Indian refineries are still incentivized to buy Russian Urals oil, says Commerzbank Research's Carsten Fritsch. President Trump inflicted stiff tariffs on New Delhi--including a 25% levy for its purchases of Russian oil--but Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi appears unwilling to bow to U.S. pressure. Meanwhile, the Kremlin cut the price of its oil in order to keep Indian customers. "This oil is being offered at a discount of $3-$4 per barrel compared to Brent for cargoes loaded at the end of September and in October," Fritsch says, citing unnamed sources. "By comparison, Indian refineries recently had to pay a premium of $3 over Brent for U.S. oil."
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