EURUSD: The Uptrend Remains Intact – BUY Still Holds the AdvantaHello everyone, below is my view on today’s EURUSD outlook.
From a fundamental perspective, the overall backdrop continues to support the euro. The U.S. dollar remains under pressure as expectations for U.S. interest rates weaken, despite occasional short-term technical rebounds. The key point is that USD strength is not sufficient to reverse the trend, which overall allows EURUSD to maintain its upward momentum.
Looking at the chart, the bullish structure remains very clean and well-respected. Price is trading above the Ichimoku cloud, with the cloud sloping upward, confirming that the primary trend is bullish. The ascending trendline has been respected throughout and has not been broken. After the recent rally, price is now consolidating above the 1.1770 support zone, which signals a healthy market, not distribution.
As long as EURUSD holds above this key base, the probability remains high for price to continue pushing toward the 1.1840 area, as marked on the chart. Any volatility along the way should be seen as technical corrections, not as a change in the overall bullish structure.
Conclusion: EURUSD is still moving in line with its bullish trend. The strategy remains to BUY with the trend, avoid FOMO at the highs, and wait patiently for confirmation that support holds. As long as the structure stays intact, the advantage remains with the buyers — and that is always the side worth aligning with.
Technical Analysis
USDJPY Approaches Key Sell Zone at 156.60!!Hey Traders,
In today’s trading session, we’re closely watching USDJPY for a potential selling opportunity around the 156.600 zone.
From a technical perspective, the pair remains in a clear downtrend. Price is currently in a corrective rebound, retracing toward a key trendline and support/resistance confluence near 156.600—an area that could attract renewed selling pressure if the broader bearish structure holds.
This zone is critical: rejection here would reinforce the downside bias and open the door for trend continuation lower.
Waiting for confirmation and price reaction at the level before engaging.
Trade safe,
Joe
XAUUSD — The Bullish Trend Continues to Lead the MarketGold is closing out 2025 in an exceptionally strong position. Breaking above the 4,500 USD/oz mark for the first time is not just a technical milestone—it signals a fundamental shift in how global capital views gold. A gain of over 70% for the year, the strongest since 1979, confirms that this move is no longer a short-term rally, but the result of deep structural changes in the macroeconomic and monetary landscape.
On the chart, the bullish structure remains clearly intact. Price is trading within a rising channel, holding firmly above the Ichimoku cloud and the main trendline, showing that buyers continue to dominate. After the strong breakout, gold is consolidating above the 4,460 level—a key support zone that serves both as a technical base and a psychological balance point. The shallow pullbacks that fail to break this base reflect active buying rather than distribution.
In the near term, the most reasonable scenario is for gold to hold above 4,460 and extend toward the 4,570 area, where supply may be tested again. Any short-term volatility should be viewed as healthy consolidation within the broader uptrend, as long as the current support zone remains intact.
BTC’s OCD means EMA by NYEWe all know the market has a little OCD. Certain levels it just has to touch before it’ll allow the next move.
On the monthly BTC chart, that level looks like the 9 EMA — and it’s lining up as a likely “must-tag” into month’s end.
Here’s the key observation:
• The monthly 9 EMA has been sliding down ~$2k–$3k per month.
• It’s already dropped from just over $100k last month to a little over ~$98k this month.
• Meanwhile, this month’s high / top wick area is ~94,500.
So right now there’s a gap: 9 EMA above, price wick below.
For the 9 EMA to “touch” the top of this month’s candle (~94,500), one of two things has to happen:
1. EMA drops to price (hard), or
2. Price rises to EMA (much easier).
To get the EMA to drop several thousand more this month, BTC would need a major dump (think the kind of move that drags the average down hard — i.e., ugly). That’s possible, but it’s the less probable path compared to a tag from price.
I built a simple little calculator/tool on my chart that estimates what price would need to do for an EMA tag — and based on that, the cleaner path is BTC pushing higher into month-end to meet the 9 EMA, then potentially setting up the next move (including a possible January fade).
We’re already in the final week of the month, and the tape is starting to look like that “EMA magnet” move could be underway.
Bias: Looking for a long into the 9 EMA tag into year-end — with eyes open for a potential January reversal setup after the touch.
Merry Christmas — consider it my gift to the chart watchers 🎁
BTCUSD Below a Downtrend Line: Don’t Rush to Trust the BounceBTCUSD is still trading in a bearish-leaning environment , as neither the news backdrop nor the technical structure supports a clear bullish reversal yet. Profit-taking from large players, combined with cautious year-end sentiment, means recent Bitcoin rebounds are more technical in nature rather than the start of a new uptrend. In a thin-liquidity environment, the market tends to favor selling rallies instead of chasing higher prices.
On the chart, price remains below the descending trendline and capped by the Ichimoku cloud, confirming that sellers continue to control the primary trend. Upside attempts have been shallow and quickly sold into, reflecting a lack of conviction from buyers. The 89,500 area stands out as a key resistance zone, where price has tested multiple times without a decisive breakout.
In the short term, the most reasonable scenario is for BTC to rebound into resistance and then weaken, before revisiting support around 86,800. A clean break below this level could open the door for further downside extension. Conversely, only a strong breakout and sustained hold above 89,500–90,000 would truly invalidate the current bearish structure.
(USOIL) 2H – Bullish Continuation After Trend ReversalThis 2-hour chart of WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) shows a clear transition from a prior downtrend into a structured bullish recovery. After forming a base near the mid-$55 area, price breaks structure (BOS) and establishes a steady uptrend, guided by an ascending channel.
The Ichimoku Cloud supports the bullish bias, with price trading above the cloud and the cloud turning positive. A clean pullback into a demand zone around 57.0–57.5 aligns with previous consolidation and cloud support, suggesting a potential buy-the-dip area.
