CBOT Soybean Technicals and Fundamentals (ZS1!) - Dec 05, 2025

Soybeans remain in a corrective phase after confirming a short‑term top, with price likely to probe lower supports unless weather or WASDE headlines flip the sentiment.

🟤 CBOT Soybean Technicals (ZS1!)

- 🧱 **Pattern**: A clear **Head & Shoulders** has formed on the daily chart, with price breaking down toward the neckline zone around **1105–1100¢**, right on a key high‑volume node and 0.382–0.5 retracement of the October–November rally.
- 📉 **Downside levels**: Next supports sit near **1078¢** (0.5 retracement / demand box) and **1055–1060¢** (0.618 + 200‑day area), while immediate resistance is now **1138–1150¢** at the right‑shoulder and failed breakout area.
- 📊 **Momentum**: Daily and 2‑hour **RSI** have rolled over below their signal lines, and the weekly chart is stalling directly under the **200‑week MA** and a thick volume shelf, highlighting heavy supply overhead.

🎯 Trading Bias & Strategy

- 🐻 **Bias**: As long as price holds below roughly **1140–1150¢**, the working assumption is a **corrective leg toward 1080–1060¢**, where multiple supports cluster and responsive buyers are likely to show.
- 📌 **Invalidation**: A strong close back above the right‑shoulder band and weekly supply zone around **1160–1170¢** would negate the topping structure and reopen the path toward the recent swing high near **1170¢+**.
- 🧮 **Tactics**: Favour **sell‑the‑rally** setups into resistance or maintain producer hedges until either (a) a flush into the lower box prints exhaustion signals, or (b) bulls recapture the neckline with decisive volume.

🌎 Fundamentals Right Now

- 💵 **Price context**: Front‑month CBOT soybeans are trading near **1110–1115¢/bu**, softer on the day but still above the autumn lows, mirroring a market that has bounced but is struggling to sustain a trend.
- 🇺🇸 **U.S. balance sheet**: USDA’s latest outlook keeps **2025/26 U.S. ending stocks near 290 mbu**, tight versus recent years, but expectations for the December WASDE lean toward only minor tweaks, not a shock.
- 🌐 **World stocks & demand**: Global 2024/25 soybean ending stocks are projected around **123 MMT**, while U.S. export sales and inspections trail last year, diluting the bullish impact of tighter U.S. carryout.

## 🇧🇷 South America & Weather Risk

- 🌱 **Brazil crop**: Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean crop is still forecast near a **record 175–178 MMT**, but planting has faced a messy mix of **excess rains in central areas** and ongoing concerns in parts of the south, keeping weather risk embedded in prices.
- 🔄 **Climate setup**: Forecasters flag a decent chance of **La Niña‑style patterns** later in the season, which often raise dryness risk in southern Brazil and Argentina and could pressure yields if conditions worsen.
- 🐉 **China demand**: Chinese buying continues but at a more selective pace, and with U.S. export commitments still lagging last year, rallies are likely to meet selling unless South American weather deteriorates or import demand accelerates meaningfully.

Net effect: 🎛️ the market sits in a **range‑trade regime**—technicals lean corrective short term, while fundamentals juggle **record South American potential vs. relatively snug U.S. stocks**, leaving weather and the upcoming WASDE as the key catalysts for any break from the current structure.