LULU at Critical Support – Bounce or Breakdown Post-Earnings?

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Trend Overview:

LULU has been in a clear downtrend since its peak near $516, forming consistent lower highs and lower lows.
Price is currently in the $200–$209 zone, sitting just above the long-term support area around $186.

Support & Resistance Levels:
Immediate Support: $200 → $186 (critical support).
Overhead Resistance: $240 (short-term), $263.9 (Fib zone), $290–312 (EMA cluster + horizontal supply).
Major Resistance: $351 → $390 → $445.

Indicators:
PMO (top grid): Still bearish, both lines sloping down, no crossover yet.
RSI (bottom grid): At 39, weak but not extremely oversold. Suggests pressure remains, though a short-term bounce is possible if support holds.

Bullish Case:
A rebound could come from the $200–$186 support zone, targeting $240–$264 initially.
For medium-term trend change, bulls need a decisive reclaim above $290–312.

Bearish Case:
A clean break below $186 would confirm another leg down, with risk toward the $150–160 zone.
Until price clears $264–$290, the broader trend remains bearish.

Earnings Catalyst:
Results are due on September 4th. Earnings could act as a volatility trigger. Staying cautious into results is important, as a surprise to the downside could break $186 support, while a strong beat could fuel a sharp bounce.

Risk/Reward Assessment (Long Side):
Entry Zone: $200–$186 support offers defined risk for a potential long.
Stop-Loss: Below $185.95 (structural invalidation).
Upside Targets: $240 (short-term), $263–$290 (swing).
Risk/Reward Ratio: Roughly 1:2 to 1:3 if entering near $190–200 with targets at $240–263.

Summary:
Trend remains bearish, but LULU is testing long-term support where risk/reward favors cautious long entries, provided stops are respected.
If $186 breaks, long setups are invalidated.
With earnings on Sep 4, traders should be careful as volatility may swing price sharply in either direction.

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