US 30 INDEX 11 SEPTEMBER 2025 TRADE IDEA

The US30 is currently trading near the top of an ascending channel, showing signs of exhaustion after a strong bullish run since April. Price is struggling to hold above the 45,500 area, suggesting the possibility of a pullback as liquidity builds up beneath recent higher lows. From a Smart Money Concepts perspective, the market structure remains bullish on higher timeframes, but with equal lows and inefficiencies below, a corrective move is likely. A clean break of the channel support could trigger a retracement toward key demand zones around 45,015, 44,141, and possibly deeper into 43,315–43,260, where institutional buyers may re-enter for continuation to the upside. Fundamentally, the short-term outlook is cautious, as traders await fresh US inflation and labor market data; softer economic releases would strengthen the case for Fed rate cuts later in 2025, which supports equities, while stronger-than-expected figures could put pressure on risk assets and fuel a temporary correction. Overall, the directional bias for the week is leaning bearish in the short term as price tests the upper channel, with expectations of a corrective dip into demand before resuming the broader bullish trend.