Price is currently consolidating above a change in structure (CISD), indicating strength. Upside projections highlight two key resistance targets:
1st target: around 59.10
2nd target: near 60.45
As long as price holds above the demand zone and trend channel support, the bullish continuation scenario remains valid.
A good gold trade doesn’t need to be earlyIn my view, a good gold trade doesn’t need to be early.
Gold never lacks opportunities — but the market seriously lacks patience.
Anyone who trades XAUUSD knows:
It loves to sweep SL before the real trend begins
It prefers to retest zones more than once
It creates more fake breaks than my end-of-year resolutions
So entering early isn’t always wrong — it’s just usually unnecessary.
A beautiful trade is not the fastest trade
A beautiful trade is one where you:
Don’t FOMO
Don’t guess
Don’t enter while price is still shaking out stops
Enter when the chart finally starts telling a clear story, even if that story appears a few candles later
Sometimes waiting for 1–2 confirmation candles gives you:
A more confident entry
A safer SL that’s less likely to be hunted
A lighter mindset
And most importantly: placing a trade without feeling like you're gambling
The real story behind a “worth-it” gold entry
Price touches zone once → no rush.
Touches twice → still chill.
Touches the third time + closes a clean rejection candle + structure intact → this is the moment to enter, not early, but comfortable.
3 simple reminders, nothing too philosophical
Being one step late on the chart is better than being one step late in your account
Price touching a zone is just a greeting — confirmation is the real invitation
A good trade is one that doesn’t make you doubt yourself
Wishing you more comfortable, smooth, and effective entries.
AUDUSD Pullback Meets Trend Support as USD Headwinds Build!!Hey Traders,
In the coming week, we are monitoring AUDUSD for a potential buying opportunity around the 0.66400 zone.
From a technical perspective, the pair remains in a clear uptrend and is currently in a corrective phase, with price retracing toward a key confluence area around 0.66400, where trend support and a former support/resistance zone intersect.
On the macro side, the US Dollar continues to face growing headwinds. Recent data has reinforced signs of cooling momentum in the US economy, keeping the pressure on the Fed. While December is largely priced, January’s FOMC meeting is increasingly in focus, with current data suggesting that a rate cut could come back into play should economic softness persist. This backdrop favors continued USD weakness, supporting higher-beta currencies such as the Australian dollar.
A constructive reaction around 0.66400 would keep the broader bullish structure intact and open the door for continuation toward recent highs.
Wishing everyone a Merry Christmas and a safe trading week ahead 🎄
Trade safe,
Joe
SILVER - Record High $72.70Executive Summary
Silver just hit an ALL-TIME HIGH of $72.70 on December 24, 2025, capping off a historic year that has seen the precious metal surge +148.54% YTD - outperforming gold's impressive +70% gain. Currently trading at $71.80, silver is riding a powerful ascending channel on the 4H timeframe with no signs of slowing down. Safe-haven demand, Fed rate cut expectations, inclusion on the U.S. critical minerals list, and rising industrial use have created a perfect storm for silver bulls.
BIAS: BULLISH - Strong Uptrend Intact
This is one of the most bullish setups I've seen. +148% YTD, record highs, ascending channel intact, and technicals screaming "BUY." The trend is your friend.
Current Market Context - December 24, 2025
Silver is having a historic year:
Current Price: $71.8050 (+0.50% on the day)
Day's Range: $70.2124 - $72.693
52-Week Range: $28.3390 - $72.693
ALL-TIME HIGH: $72.70 (hit today)
Technical Rating: BUY
Performance Metrics - ALL GREEN (HISTORIC):
1 Week: +12.68%
1 Month: +43.50%
3 Months: +63.61%
6 Months: +96.26%
YTD: +148.54%
1 Year: +142.28%
This is the best performing major asset of 2025. Silver has more than doubled from its 52-week low of $28.34.
THE BIG STORY - Silver Outshines Gold in Historic Rally
Record-Breaking Performance
Silver has surged more than 150% year-to-date, significantly outpacing gold's impressive 70%+ gain. This is gold's biggest annual gain since 1979, and silver is beating it handily.
Key milestones:
ALL-TIME HIGH: $72.70 (December 24, 2025)
Previous record broken multiple times this month
Up 143.56% from 52-week low of $28.94
Up 142.08% from 2025 low of $29.116 (April 4)
Month-to-date: +24.87%
Three consecutive winning sessions
Largest 3-day gain: +9.12% ($5.893)
Why Silver Is Outperforming Gold
Strong investment demand
Inclusion on U.S. critical minerals list
Rising industrial use (solar panels, electronics, EVs)
Tighter supply dynamics
Rotation from gold investment demand
Safe-haven appeal in uncertain times
FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERS - The Perfect Storm
1. Safe-Haven Demand
Geopolitical tensions driving investors to precious metals
U.S. President Trump calling for regime change in Venezuela
Global uncertainty supporting haven assets
Investors flocking to tangible assets
2. Fed Rate Cut Expectations
Markets pricing in two rate cuts for 2026
Non-yielding assets like silver thrive in low-rate environments
Trump wants next Fed chairman to lower rates
Falling U.S. dollar supporting precious metals
Interest rates ticking lower
3. Industrial Demand Surge
Silver added to U.S. critical minerals list
Solar panel production driving demand
Electric vehicle growth increasing silver usage
Electronics and technology applications expanding
Industrial use creating structural demand
4. Supply Constraints
Tight mine supply globally
Limited new production coming online
Inventory drawdowns
Supply unable to keep pace with demand
5. Broader Precious Metals Rally
Gold broke above $4,500 for first time
Platinum up ~160% YTD
Palladium up ~100% YTD
Copper and base metals climbing
Entire commodities complex in bull mode
Expert Analysis
Fawad Razaqzada (City Index/FOREX.com):
"The lack of any bearish factors and strong momentum, all backed by solid fundamentals, which include continued central bank buying, a falling U.S. dollar and some level of haven demand" is supporting precious metals.
