Policy-driven Long Position Analysis

Nov 30

(1) Divergence of monetary policies in developed economies supports gold valuation. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has declined from its peak, but "data shortage leading to cautious policy" is a short-term disturbance. The core contradiction of weak employment and economic stagnation remains unchanged, and the long-term easing direction is clear. More importantly, the probability of the Bank of England cutting interest rates in December has significantly increased. Bailey's statement suggests that "the decline in inflation will open the door for rate cuts", and the Bank of Japan maintaining a 0.50% interest rate unchanged and continuing its dovish stance have led to a sell-off of the yen, further highlighting the currency hedging value of gold. This "US and Europe waiting and watching, UK and Japan being more accommodative" divergence pattern weakens the upward momentum of the US dollar index, providing valuation support for gold.
(2) Escalation of geopolitical policy conflicts strengthens the risk premium. The geopolitical policy game in the Middle East continues to escalate, with the frequency of friction along the Lebanese border increasing by 30% month-on-month. The expectation of Hezbollah retaliation and the security risk of Iran's nuclear facilities form a dual threat. Such geopolitical policy conflicts not only directly stimulate the demand for hedging but also indirectly push up inflation expectations through disruptions to energy supply. As gold is a "anti-inflation + hedging" dual attribute asset, it becomes the optimal choice in periods of policy uncertainty. Historical data shows that during the period of geopolitical policy upheaval, the risk premium of gold can persist for 1-2 weeks, and the correction amplitude is usually no more than 3%.
(3) Policy transmission path: Suppressing the US dollar and reducing holding costs. The combined effect of monetary policy divergence and geopolitical risks makes it difficult for the US dollar index to form an effective breakthrough. The rising expectation of the UK to cut interest rates suppresses the pound, but the drag on the yen from Japan's easing, and the lack of US dollar buying due to the cautious policy of the Fed, have caused the US dollar index to be in a range-bound state. At the same time, the easing policy trend of major global economies has pushed down real interest rates, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold, which aligns with the core pricing logic of "downward real interest rates → gold rises".
Next week's gold trading strategy
buy：4210-4220
tp:4230-4250-4300
sl:4195

Nov 30

Trade active

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