Key Drivers for S&P 500
Government shutdown risk: With no deal in sight and a 79% market-implied probability of a shutdown tomorrow, headline risk is elevated. Historically, most shutdowns have been short, but lingering political uncertainty could weigh on sentiment.
Rates & bonds: A global bond rally (10yr USTs -3.6bps) supported equities, particularly rate-sensitive and cyclical sectors. Lower yields are helping housing-linked names, as shown by the strong pending home sales data.
Commodities: Oil’s sharp decline (-3.45%, biggest drop since June) reduced inflation concerns and eased pressure on equities.
Sector performance: Gains were broad-based; cyclical sectors and construction materials led, while tech (NASDAQ +0.48%, Mag 7 +0.37%) outperformed. Equal-weighted S&P also rose (+0.32%), confirming breadth.
Safe haven demand: Gold’s rally highlights investor caution despite equity gains—suggesting hedging activity alongside risk-on moves.
S&P 500 Trading Takeaway
Equities remain resilient, closing near record highs with support from falling yields and softer oil prices. However, government shutdown risks and political uncertainty could cap upside near term. Expect headline-driven volatility with cyclical and tech sectors best positioned to extend gains if yields stay contained.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 6686
Resistance Level 2: 6710
Resistance Level 3: 6750
Support Level 1: 6600
Support Level 2: 6580
Support Level 3: 6556
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Government shutdown risk: With no deal in sight and a 79% market-implied probability of a shutdown tomorrow, headline risk is elevated. Historically, most shutdowns have been short, but lingering political uncertainty could weigh on sentiment.
Rates & bonds: A global bond rally (10yr USTs -3.6bps) supported equities, particularly rate-sensitive and cyclical sectors. Lower yields are helping housing-linked names, as shown by the strong pending home sales data.
Commodities: Oil’s sharp decline (-3.45%, biggest drop since June) reduced inflation concerns and eased pressure on equities.
Sector performance: Gains were broad-based; cyclical sectors and construction materials led, while tech (NASDAQ +0.48%, Mag 7 +0.37%) outperformed. Equal-weighted S&P also rose (+0.32%), confirming breadth.
Safe haven demand: Gold’s rally highlights investor caution despite equity gains—suggesting hedging activity alongside risk-on moves.
S&P 500 Trading Takeaway
Equities remain resilient, closing near record highs with support from falling yields and softer oil prices. However, government shutdown risks and political uncertainty could cap upside near term. Expect headline-driven volatility with cyclical and tech sectors best positioned to extend gains if yields stay contained.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 6686
Resistance Level 2: 6710
Resistance Level 3: 6750
Support Level 1: 6600
Support Level 2: 6580
Support Level 3: 6556
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.