Societe Generale Analysts:
"The risk of a major drop in the gold price would seem largely linked to a slowing of outright gold buying, such as by emerging market central banks. Barring such an event, investor positions suggest that the extraordinary surge in gold prices is likely to continue."
Gold target: $5,000/oz by end-2026 (Societe Generale)
ADM Investor Services:
"With the dollar weakening, interest rates ticking lower, and the U.S. President calling for regime change in Venezuela the bull camp has a plethora of bullish themes."
Technical Structure Analysis
Price Action Overview - 4 Hour Timeframe
The chart shows a textbook bullish structure:
Ascending Channel Pattern:
Clear ascending channel established
Lower trendline (support) rising from ~$58 area
Upper trendline (resistance) at ~$73-74 area
Price respecting channel boundaries well
Midline (dashed) providing dynamic support/resistance
Higher highs and higher lows throughout
Recent Price Action:
Strong rally from channel bottom
Price currently near upper channel (~$71.80)
Recent pullback found support at midline
Recovery to new highs
Momentum remains strong
No signs of channel breakdown
Key Observations:
Price at all-time high territory
Channel intact and well-defined
Trend structure extremely bullish
Pullbacks being bought aggressively
Volume supporting the move
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Levels:
$72.693 - Day's high / immediate resistance
$72.70 - ALL-TIME HIGH
$73.00 - Psychological level
$74.00-$75.00 - Upper channel resistance
$80.00 - Extended bullish target
$100.00 - Major psychological target (analyst projections)
Support Levels:
$71.00 - Immediate support
$70.00 - Psychological support / recent breakout level
$68.00-$69.00 - Channel midline support
$65.00-$66.00 - Secondary support
$62.00-$63.00 - Channel bottom support
$58.00-$60.00 - Major support zone
Channel Analysis
Channel width: approximately $10-12
Channel slope: strongly bullish (steep angle)
Current position: Near upper channel
Midline: ~$68-69 area (dynamic support)
Channel bottom: ~$62-63 area (strong support)
Channel top: ~$73-74 area (resistance)
Moving Average Analysis
Price trading well above all major moving averages
All MAs sloping sharply upward
Golden cross patterns on multiple timeframes
MAs providing dynamic support on pullbacks
Trend structure extremely bullish
Technical Rating
The TradingView technical gauge shows "BUY" - confirming the bullish bias across multiple indicators.
SCENARIO ANALYSIS
BULLISH SCENARIO - Continuation to New Highs
Trigger Conditions:
Price breaks above $73.00 with volume
Channel breakout to upside
Gold continues rally toward $5,000
Fed signals more rate cuts
Dollar weakness continues
Price Targets if Bullish:
Target 1: $73.00-$74.00 - Upper channel
Target 2: $75.00-$76.00 - Channel breakout target
Target 3: $80.00 - Extended target
Moon Target: $100.00 (analyst projections for 2026)
Bullish Catalysts:
Record highs attracting momentum buyers
Gold rally continuing ($4,500+, targeting $5,000)
Fed rate cut expectations
Dollar weakness
Safe-haven demand (Venezuela, geopolitics)
Industrial demand (solar, EVs, electronics)
Critical minerals list inclusion
Supply constraints
Entire precious metals complex in bull mode
BEARISH SCENARIO - Pullback Within Channel
Trigger Conditions:
Rejection at upper channel ($73-74)
Profit-taking after massive rally
Dollar strength
Fed hawkish surprise
Risk-on rotation out of safe havens
Price Targets if Bearish:
Target 1: $70.00 - Psychological support
Target 2: $68.00-$69.00 - Channel midline
Target 3: $65.00-$66.00 - Secondary support
Extended: $62.00-$63.00 - Channel bottom
Bearish Risks:
Overbought conditions after +148% YTD
Near upper channel (potential rejection)
Profit-taking at record highs
Holiday thin volumes
Potential dollar bounce
Fed policy uncertainty
NEUTRAL SCENARIO - Consolidation Near Highs
Most likely short-term outcome:
Price consolidates between $70-$73
Digests recent gains
Builds base for next leg higher
Healthy consolidation after massive rally
Channel midline provides support
MY ASSESSMENT - BULLISH
The weight of evidence overwhelmingly favors bulls:
Bullish Factors (Dominant):
+148.54% YTD - Best performing major asset
ALL-TIME HIGH just hit ($72.70)
Ascending channel intact and well-defined
Technical rating: BUY
Outperforming gold significantly
Multiple fundamental drivers aligned
Safe-haven demand strong
Fed rate cuts expected
Industrial demand surging
Supply constraints
Entire precious metals complex bullish
No bearish factors visible (per analysts)
Bearish Factors (Minor):
Near upper channel (potential short-term resistance)
Overbought after massive rally
Holiday thin volumes
Profit-taking risk at record highs
My Stance: BULLISH - Buy Dips
This is one of the strongest trends in any market right now. +148% YTD with no signs of slowing. The fundamentals are aligned, the technicals are bullish, and the channel is intact. Don't fight this trend.
