wave 2 was deep the corrective Wave 4 did a zigzag and ended quickly mid May 2025.
[5] The terminal wave 5 of the larger Wave I is coming to an end around 275 - 280.
This could lead to another round of corrective ABC which could be the larger Wave II in the making. Likely levels till where it could retrace its formation could be 255 at least, 240 probable & 205 hopefully maximum. Anything below Mar 2025 lows will make the Impulse wave rise as invalid.
On the other hand, if the current wave continues to sustain beyond 285-290 then it could be unfolding a Wave 3 extension that could lead to much higher levels.
Conclusion
For buyers - wait for it to sustain above 285-290 to add, else wait for a dip to 255 - 240 and then review
For sellers - between 275-280 wait for a bearish candle follow through keeping 285-290 as a stop loss.
All the best
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Online courses on Harmonic Trading Patterns, Ichimoku & Trading Psychology Risk Management
t.co/3mGWp29Xkb
t.co/3mGWp29Xkb
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.