For the entire history of the SPX it has been trading max and low limits in an ascending wedge going back to the high and low of the Great Depression. We are currently slightly over the macro top trend with retail all in and influencers calling for higher targets. While it is possible that we rally, invalidating bearish divergence on the 3 month time frame is highly unlikely.
Put simply, inflation is high, retail is broke, and there is no logical reason for institutional investors to be holding or buying here as there is a price at which there will be no exit liquidity because no one will be available to purchase stocks and other assets from smart money at higher prices. We already have weekly RSI in overbought status currently.
We could invalidate 3 month divergence theoretically, but a liquidity crisis coupled with high inflation seems like the move over trend is bait to keep retail in a perpetual state of buying dips as investment firms slowly sell into their FOMO (fear of missing out.) It is, not only logical to take profits at these highs; it is imperative for anyone looking to preserve their funds until there are much lower prices.
Put simply, inflation is high, retail is broke, and there is no logical reason for institutional investors to be holding or buying here as there is a price at which there will be no exit liquidity because no one will be available to purchase stocks and other assets from smart money at higher prices. We already have weekly RSI in overbought status currently.
We could invalidate 3 month divergence theoretically, but a liquidity crisis coupled with high inflation seems like the move over trend is bait to keep retail in a perpetual state of buying dips as investment firms slowly sell into their FOMO (fear of missing out.) It is, not only logical to take profits at these highs; it is imperative for anyone looking to preserve their funds until there are much lower prices.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