Strategy:
Buy dips to channel midline ($68-69)
Buy dips to $70 psychological support
Target upper channel ($73-74) and beyond
Tight stops below channel support
Don't short this market
Respect the trend - it's massively bullish
Trade Framework
Scenario 1: Breakout Trade Above $73
Entry Conditions:
4H candle closes above $73.00
Volume confirmation
Gold holding above $4,500
Trade Parameters:
Entry: $73.00-$73.50 on confirmed breakout
Stop Loss: $71.00 below recent support
Target 1: $75.00 (Risk-Reward ~1:1)
Target 2: $78.00-$80.00 (Risk-Reward ~1:2.5)
Target 3: $85.00+ (Extended)
Scenario 2: Buy the Dip at Channel Midline
Entry Conditions:
Price pulls back to $68-69 zone
Bullish rejection candle
Channel midline holds
Trade Parameters:
Entry: $68.00-$69.00 at channel midline
Stop Loss: $65.00 below secondary support
Target 1: $71.00-$72.00 (Risk-Reward ~1:1)
Target 2: $73.00-$74.00 (Risk-Reward ~1:1.5)
Target 3: $75.00+ (Extended)
Scenario 3: Buy at $70 Psychological Support
Entry Conditions:
Price tests $70.00 level
Bullish bounce
Volume spike on recovery
Trade Parameters:
Entry: $70.00-$70.50 at psychological support
Stop Loss: $68.00 below midline
Target 1: $72.00-$72.70 (ATH retest)
Target 2: $73.00-$74.00 (upper channel)
Target 3: $75.00+ (Extended)
Risk Management Guidelines
Position sizing: 2-3% max risk per trade
Respect the channel - it's your guide
Don't short this market
Buy dips, don't chase highs
Use channel levels for entries/exits
Scale out at targets
Move stop to breakeven after first target
Holiday volumes may be thin - use appropriate size
Invalidation Levels
Bullish thesis invalidated if:
Price closes below $62 (channel bottom)
Ascending channel breaks down
Gold crashes below $4,000
Dollar surges significantly
Fed signals no more rate cuts
Bearish thesis invalidated if:
Price closes above $75 (channel breakout)
New all-time highs with momentum
Gold breaks $5,000
Industrial demand accelerates further
Conclusion
Silver is having a historic year. With +148.54% YTD gains, it's the best performing major asset of 2025, significantly outpacing gold's impressive +70% rally. The precious metal just hit an ALL-TIME HIGH of $72.70 and shows no signs of slowing down.
The Numbers:
Current Price: $71.8050
ALL-TIME HIGH: $72.70
YTD Performance: +148.54%
1-Year Performance: +142.28%
52-Week Low: $28.34
Technical Rating: BUY
Key Levels:
$72.70 - ALL-TIME HIGH
$73.00-$74.00 - Upper channel resistance
$71.80 - Current price
$70.00 - Psychological support
$68.00-$69.00 - Channel midline
$62.00-$63.00 - Channel bottom (major support)
The Setup:
Silver is in a powerful ascending channel with all fundamentals aligned. Safe-haven demand, Fed rate cuts, industrial demand, and supply constraints have created the perfect storm. The technical rating is "BUY" and the trend is undeniably bullish.
Strategy:
Buy dips to $68-70 support zone
Target $73-74 (upper channel) and $75+
Stops below channel support
Don't fight this trend
Respect the channel
Analysts are targeting gold at $5,000 by end-2026. If silver continues to outperform, $100 silver is not out of the question.
A Christmas Setup: Is the Breakout Gift Coming?ETH/USD – 1H | Key Points:
Market State: Range consolidation after a sharp pullback.
Support Zone: ~2,900–2,920 → buyers defending repeatedly.
Resistance Zone: ~3,030–3,060 → strong supply overhead.
Structure: Higher lows forming from support → recovery attempt.
Bias: Neutral → bullish only if price reclaims 3,000+.
Context (Macro / Holiday):
Low Christmas liquidity → slow, choppy price action.
Real momentum likely comes after a clean breakout.
Plan:
Buy reactions at support.
Confirm longs only on break & hold above resistance.
US30 Approaches Key Support at 48,400!Hey Traders,
In the coming week, we are monitoring US30 (Dow Jones) for a potential buying opportunity around the 48,400 zone.
The index remains in a well-defined uptrend and is currently undergoing a healthy corrective pullback. Price is now approaching a key trend support and support/resistance confluence near 48,400, an area that has previously attracted buyers.
If bullish structure remains intact, this zone could act as a base for trend continuation higher. Watching closely for price reaction and confirmation before engaging.
Trade safe,
Joe
EURUSD Pullback Toward 1.178 as Dollar Weakness Builds!Hey Traders,
In today’s trading session, we’re monitoring EURUSD for a potential buying opportunity around the 1.17800 zone.
From a technical standpoint, EURUSD remains in a well-defined uptrend and is currently undergoing a healthy correction, pulling back toward trend support and a key support/resistance confluence at 1.17800. This area has previously attracted strong buyer interest and could act as a launch point for trend continuation.
On the macro side, the US Dollar backdrop remains fragile. Recent developments point toward continued USD weakness, with:
A 25bps Fed rate cut already delivered
Balance sheet expansion resuming, historically bearish for the dollar
Markets increasingly sensitive to incoming US labor market data, which could revive expectations for additional easing ahead
As long as the dollar struggles to regain momentum, the EURUSD upside bias remains intact, with this pullback offering a potential higher-low setup within the broader bullish structure.
Watching closely for price reaction at 1.17800 to confirm buyer participation.
Trade safe,
Joe
Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) when growth stops being randomI am looking at the weekly chart of NBIS and this is no longer about emotions, it is about structure. Price has formed a stable bullish cycle, broke out from a wide base and is now holding above key moving averages. On the weekly timeframe most indicators have already shifted into buy mode, while the market does not look overheated. RSI remains in a neutral bullish zone, momentum is intact, and pullbacks are being absorbed without aggressive selling pressure.
The 50, 100 and 200 week moving averages are starting to align into a bullish configuration, which often signals a transition into a medium term trend. Volume confirms the move. This is not an empty or purely speculative rally, but one supported by growing participation from longer term capital. Technically, this structure suggests trend continuation with potential for new highs as long as the current range is held.
From a fundamental perspective, Nebius has gone through a major transformation over recent years. Company revenue has increased multiple times compared to prior periods, while the income structure has become more diversified. The core contribution now comes from cloud solutions, infrastructure services and technology driven segments that continue to grow even in a challenging macro environment. EBITDA has returned to a positive trend in recent reporting periods, and operational metrics are improving due to cost optimization and a stronger focus on higher margin business lines.
