ORCL A Tradable Bounce?

ORCL is in a deep downtrend, a capitulation low & now a first bounce back toward the declining 50d MA

• ORCL sold off brutally from the $320s to $185
  
• The recent bottom was high-volume, capitulation-like, followed by a sharp multi-day reversal
  
• Price has now reclaimed $220, which was an important support-turned-resistance in the prior trend
  
• The stock is approaching the declining 50d MA, which is almost always a test in the first rebound after a major trend break
  

A technical rebound is underway, but ORCL has not confirmed a trend reversal

• The stock is in a repair phase, not a confirmed uptrend
  

RSI has lifted from deeply oversold levels and is now around 47-48

• That’s a constructive shift - rising momentum off oversold levels is bullish, but not yet a momentum breakout
  
• Stoch is fully overbought (~70–75) & still rising
  
• In the context of a downtrend, this often signals a pause or pullback is coming before trend reversal is confirmed
  
• Momentum is improving but stretched short-term, raising odds of chop or a retest into earnings
  

ORCL’s volume spike at the low looks like flush + reversal demand

• Subsequent up-days have lighter demand, suggesting early buyers grabbed the low, but institutions have not returned aggressively
  
• This is a tradable bounce, but not a major accumulation
  

ORCL typically carries +/-4% to +/-6% expected move into earnings

• For price at ~$223, that implies a post-earnings range of roughly $211-$236
  
• If volatility spikes ahead of earnings (as it often does for ORCL), the upper end can reach +/-7% (~$207–$239)
  
• ORCL rarely makes outsized earnings moves unless guidance shifts meaningfully
  

ORCL tends to drift higher into earnings after selloffs

• Post-earnings first day moves are usually +3% to -4%, with relatively few >8% outliers
  
• Guidance commentary typically matters more than the headline numbers
  

The current relief rally fits ORCL’s typical pre-earnings posture, but historical reactions skew toward moderate moves, not blowouts

Resistance

• $225–$230 is immediate resistance near the 50d MA
  
• $240 is a strong supply level from the October breakdown
  
• $260 is only reachable on a major earnings beat + guidance upgrade
  

Support

• $210 is the first level buyers must defend
  
• $200 is a psychological + structural support
  
• $185–$190 is the the capitulation low & losing this would signal a failed recovery & potential new down-leg
  

1. Bullish (high-quality beat + upbeat cloud/AI commentary)

• Price breaks above the 50d MA with volume
  
• Push into $235-$240
  
• Follow-through toward $250 possible if guidance confirms acceleration
  
• ~30%
  

2. Base Case (meets expectations, but no powerful guide)

• ORCL stalls at/near the 50d MA
  
• Post-earnings drift into $215-$225
  
• No trend reversal, but also no collapse
  
• ~50%
  

3. Bearish (miss, weak bookings, soft guide)

• Price rejected at 50d MA & drops below $210
  
• Retest of $190-$200
  
• If $185 breaks, downtrend resumes
  
• ~20%
  

The rebound is real, but it is early, it is approaching the first major resistance, momentum is short-term overbought & ORCL remains in a primary downtrend until proven otherwise

• This setup favors a modest move higher into earnings, not necessarily after earnings
  
• Upside is possible, but requires a strong fundamental catalyst
  

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