VIX CBOE Volatility Index
VIX for a blowout Another VIX post which have been received well in the past.
SPX is due for a huge correction and I think this will begin today, alongside all other major indices.
We see a Cup & Handle formation in the making and I believe that this is soon to be confirmed.
It is also resting on a historical trend line as well as various other resistance related metrics.
Target is very conservative with a lot of room to go past the highs in August. Re asses as this moves.
VIX Will Go Lower! Short!
Here is our detailed technical review for VIX.
Time Frame: 1h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 21.94.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 20.13.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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Using VIX futures to manage equity risk over the US Election One-way traders can look at expected volatility and movement in the S&P500 over the US election volatility is by looking at the premium or the differential that VIX October futures hold over VIX November futures.
Because the VIX index takes in a series of S&P500 options strikes that blend to create a 30-day implied volatility, the October VIX futures essentially looks at S&P500 volatility over the November US election.
Therefore, the higher the premium for VIX October futures over November futures, the greater demand for volatility over the election and the greater the implied movement in US equity markets.
This can be useful for traders who look at event risk and consider the propensity and extent of movement, and whether they want to hold exposures over that risk.
The code in TradingView to use is - VXV2024-CBOE:VXX2024
US Inflation, Earnings Season Kickoff, Markets on EdgeS&P has failed to make all-time highs
Dow has failed to make all-time highs
Nasdaq has failed to make any new highs
Russell has failed to make any new highs
Oil rips on Middle East escalations
Dollar rips on technical support and bear trap play. Dollar is a big component to the stock markets edging higher for the remainder of the year (e.g. dollar strong = market weak, dollar weak = market strong)
I'm keeping it very simple and staying patient for any "dip" opportunities on indexes, stocks, and watchlist items
I still like Gold, Silver, Bitcoin long as well - again, patient on price action and entries
Major News this week
-US CPI (MoM, YoY, Core and Reg CPI)
-Earnings Season Kickoff - DPZ, DAL, WFC, JPM, BLK and others
Thanks for watching!!!
Q4 Kickoff - US down, VIX Up, Oil Drama, China RipQuick video recap to highlight what's the latest and greatest in the markets.
Oct 1 - Happy Q4
US Big Tech in "big red" today
US Energy in "big green" today - thanks for a wild bid on USOIL
China continues to rip "green" and it's playing catchup quickly
US will have to deal with employment news, inflation news, earnings news, all before the US Election and Nov 7 FOMC Rate Decision (expecting another 25 bps cut)
Major levels to the downside if there's a US market pullback, FOMC lows, gap fills, and up trendline levels (50 period SMA, 100 period SMA, 200 period SMA) but we'll see
Stay frosty out there :)
Thanks for watching!!!
VIX Will Go UP! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
VIX made a retest of
The horizontal support
Level of 14.80$ and then
Broke out of the narrowing
Wedge pattern so we are
Bullish biased and we will
Be expecting a further
Bullish move up
Buy!
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Check out other forecasts below too!
Bitcoin Next Stop 68K!Traders,
In this video:
00:00 - Housekeeping. Thank you all for the polling responses. Greatly appreciated and helps determine site direction tremendously. Quite a few site changes have already been implemented. I will discuss these as well as added new features, services, and what my new indicator system is showing us.
00:08 - The weekly technical analysis and price trajectory for the next few weeks
S&P500 This rally isn't even halfway there!Last time we plotted the S&P500 index (SPX) against the Volatility Index (VIX) was almost a year ago (November 07 2023, see chart below) and that helped as catch a more than +20% rise:
This time, the two assets who are on a negative correlation don't trade on exactly opposite patterns. The S&P500 has been trading within a Channel Up for almost 1 year (since the October 30 2023 Low), while VIX is on a (wide) range with a clear Support Zone and peaks within a 22.00 - 24.00 Resistance Zone, with the exception of the early August rise that spiked above it (recession fears).
Naturally, VIX's spikes and rejections (red circles) are SPX's bottoms and reversals (green circles). The blue circles that are bottoms for VIX inside its Support Zone are mid rally consolidations on the S&P500. This indicates that even when the Volatility bottoms and starts rising, the market is still in euphoria and it takes another half rally before it realizes that an aggressive volatility spike is coming.
This can be particularly helpful in determining how long we still have to keep buying. Based on VIX's current position (ellipse shape), we are on the consolidation phase before the Support Zone test. Which means that we aren't even halfway through SPX's Bullish Leg.
