Recency Bias: Your Brain’s Worst Trade Idea Ever!Let’s face it: your brain is out to sabotage your trading, and recency bias is its weapon of choice. This sneaky psychological gremlin convinces you that your last few trades—good or bad—are all that matter. But spoiler alert: they’re not.
🎲 What is Recency Bias?
Recency bias is your brain’s tendency to overvalue recent events and ignore the bigger picture. Three wins in a row? You’re invincible, right? WRONG. Three losses? Time to ditch your strategy? ALSO WRONG. The market doesn’t care about your streak—it plays the long game, and so should you.
💀 How It Destroys You
1️⃣ Winning Streak Confidence: After a few wins, you start upping your risk like you’re Warren Buffet. Then BAM—one loss wipes you out.
2️⃣ Losing Streak Paralysis: A few losses, and suddenly you’re too scared to pull the trigger, even on solid setups.
3️⃣ Revenge Trading: The currency pair that burned you? Oh, you’ll “get it back,” right? Nope. You’ll just lose more.
🛡️ How to Beat It
1️⃣ Reset Daily: Clear your head before every session. Meditate, walk, scream into a pillow—whatever works.
2️⃣ Stick to Your Plan: Your strategy works because it’s tested, not because your emotions say so.
3️⃣ Journal Everything: Spot your patterns before they wreck you.
4️⃣ Manage Risk: Winning or losing streaks shouldn’t change your position size. Period.
5️⃣ Check Your Ego: The market isn’t out to get you. It doesn’t even know you exist.
🧠 Final Words
Recency bias is a sneaky little troll, but with self-awareness and discipline, you can shut it down. Remember: your last trade doesn’t define you—your consistency does.
Now stop letting your brain gaslight you and go trade like the pro you were meant to be. 🚀
USDCHF
A Simple and Effective Strategy to Outsmart Liquidity HuntingHave you ever encountered a scenario where the price hits your Stop Loss level first, only to then fully reverse and head in the direction of your target profit, ultimately reaching it? If the answer is yes, you’ve most likely fallen victim to what is commonly referred to as a 'liquidity grab'. In other terms, this phenomenon is known as 'stop-loss hunting', and it is an inescapable occurrence within the realm of trading.
But why does it happen? The answer lies in the actions of big market players, such as banks and institutions, who need to fill their large positions. Simply put, for markets to function properly, there must be equilibrium - an equal number of buyers and sellers, a balance between supply and demand. For every buy-back and sell-off you conduct, there must be an opposing party willing to execute the trade with you. This is where brokers come into play, linking both sides of the transaction. When there is an imbalance between buyers and sellers, it leads to market inefficiency, which can result in excess supply or demand, distorting price movements. Market makers help prevent this by ensuring market stability and securing better pricing for executing large orders.
For example, imagine you have analysed the sentiment and opened a SELL trade on USD/CHF at a key level, placing your Stop Loss just above the same zone. After some time, you notice the price impulsively moves towards your Stop Loss, triggering it and taking you out of the trade. Later, you watch the price flip and move in the direction you had originally predicted. Frustrated, you begin to blame the market, convinced it’s rigged against you. However, what really happened is that the price was pushed into an obvious pool of Stop Losses, allowing the positions you and many others sold to be bought back. This also enabled large institutional orders to be filled at better prices, while maintaining balance between buy and sell orders.
How do you avoid this? The key is to better understand market dynamics and make more informed decisions. In this scenario, a smarter approach would have been to place your entry where the obvious pool of Stop Losses is located. By doing so, you could have captured a more favourable risk-to-reward ratio, perhaps achieving a 1:3 trade, as illustrated in the accompanying chart.
So next time, before rushing into a trade, take a step back. Assess the situation with greater patience and clarity. Often, there’s an initial push, just as the price action indicates. This move entices traders into premature entries. Afterward, a sudden liquidity grab occurs, wiping out these traders before the market reverses in the anticipated direction.
Be patient. Play it smart.
Best wishes,
Investroy
Top-Down Analysis (The CORRECT Approach!)In this video I go through how to effectively do a top-down analysis, and avoid common mistakes.
This can apply to any type of trading methodology, but here the focus will be on ICT’s liquidity and inefficiency concepts.
This topic is important to traders who are keen on improving their win-rate and catching those higher RR trades. Whilst those things don’t define a successful trader, only consistent profitability and sound risk management do, I believe an effective top-down approach to framing trades is a worthwhile endeavor. Better trade setups give you less stress, more profits, and more freedom of time.
What is a "top-down analysis"?
It is basically doing your analysis on a higher timeframe to get in line with where you or your strategy is showing price is likely moving to, then on a lower timeframe to wait for your trade setup to form, and then either entering on that timeframe or going to an even lower timeframe for an entry signal. For example, if the weekly chart is bearish, and you see a bullish candle on the hourly chart, you may be fooled into trading in the wrong direction. For the highest probability, you need to be in sync with the higher timeframe.
My approach is split into 3 parts:
1. I have my BIAS which is built on the monthly, weekly, and daily timeframe. This helps me determine the direction I want to trade in. If my analysis is bullish, I want to look for longs, and vice versa for shorts.
2. Then I have my NARRATIVE, aka my ‘story’ of how my setup may form on a lower timeframe, usually the 1-4h timeframe. For example, I may be looking for a specific pool of liquidity to be swept at a certain time of the day.
3. Thirdly, I have my CONFIRMATION, which is usually based on the 5-15m timeframe.
I hope you found this video insightful and that it helps enhance your trading.
If you need clarification about the content, or you are still struggling with finding your groove as a trader and need personal guidance or mentorship, feel free to reach out to me via TradingView’s private message or on X (formerly known as Twitter).