Yes, the company is still in an investment phase and this is not a classic profit here and now story. However, revenue growth rates, business scaling and expansion of core segments provide a clear long term value setup. This is not hype. It is a bet on a technology platform that is only entering its value realization phase.
Tactically, I view NBIS as a growth stock where the market can continue higher without a deep correction as long as the current structure holds. While price remains above key weekly levels and moving averages, the bullish scenario stays valid. This is not a one day idea. It is a trend that is just beginning to form.
Sometimes the market already knows where the money is going, and in those moments it is better to listen to the chart rather than the headlines.
Thin Liquidity, Gold Can Fly: Are You Buying at the Right Level?Hello traders, let’s continue with today’s XAUUSD outlook.
Personally, I believe the primary trend of XAUUSD remains BULLISH , supported by both fundamental news and technical structure . However, in a thin holiday liquidity environment , the market may choose one of two clear scenarios below before confirming its next directional move.
From a news perspective, gold has just printed a record high during the Asian session , driven by rising safe-haven demand amid escalating U.S.–Venezuela geopolitical tensions . With year-end trading volumes remaining light , defensive capital flows tend to amplify price swings, making gold more prone to sharp breakouts or fast pullbacks than usual.
Scenario (1) – Direct continuation higher:
If price holds firmly above the 4,480 area (support zone 1) and buying pressure remains steady, gold could push directly toward the 4,550 target. This is the trend-following scenario, favored when safe-haven sentiment stays dominant and no strong selling pressure appears at current levels.
Scenario (2) – Deeper pullback, then rally:
If the market needs to “cool off”, price may correct toward the 4,400 area (support zone 2). Should this zone be well defended, the pullback would likely be technical in nature, forming a stronger base for the next bullish leg toward 4,550. This scenario often unfolds when RSI eases and buyers step back in at more favorable prices.
Conclusion:
Regardless of which path the market takes, 4,550 remains the key short-term objective. The most important factor is discipline: buy only with confirmation at support, and avoid FOMO during strong holiday-driven volatility.
Note: This is only a trading idea for reference. I’d be happy to hear your views—feel free to share your perspective or leave a comment below.
$SPY & $SPX Scenarios — Friday, Dec 26, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY & SP:SPX Scenarios — Friday, Dec 26, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
• Post-holiday, low-liquidity session: No scheduled macro data — price action driven by flows, positioning, and thin volume.
• Year-end dynamics: Window dressing, tax positioning, and reduced participation can exaggerate moves without real conviction.
📊 Key Data & Events (ET)
• None scheduled
⚠️ Disclaimer: For informational use only — not financial advice.
📌 #SPY #SPX #markets #trading #holiday #yearend
Christmas Calm Before the Breakout – ETH Is Still WaitingKey Points :
Structure: Range / consolidation between support and resistance.
Bias: Neutral → waiting for expansion.
Support Zone: Holding so far, buyers still defending.
Resistance Zone: Major cap; breakout needed to confirm upside.
Liquidity: Thin Christmas liquidity → false moves possible.
Macro Context:
Holiday period = low volume, reduced institutional flow.
No strong macro catalyst → price driven mainly by technical levels.
Trading Note:
Avoid overtrading during Christmas.
Best opportunity comes after the holidays, not during.
SOLUSDT 4hr – Trade idea Price is currently trading inside a range after a strong impulsive move down.
We are seeing multiple fair value gaps below and above, indicating unfinished business on both sides.
Context
Overall structure remains bearish
Price is consolidating near local support
Liquidity has been swept to the downside
Bullish idea
If price holds this support and reclaims the local fair value gap, a move towards the higher timeframe imbalance becomes likely.
Bearish idea
Failure to hold this area could lead to a continuation into the lower fair value gap, completing the downside move.
Are you expecting a range expansion up or further downside first?
MrC
Quiet Christmas range — volatility is being delayed, not cancelChristmas Liquidity Trap – BTC Is Loading the Next Move
BTC/USD – 1H | Key Takeaways:
Market State: High-liquidity range consolidation.
Support Zone: ~86.7k–86.8k → buyers defending well.
Resistance Zone: ~90.3k–90.5k → major supply cap.
Structure: Higher lows forming inside the range → pressure building.
Bias: Neutral → breakout-dependent.
Holiday / Macro Context:
Christmas = thin liquidity, slow flows.
Smart money accumulates quietly inside ranges.
Real expansion often comes after the holiday lull.
Playbook:
Range trade only until breakout.
Bullish continuation only on clean break & hold above 90.5k.
XAUUSD (Gold) : Intraday Structure & Reversal Zone Analysis📊 XAUUSD (Gold) – Intraday Structure & Reversal Zone Analysis (30M)
This chart presents a 30-minute XAUUSD price action analysis, highlighting a clear bullish recovery followed by a potential high-probability reversal zone.
🔍 Market Structure Overview & Technical Analysis
Gold initially showed range-bound behavior with multiple equal highs and lows, indicating liquidity buildup. Price repeatedly tested the same support zone, producing strong rejections (long wicks and impulsive candles), which clearly signaled buyers absorbing sell pressure.
Once liquidity below the range was swept, price reacted sharply upward, confirming a classic liquidity grab → reversal → impulsive move scenario.
🚀 Bullish Expansion Move
After the liquidity sweep, Gold delivered a strong bullish leg, breaking above previous intraday highs with momentum. This impulsive move created a clean bullish structure, suggesting institutional participation rather than random retail buying.
The vertical measurement marked on the chart shows a 130+ point bullish expansion, reinforcing that this was not a weak correction but a strong directional push.
