After reaching the all-time high area again with Elliott Wave C on the daily chart, a downside retracement looks likely. There are still gaps below to be filled, along with key Fibonacci levels yet to be tested. This creates a solid opportunity for a 1 ATR short trade, with the first target set at $412.
On the 1-hour chart, RSI, MACD, and Stochastic oscillators are all showing divergences, suggesting a potential break in the uptrend. The upward trendline has also been broken on the 1-hour timeframe, adding further confirmation for the short setup. On the 4-hour chart, ATR is currently 11, which puts a 2 ATR stop slightly above the recent highs, offering protection for the trade. If this level is invalidated, the short idea is likely premature.
This setup is quite similar to the Oracle move, where price gapped up to all-time highs before retracing:
Disclaimer: This idea is for educational purposes only. Please do not place trades solely based on this setup.
On the 1-hour chart, RSI, MACD, and Stochastic oscillators are all showing divergences, suggesting a potential break in the uptrend. The upward trendline has also been broken on the 1-hour timeframe, adding further confirmation for the short setup. On the 4-hour chart, ATR is currently 11, which puts a 2 ATR stop slightly above the recent highs, offering protection for the trade. If this level is invalidated, the short idea is likely premature.
This setup is quite similar to the Oracle move, where price gapped up to all-time highs before retracing:
Disclaimer: This idea is for educational purposes only. Please do not place trades solely based on this setup.
Trade active
Trade is still active, not over yet, but it hasn’t moved in the direction I planned. Here’s a quick recap of the mistakes I made:- FOMO is real. Even with years of experience, it can still push you into a setup too early. Publishing an idea also adds extra pressure, sometimes making it harder to stick to the rules.
- On the 1h chart, I overlooked the completed ABC retracement. The A and C legs created a double bottom at a key support zone, which fueled the bounce back to retest the $440–445 highs.
As mentioned in the original post, if price takes out the stop, the short idea was simply premature. There’s still a chance momentum flips after the weekend and we see downside early next week, though I also have to respect the possibility of a retest toward the $480s before any real correction develops.
Conclusion: This trade shows that the 0.5R strategy doesn’t always work, but with a winrate above 80%, one or two losses don’t change the bigger picture.
Trade is still active — let’s see how it plays out.
Trade closed: stop reached
Note
Just as predicted, the stop was triggered, but the overall trade idea and setup are still in play, a bearish retracement is anticipated.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.