US10Y
Yields on the US 10-year Treasury rose close to 3bps to 4.06% on Friday, holding just above the 5-month lows hit in the prior session, as markets grew increasingly confident the Fed will resume rate cuts next week.
Market participants are currently anticipating the equivalent of two to three quarter-point cuts by year-end, while some participants are wagering on a larger half-point move next week.
What Can We Expect Going Forward:
- Unusually High Volatility
- High Probability Liquidity Sweep
- Yields Catch Retail Offside
Areas Of Interest:
- Short-Term Draw To Weekly Buyside @ 4.103%
- Potential To Reach Up Into 4.151% Equilibrium Before or 30 Mins After Announcement
- Long-Term Sellside Draw Through 3.996%, Targeting 3.987% - 3.822% HTF Discount Inefficiency
(Assuming Rates Drop .25 - .50 Basis Points)
10-Year T-Note:
What To Expect Going Forward:
- High Probability For BISI Inefficiencies To Fill
- High Volatility Throughout The Week
- Potential For A Stop Raid
Areas Of Interest:
- 31st Mar 25, NWOG Discount @ 113'00'0
- 112'30'0 BISI Low
- 112'29'5 - 112'26'0 Weekly Volume Imbalance
Yields on the US 10-year Treasury rose close to 3bps to 4.06% on Friday, holding just above the 5-month lows hit in the prior session, as markets grew increasingly confident the Fed will resume rate cuts next week.
Market participants are currently anticipating the equivalent of two to three quarter-point cuts by year-end, while some participants are wagering on a larger half-point move next week.
What Can We Expect Going Forward:
- Unusually High Volatility
- High Probability Liquidity Sweep
- Yields Catch Retail Offside
Areas Of Interest:
- Short-Term Draw To Weekly Buyside @ 4.103%
- Potential To Reach Up Into 4.151% Equilibrium Before or 30 Mins After Announcement
- Long-Term Sellside Draw Through 3.996%, Targeting 3.987% - 3.822% HTF Discount Inefficiency
(Assuming Rates Drop .25 - .50 Basis Points)
10-Year T-Note:
What To Expect Going Forward:
- High Probability For BISI Inefficiencies To Fill
- High Volatility Throughout The Week
- Potential For A Stop Raid
Areas Of Interest:
- 31st Mar 25, NWOG Discount @ 113'00'0
- 112'30'0 BISI Low
- 112'29'5 - 112'26'0 Weekly Volume Imbalance
Trade active
Rate announcement will be coming out today and it seems like the market has priced in a 95% chance of a rate cut.
From the beginning of the week, we have seen the decline of US10Y and i believe we still have some room to go with 3.987% - 3.822% weekly imbalance the next draw on liquidity
Note
4.203% 31st Mar 2025, NWOG Close Was Traded To Before Imminent Reversal.
Short-Term, Low Hanging Fruit Retracement Target Of 4.172% In The Caeds Before Seeing A Rollover
UK, London
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
UK, London
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.