📦 Key Supply / Reversal Zone
The highlighted upper zone (Reversal Zone) represents:
Previous swing high resistance
A premium price area
Potential supply imbalance
Price is currently approaching this zone, where smart money typically looks for:
Profit-taking on longs
Fresh sell-side entries
Confirmation-based reversals
The note “Need Pattern Here” is critical:
👉 No blind selling. A reversal is only valid if price forms a clear bearish pattern, such as:
Bearish engulfing
Double top / failed high
Strong upper wick rejections
Market structure shift (MSS) on lower timeframes
🧠 Trading Psychology (Minds)
At this stage:
Late buyers are emotionally chasing
Smart money waits for confirmation
Patience is key — the best trades come after confirmation, not anticipation
If price rejects the zone strongly, a pullback toward the marked support area is highly probable.
If price breaks and holds above the zone, it invalidates the reversal idea and signals continued bullish strength.
📌 Trading Plan Summary
Bias: Bullish into resistance, cautious near supply
Sell idea: Only after bearish confirmation in the reversal zone
Buy idea: If price breaks and retests above the zone
Risk: Avoid emotional entries inside resistance
⚠️ Final Note
This setup is a reaction-based trade, not a prediction.
Let price show its hand — confirmation over confidence.
📉📈 Trade safe. Manage risk. Let structure lead the way.
USD/JPY 30-M LONG POSITION BASED ANALYSIS CHART SETUP Strong bullish move earlier, then formed a pullback / corrective phase.
Now consolidating above a demand zone around 155.70–155.90.
Short-term structure suggests higher lows, hinting at a possible bullish continuation.
Key Zones
Support (Buy Zone): 155.70 –50
Immediate Resistance: 156.40 – 156.60
Major Resistance / Target: ~157.40 – 157.60
Invalidation / SL Zone: Below 155.50
Bullish while above 155.50
Price is trying to break and hold above the blue consolidation area (~156.00). A successful retest and hold can trigger upside continuation.
Buy Setup Idea
Entry: 155.95 – 156.15 (on bullish candle / retest hold)
Stop Loss: 155.45 – 155.50 (below demand & structure)
Take Profits:
TP1: 156.60
TP2: 157.00
TP3: 157.40 – 157.60 (main target zone)
Gold Is No Longer a Spike — It’s a TrendXAUUSD is maintaining a clear bullish bias, as the fundamental backdrop continues to strongly favor gold. Rising safe-haven demand, expectations of further Fed easing, and a weaker U.S. dollar are helping gold stay at elevated price levels. Gold’s breakout above 4,500 USD/oz and its ~70% gain in 2025 (the strongest since 1979) confirm that this move is no longer a short-term “spike,” but a structurally supported trend driven by long-term capital flows.
On the H4 chart you shared, the uptrend remains dominant, with price trading inside a rising channel and currently consolidating just below the 4,550 supply zone after a strong impulsive move. The 4,470 area is acting as a key base, making pullbacks into this zone healthy corrections for continuation, rather than signs of reversal.
The most reasonable scenario over the next 24 hours is for gold to cool off toward 4,470 to absorb liquidity, then rebound to retest 4,550. Only a clear H4 close below 4,470 would slow the bullish momentum; as long as this level holds, I continue to favor buying pullbacks within the broader uptrend.
DOGE - Descending Channel at $0.127
Executive Summary
COINBASE:DOGEUSD is trading at approximately $0.127 on Christmas Day, down 58% YTD and trapped in a descending channel on the 4H timeframe. The performance metrics are brutal: -60.92% over the past year. However, multiple analysts are pointing to a cycle fractal that suggests DOGE may be in the "golden pocket" for accumulation before a major bull run. The key level to watch is $0.138 - a reclaim above this Fibonacci level could signal the start of a significant rally. Meanwhile, futures trading volume has surged 53,000% to $260 million, and spot DOGE ETFs are boosting demand.
BIAS: NEUTRAL - Bullish Potential with Current Bearish Structure
The chart structure is bearish (descending channel), but the cycle fractal and accumulation signals suggest this could be the calm before the storm. Wait for confirmation above $0.138 before turning bullish.
Current Market Context - December 25, 2025
Dogecoin is at a critical juncture:
Current Price: $0.127 (-1.22% in 24h)
Market Cap: $19.39 billion
52-Week Range (Market Cap): $15.59B - $64.11B
Volume: 590.15M (below 30D average of 1.13B)
Open Interest: $1.51 billion (11.8 billion DOGE)
Rank: #9 by market cap
Performance Metrics - MOSTLY RED:
1 Week: +0.83% (Green)
1 Month: -15.91% (Red)
3 Months: -42.45% (Red)
6 Months: -19.67% (Red)
YTD: -58.30% (Red)
1 Year: -60.92% (Red)
The numbers are ugly. DOGE has lost nearly 60% of its value this year. But is this the bottom?
THE BULL CASE - Cycle Fractal Points to Imminent Rally
The Dogecoin Cycle Fractal
Crypto analyst Cryptollica has identified a cycle fractal that shows DOGE may be at the point before it begins its bull run. The fractal has repeated itself at the macro level with four distinct structural points:
Zone 1 & 2: "Boredom phases" where volatility died and smart money accumulated
Zone 2: Was the launchpad for the massive 2021 parabolic run
Zone 4 (CURRENT): Same rounding-bottom formation playing out
Price is stabilizing and forming a heavy base just like before previous explosions
Key Insight: The analyst states this is the "Golden Pocket" for accumulation. If the fractal plays out as it did in 2020 (Zone 2), the current price action is simply the calm before the storm.
