VIX The Calm Before the Next Wave of Volatility! Recession Risks

After last week’s sharp selloff across equities and crypto, followed by a swift recovery on Monday, many traders are once again lulled into a sense of comfort. But beneath the surface, volatility is quietly building — and the VIX is starting to tell the story.

From Panic to Complacency — Too Fast
Friday’s market crash revealed how fragile sentiment still is. We saw broad-based liquidations, risk-off flows, and a short spike in volatility as traders scrambled for protection. Then, as if nothing happened, Monday brought a sharp rebound — driven by short-covering, dip-buying algos, and a belief that the correction was “overdone.”

Geopolitical Flashpoints: U.S.-China Tensions
The ongoing conflict between the U.S. and China over critical metals exports has intensified. China controls a large portion of rare earth metals, essential for electronics, batteries, and defense technology. Recent U.S. threats to impose sanctions or tariffs on key exports, coupled with potential Chinese retaliatory measures, have created uncertainty for supply chains.
Markets hate uncertainty. Every news cycle mentioning trade escalation acts like a volatility catalyst, as investors hedge against unexpected economic shocks. This alone can drive the VIX higher, even if the S&P 500 has short-term rallies.

Trump Tariff Threats and Market Psychology
Adding fuel to the fire, former President Trump has repeatedly hinted at renewed tariff measures. While the headlines may seem political theater, history shows that even the anticipation of tariffs can disrupt equities and spark short-term volatility spikes.
Friday’s selloff can be partially attributed to traders pricing in these geopolitical and policy risks, which are not reflected in earnings reports or fundamentals — making hedging through VIX-linked products increasingly attractive.

Earnings and Economic Signals
Beyond geopolitics, the earnings season will likely reveal weak spots across sectors. Companies exposed to global supply chains, tech hardware, and industrials may report margins under pressure. This combination — disappointing earnings and global trade uncertainty — often precedes volatility expansions.
Historical patterns show that VIX rises ahead of earnings dispersion and macro shocks, as investors scramble for protection against downside surprises.

Potential upside target: 25+ if earnings disappoint and SPX breaks below $6000