Gold Price Trend and Strategy on September 18th:

I. Core Driver Analysis (News)

Unexpected Hawkishness Pressures Gold Prices: The Fed meeting failed to send dovish signals, and Powell emphasized "upward inflation risks," characterizing the rate cut as "risk management" rather than the beginning of an easing cycle. This shatters the market's fantasy of more radical interest rate cuts and constitutes a short-term negative factor.

Mixed Bullish and Bearish News, Source of Volatility: The meeting also confirmed the baseline expectation of "two more rate cuts this year," limiting the downside for gold prices. The interweaving of bullish and bearish news (inflation risk vs. certainty of interest rate cuts) was the fundamental reason for yesterday's sharp fluctuations.

Future Uncertainty: Significant changes in the FOMC membership are expected, raising questions about the sustainability of Powell's remarks, increasing market uncertainty and potentially maintaining high volatility.

II. Technical Analysis

Daily Chart: Yesterday's high-rise followed by a decline in a medium-sized bearish candlestick pattern clearly indicates strong resistance at the $3,700 level. The market is clearly experiencing profit-taking and a correction pattern.

4-hour level: The 3700-3706 area has initially formed a "double top" suppression pattern, and the market has entered a technical correction stage. This correction could occur in two ways:
Weak Correction: Prices retreat downward to find support (trading space for time).

Strong Correction: Prices fluctuate and consolidate at high levels (trading time for space).

Key Positions:
Upper Resistance: 3700-3706 (double top neckline, bullish watershed)
Lower Support: 3656 → 3648 (short-term correction target) → 3550 (core trend support; a break below would disrupt the short-term uptrend).

III. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy

Overall Approach: Gold prices are in a technical correction cycle in the short term. The primary strategy is to short on rallies, while also monitoring rebound opportunities at key support levels. Before the 3700 mark is effectively broken through, we maintain a bearish view of volatility.

IV. Specific Trading Recommendations
Short Strategy (Primary):
Entry Area: Around $3666-3668
Targets: First target: 3656, second target: 3648
Stop-loss: Recommended above $3675
Long Strategy (Secondary):

Wait-and-See: Focus on stabilization signals at $3648 and the support area below (such as stop-loss candlestick patterns). Consider a light position for short-term rebound opportunities.

Core Defense: As long as the price holds above $3550, the overall upward trend will be maintained. Deep pullbacks present opportunities to enter long positions on dips.

V. Risk Warning

Pay close attention to subsequent speeches by Federal Reserve officials and US economic data (especially inflation data) to determine whether they will disrupt expectations of a rate cut.

If gold prices break through and stabilize at $3706, the short-term correction will be invalidated, and a reassessment of market direction will be necessary.