RSI at Historical Support
Weekly RSI at 32 level - acts as historical floor
DOGE has formed a macro bottom every time RSI touched this baseline
RSI has reset to this critical support level
Indicates sellers are exhausted
Momentum is primed to flip
The $0.138 Level - Key to Recovery
Analyst Kevin has identified $0.138 as THE critical level:
Must be reclaimed on 3-day to weekly timeframe closes
Would place DOGE back above macro 0.382 Fibonacci retracement
This Fib level divides bearish and bullish market phases
Also aligns with 200-week Simple Moving Average
A move above would signal long-term buyers regaining control
Next major target after reclaim: $0.46 (liquidity/resistance zone)
Futures Volume Surge - 53,000%
Dogecoin futures trading volume surged 53,000% to $260 million
Driven by Dogecoin ETF activity and derivatives
This surge came before recent price stability
Could be catalyst for upcoming trend reversal
Spot DOGE ETFs launched in late 2025, boosting demand
Analyst Price Targets
Cryptollica: DOGE could rally significantly and possibly exceed $1
Kevin: Next major resistance at $0.46 after $0.138 reclaim
Current resistance targets: $0.148 and $0.196
Support expected in $0.11 range
THE BEAR CASE - Descending Channel Still Intact
Current Technical Structure
The 4H chart shows a clear descending channel:
Lower highs and lower lows dominating
Price trapped between declining trendlines
Channel resistance capping rallies
Channel support providing temporary bounces
No confirmed breakout yet
Bearish structure until proven otherwise
Concerning Metrics
YTD: -58.30% - Massive underperformance
1 Year: -60.92% - Lost more than half its value
Market cap down from $64.11B high to $19.39B
Volume below 30-day average (590M vs 1.13B)
Open interest dropped 4.03% in last 24 hours
Lost crucial $0.13 support level
Market Headwinds
Broader crypto market in risk-off mode
Total crypto market fell below $3 trillion to $2.94 trillion
Fed rate expectations pushing out (rates on hold until April)
Holiday trading with thin liquidity
DOGE utility discussions (sidechains, L2) progressing slowly
Technical Structure Analysis
Price Action Overview - 4 Hour Timeframe
The chart shows a descending channel pattern:
Descending Channel Characteristics:
Upper trendline: Connecting lower highs (resistance)
Lower trendline: Connecting lower lows (support)
Channel slope: Bearish (declining)
Price oscillating between boundaries
Current position: Mid-to-lower channel
Recent Price Action:
Dec 19 surge to $0.134 high
Failed to break channel resistance
Pulled back to current $0.127 level
Now trading in tight range ($0.126-$0.135)
Consolidation setting stage for next move
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Levels:
$0.134-$0.135 - Immediate resistance / recent high
$0.138 - CRITICAL LEVEL (Fibonacci 0.382 + 200-week SMA)
$0.148 - Next resistance target
$0.196 - Secondary resistance
$0.46 - Major liquidity zone (if $0.138 reclaimed)
$1.00 - Analyst moon target
Support Levels:
$0.126 - Immediate support / range bottom
$0.125 - Key support (must hold for bullish setup)
$0.12 - Psychological support
$0.11 - Major support zone
$0.10 - Deep support / psychological
Range Analysis
Current consolidation range:
Range high: $0.135
Range low: $0.126
Range width: ~$0.009 (7%)
Breakout direction will determine next major move
Above $0.138 = Bullish confirmation
Below $0.12 = Bearish continuation
Moving Average Analysis
Price below major moving averages
200-week SMA at ~$0.138 area - key resistance
MAs sloping downward on shorter timeframes
Need to reclaim MAs for trend reversal
Currently bearish MA structure
RSI Analysis
4H RSI at 42 - showing growing buyer interest
Weekly RSI near 32 - historical support level
RSI breakthrough would boost momentum
Target resistance at $0.134 if RSI breaks higher
Oversold conditions on higher timeframes
Bitcoin Correlation - Key Catalyst
Analyst Kevin notes that DOGE's recovery is tied to Bitcoin:
Bitcoin needs to reclaim $88,000-$91,000 range
This would require BTC to rally 2-6% from current levels
BTC strength would support bullish momentum across crypto
Without BTC confirmation, DOGE may continue consolidating
Watch BTC as leading indicator for DOGE direction
SCENARIO ANALYSIS
BULLISH SCENARIO - Breakout Above $0.138
Trigger Conditions:
3-day or weekly close above $0.138
Bitcoin reclaims $88,000-$91,000
RSI breaks above 50 on weekly
Volume surge on breakout
Descending channel breakout confirmed
Price Targets if Bullish:
Target 1: $0.148 - First resistance
Target 2: $0.196 - Secondary resistance
Target 3: $0.46 - Major liquidity zone
Moon Target: $1.00+ (cycle fractal projection)
Bullish Catalysts:
Cycle fractal pointing to bull run
RSI at historical support (32 level)
"Golden Pocket" accumulation zone
Futures volume surge (53,000%)
Spot DOGE ETFs boosting demand
Smart money accumulation phase
Rounding bottom formation
BEARISH SCENARIO - Breakdown Below $0.12
Trigger Conditions:
4H close below $0.12
Bitcoin weakness below $85,000
Volume spike on breakdown
Descending channel continues
Open interest continues declining
Price Targets if Bearish:
Target 1: $0.11 - Major support zone
Target 2: $0.10 - Psychological support
Target 3: $0.08-$0.09 - Extended downside
Bearish Risks:
Descending channel still intact
YTD: -58.30% - Severe underperformance
Lost $0.13 crucial support
Volume below average
Open interest declining
Broader crypto market weakness
Fed rate expectations pushed out
Utility development slow
NEUTRAL SCENARIO - Continued Range Trading
Most likely short-term outcome:
Price continues in $0.126-$0.135 range
Consolidation before next major move
Wait for Bitcoin direction
Wait for $0.138 reclaim or $0.12 breakdown
Holiday trading keeps volatility low
MY ASSESSMENT - NEUTRAL with Bullish Potential
This is a genuinely mixed setup:
Bearish Factors (Current Reality):
Descending channel intact
YTD: -58.30%, 1Y: -60.92%
Below all major moving averages
Lost $0.13 support
Volume declining
Open interest dropping
Bullish Factors (Future Potential):
Cycle fractal pointing to bull run
RSI at historical support
"Golden Pocket" accumulation zone
Futures volume surge 53,000%
Spot ETFs boosting demand
Analysts targeting $0.46 to $1.00+
Rounding bottom forming
My Stance: NEUTRAL - Wait for Confirmation
The current structure is bearish, but the accumulation signals are compelling. This is NOT the time to short, but also not the time to go heavy long without confirmation.