We expect that to be around mid to end of October, just before the U.S. elections to come up as a needed correction. As a result, we are expecting an end-of-year price at around 6200.
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High Beta Bear | HIBS | Long at $22.00 (September Only)Historically, September is one of the worst performing months in the stock market. A hedge against my bets for this month is to buy shares of Direxion Daily S&P 500 High Beta Bear 3X AMEX:HIBS as a volatility play. The index provider selects 100 securities from the S&P 500 Index that have exhibited the highest sensitivity to market movements, or “beta,” over the past 12 months based on the securities’ daily price changes. This isn't "buy and hold" play, whatsoever - you'll loose. It's a short duration hedge using seasonality odds that *may* be in my favor (i.e., September sucks)
Target #1 = $24.85
Target #2 = $26.00
Target #3 = $28.00+
A stop exists below $20.00.
VIX BULLISH BIAS RIGHT NOW| LONG
Hello, Friends!
VIX downtrend evident from the last 1W red candle makes longs trades more risky, but the current set-up targeting 22.04 area still presents a good opportunity for us to buy the pair because the support line is nearby and the BB lower band is close which indicates the oversold state of the VIX pair.
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US Jobs Disappoint - Inflation on DeckThe "September Effect" is in full bloom as the markets are down 4-5% from September's first trading week.
10 year average for September is -.9%
70 year average for September is -.7%
We may see high volatility all over again with Aug 5 lows being threatened, or we may see the risk off tone has been front loaded and next week is all about inflation with US CPI/PPI to potentially fend off more selling with improvements in the inflation trends (e.g. lower inflation = better for market sentiment).
This video is a bit longer, but I appreciate you checking it out and watching. Once we're through inflation news, it's all about the FED on Sep 18, then more employment/inflation news, then election. Those are major catalysts to posture us for the remainder of the year.
Long-term investors the game is simple
Short-term investors are all over the place
Profits and Losses happen, just don't do anything silly.
Enjoy the weekend!!!
Market 101:From the Drama King VIX to the Steady Eddie UtilitiesVolatility Index (VIX) - The Drama King
Let’s kick things off with the Volatility Index, aka the market’s drama king. It’s like that one friend who always makes a big deal out of nothing—spiking dramatically whenever the market so much as sneezes. Recently, it shot up faster than a caffeine-fueled trader on Monday morning, but now it’s calming down a bit, hovering around 20.73. Keep an eye on this guy—he’s always a sign of market anxiety like I said, the the fear gauge. If he starts climbing again, it might be time to batten down the hatches.
Utilities Sector (XLU) - The Steady Eddie
Moving on to the Utilities sector, which is the market’s equivalent of your reliable, always-on-time friend. XLU has been climbing steadily, but just like every other reliable person, it needs a break sometimes. It’s currently chilling around 76.20, looking like it’s taking a well-deserved breather. Nothing too exciting here, but that’s exactly what you want from Utilities—slow and steady wins the race.
ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) - The Wild Child
Now, let’s talk about ARKK—Cathie Wood’s wild child. This chart is like a rollercoaster at an amusement park: up, down, up, down, and sometimes you’re not sure if you should scream or cheer. After some wild moves, ARKK is sitting around 42.98, but don’t be surprised if it decides to take another loop-de-loop soon. Just remember to strap in and hold on tight.
Technology Sector (XLK) - The Overachiever
Next up, the Technology sector, which has been the market’s overachiever for quite some time. XLK had been climbing like it’s trying to win the market’s gold star, but recently it’s hit a bit of a speed bump, pulling back to 210.28. No worries though—this sector is like that student who’s always doing extra credit. It’ll likely bounce back in no time, probably while giving the rest of the market a lesson in resilience.
Consumer Discretionary Sector (XLY) - The Big Spender
Finally, we’ve got the Consumer Discretionary sector, which is the market’s big spender. XLY has been on a shopping spree, but it looks like it might be hitting the credit limit soon. The chart shows some clear support around 184.61, but if it breaks below this, we might see some belt-tightening ahead. Keep an eye on it—everyone loves a spender until the bill comes due.
Summary: From the dramatic spikes of the VIX to the steady climb of Utilities, each of these charts has its own personality. Whether you’re dealing with the rollercoaster that is ARKK or the disciplined overachiever in Technology, there’s always something to learn from the market’s diverse cast of characters. Stay sharp, keep your sense of humour and energy, and remember: in the markets, as in life, it’s all about balance.