Likely Bullish Gap at Open Followed by a Sharp Drop

Apr 12

📈 US100 – Likely Bullish Gap at Open Followed by a Sharp Drop 📉

On the 15-minute chart of the US100, we can see a corrective structure forming within an ascending channel, likely representing wave (B) of a larger correction. The price is currently near the top boundary of the channel, around 18,872.1.

🔍 Key Technical Highlights:

Clear prior bearish impulse.

Ongoing corrective move within a rising channel.

ABC correction forming inside the channel.

Potential rising wedge, suggesting bullish exhaustion.

📌 Main Hypothesis: I expect the market to open with a bullish gap, potentially reaching or briefly exceeding the 18,872.1 level, before starting a stronger downward move toward 17,411.8, which aligns with a key support zone and broader trendline confluence.

📊 Key Levels:

Resistance: 18,872.1 (ideal reversal area)

Target Support: 17,411.8

⚠️ Alternative Scenario: A strong breakout and consolidation above the channel could invalidate the bearish setup and suggest a continuation to the upside.

💡 Conclusion: This move would fit well within a broader corrective pattern, offering a technical pullback before any potential continuation. I’ll be watching the open closely for confirmation.

💼 Trade Idea:
🔹 Strategy: Short from resistance
🔹 Suggested Entry: 18,850 – 18,880 (potential gap zone and upper channel resistance)
🔹 Stop Loss: Above 18,920 (outside channel and above recent highs)
🔹 Take Profit: 17,500 – 17,450 (key support zone / technical target)
🔹 Risk/Reward Approximation: 1:4

🧠 Wait for price action confirmation (rejection, bearish engulfing candle, or intraday structure break before entering).

Apr 13

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