Strategy:
Wait for $0.138 reclaim for bullish confirmation
Or wait for $0.12 breakdown for bearish confirmation
Small accumulation positions acceptable in $0.125-$0.127 zone
Don't chase - let the market show its hand
Watch Bitcoin for direction
Trade Framework
Scenario 1: Bullish Breakout Trade
Entry Conditions:
3-day or weekly close above $0.138
Volume confirmation
Bitcoin above $88,000
Trade Parameters:
Entry: $0.138-$0.142 on confirmed breakout
Stop Loss: $0.125 below recent support
Target 1: $0.148 (Risk-Reward ~1:0.5)
Target 2: $0.196 (Risk-Reward ~1:4)
Target 3: $0.46 (Extended)
Scenario 2: Accumulation in Range
Entry Conditions:
Price tests $0.125-$0.127 support
Bullish rejection candle
RSI holding above 30
Trade Parameters:
Entry: $0.125-$0.127 at range support
Stop Loss: $0.118 below $0.12 psychological
Target 1: $0.134-$0.135 (range high)
Target 2: $0.138 (key Fibonacci level)
Target 3: $0.148+ (if breakout occurs)
Risk-Reward: ~1:1.5 to first target
Scenario 3: Bearish Breakdown Trade
Entry Conditions:
4H close below $0.12
Volume confirmation
Bitcoin weakness
Trade Parameters:
Entry: $0.118-$0.12 on confirmed breakdown
Stop Loss: $0.128 above recent consolidation
Target 1: $0.11 (Risk-Reward ~1:1)
Target 2: $0.10 (Risk-Reward ~1:2)
Target 3: $0.08-$0.09 (Extended)
Risk Management Guidelines
Position sizing: 1-2% max risk per trade
DOGE is highly volatile - use appropriate size
Wait for confirmation before large positions
Respect the descending channel until broken
Watch Bitcoin correlation closely
Holiday trading = thin liquidity
Scale into positions rather than all-in
Take profits at targets
Invalidation Levels
Bullish thesis invalidated if:
Price closes below $0.11
Descending channel breaks down further
Bitcoin crashes below $80,000
Weekly RSI breaks below 25
Bearish thesis invalidated if:
Price closes above $0.138 on weekly
Descending channel breaks to upside
Bitcoin reclaims $91,000
Volume surge on breakout
Conclusion
COINBASE:DOGEUSD is at a critical inflection point. The current structure is bearish with a descending channel and -58% YTD performance. However, multiple analysts are pointing to a cycle fractal that suggests this could be the "golden pocket" for accumulation before a major bull run.
The Numbers:
Current Price: $0.127
YTD Performance: -58.30%
1-Year Performance: -60.92%
Market Cap: $19.39 billion
Key Level: $0.138 (Fibonacci 0.382 + 200-week SMA)
Key Levels:
$0.138 - CRITICAL (reclaim = bullish confirmation)
$0.134-$0.135 - Immediate resistance
$0.127 - Current price
$0.125-$0.126 - Immediate support
$0.12 - Psychological support (breakdown level)
$0.11 - Major support
The Setup:
Dogecoin is consolidating in a descending channel with the cycle fractal suggesting accumulation. The $0.138 level is THE key - a reclaim would signal the start of a potential rally to $0.46 and beyond. Without that confirmation, the bearish structure remains intact.
Strategy:
NEUTRAL stance - wait for confirmation
Small accumulation acceptable at $0.125-$0.127
Bullish above $0.138 (targets $0.148, $0.196, $0.46)
Bearish below $0.12 (targets $0.11, $0.10)
Watch Bitcoin for direction
As analyst Cryptollica says: "Ignore Dogecoin now, chase it later." The spring is loading - patience is required.
ETH Is Not Weak — This Is Smart Money Reloading Before the PUSHETH / USD – 1H
1. Market Structure (What Price Is Really Doing)
ETH has returned precisely into the previous range support zone (~2,900–2,930).
The sell-off did not break structure impulsively — instead, price formed compression + shallow lower wicks, signaling sell-side liquidity absorption.
The recent down move is corrective, not a trend reversal:
Lower highs are short-lived
No strong bearish expansion
Buyers step in immediately at range low
➡️ This is range re-accumulation, not distribution.
2. Key Levels
Primary Support (High-Probability Demand): 2,900 – 2,930
Range High / Resistance: 3,050 – 3,080
Upside Liquidity Target: 3,100 – 3,150
As long as ETH holds above 2,900, bullish structure remains intact.
3. Price PatH
Expected Flow:
Minor dip or sweep below 2,920 (liquidity grab)
Sharp reaction back into range
Expansion toward range high
Break above 3,080 → 3,100+
This is a classic “sell the fear, buy the base” setup inside a higher-timeframe range.
4. Macro & Crypto-Specific Tailwinds
Macro Alignment
USD momentum is weakening as markets price Fed easing in 2025.
Risk assets remain supported → ETH benefits disproportionately vs BTC during rotations.
Crypto-Specific
ETH continues to gain from:
ETF narrative speculation
Reduced net issuance (post-merge supply dynamics)
Capital rotation from BTC into ETH during consolidation phases
➡️ Macro does not support sustained downside here.
🧠 Final Takeaway
ETH is not breaking down — it is reloading at the most logical level.
Structure: Neutral → Bullish
Location: Optimal (range low)
Liquidity: Below price already taken
Bias: Upside continuation toward 3,100+
Unless ETH accepts below 2,880, this remains a buy-the-dip environment, not a short-the-rally one.






