Til next time, happy trading.
- R2F
Target Reached! USDCHF ReviewPrice reversed beautifully from the sell entry level we forecasted at 0.8988 and has reached the take profit target of 0.8908. The important lesson here is to place your take profit before a key level (vs right at the key level). As you can see in this video, price touched the TP level and took off in the other direction - just missing this crucial bit of information would have been potentially costly.
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How To Use The MACD IndicatorThe MACD (moving average convergence divergence) is one of my favourite trading tools or indicators, and might actually be the most powerful of them all. I first started using the MACD in 2015 and have been studying it since, it takes a long time to learn and understand all the parts of it. I wonder if I have learned all the hidden secrets by now, or will there be many more to come.
The MACD is a trend analyzing momentum indicator that indicates the difference between two exponential moving averages. It is calculated by subtracting the 26 period ema from the 12 period ema, this plots the calculation of the MACD line. A 9 period EMA of the MACD called the signal line is then plotted alongside the MACD line which results in the formation of the strong MACD. The default settings of the MACD are 12, 26, 9, slightly faster settings can be achieved by changing the numbers. The MACD indicator is also composed of a histogram which plots the difference between the MACD line and the signal line. When the MACD is higher than the signal line the histogram will be above the zero axis, conversely if the MACD is below the signal line the histogram will be below the zero axis.
There are many ways to use the MACD, 1) the first way to use the MACD is with the signal crosses such as when the MACD line crosses above the signal line. 2) a second way you can use the MACD as an indicator is when the MACD line and or signal line crosses above or below the zero axis, if it is crossing above the zero axis the trend is bullish, oppositely if it is crossing below the zero line the trend is said to be bearish. 3) A third way you can utilize the MACD is by using the histogram, when the histogram inflects from positive to negative this is a bearish signal, when the histogram inflects from negative to positive this is a bullish signal. More so for the example of 3) you can see that on the chart example I have provided below that the histogram is below the previous swing low and has shown a potential oversold value compared to the last or others before, you can compare other previous swing lows by zooming the chart out and making a larger comparison of all the values in the month or year for example, this also applies to 4) with the signal and MACD lines. 4) A fourth way to use the MACD as an indicator is by using the values on the Y axis, these can range to be any number increasing to positive infinity, or decreasing to negative infinity. You can furthermore compare previous high values and low values as an indication of the chart being overbought or oversold, you can use these values both with the MACD line/signal line and with the histogram itself. I suggest adding the MACD indicator to your chart and testing these methods.$EUR/USD
Ilyas Khan Top1 Markets
How To Filter The Trend Using The 200 DSMAIn the market we often see inconsistent trends that occur between different cycles. For example, at this time today we may think one asset is strong such as the US dollar, but instead today it may occur that in reality the US dollar is weak today, only to see that the following day the US dollar is once again stronger, or next week after a week of bearishness. One method that banks and financial institutions use to filter the longer term trend is by using a technical indicator, the simple moving average of period 200, on the daily chart. Continually the sma 200 is used to filter the trend, when the price is above the sma 200 the asset is said to be in a bullish trend, and when the price is below the 200 daily sma the asset is said to be in a bearish trend. Let us look closer into this further and take the EURUSD daily chart as an example. Interestingly enough the EURUSD currency pair has been trading under the 200 day sma since June 17, 2021, quite some time. It has not been able to cross back above the 200 sma and has thus been seen by banks and financial institutions as bearish. This in turn helps to maintain consistency by establishing a more accurate consistent trend. In this case you can choose to take short positions only on the euro pair during cycles of the asset being overbought. Though this strategy can show strength in longer term trends there is one downside, with this strategy of course since you can only take short positions you get less trades annually on the higher time frames such as on the 4 hour or 1 day time frames. The benefit and upside is that they are usually more accurate longer term, and often the trend can last for months or in this case over a year sometimes longer, and beneficially you are always trading with the banks rather than against them.
Ilyas Khan Top1 Markets
USD/CHF How To Trade Accumulating Pair With Spinning TopsThis Is An Educational + Analytic Content That Will Teach Why And How To Enter A Trade
Make Sure You Watch The Price Action Closely In Each Analysis As This Is A Very Important Part Of Our Method
Disclaimer : This Analysis Can Change At Anytime Without Notice And It Is Only For The Purpose Of Assisting Traders To Make Independent Investments Decisions.
USD/CHF -8/9/2022-• Triangle pattern explained + measurement method
• On the weekly chart, while ago, a triangle formation can be seen
• Breakout can be either way
• In the above case, the breakout was to the upside, supported by strong fundamentals in favor of the dollar
• Traders should wait for a successful breakout before placing any trade
• Breakout was confirmed by several bars above the upper trend line resistance
• Buy order is placed upon the breakout, and the measurement method is applied for profit taking
• What is the measurement method?
• It is the distance between the lowest point in the triangle and the first high, the widest distance in other words
• In this case, the length is 700 pips, so we project this distance from the breakout point
• We get the target around parity, which was reached accurately at a later stage
How To Analyze Any Chart From Scratch - Episode 1Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, as known as theSignalyst.
Today we are going to go over a practical example on USDCHF, but you can apply the same logic / strategy on any instrument.
Feel free to ask questions or request any instrument for the next episode.
Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Is it a Reversal Pattern ?! Symmetrical Triangle: A symmetrical triangle is composed of a diagonal falling upper trendline and a diagonally rising lower trendline. As the price moves toward the apex, it will inevitably breach the upper trendline for a breakout and uptrend on rising prices or breach the lower trendline forming a breakdown and downtrend with falling prices.
We can use this pattern mixed with CCI convergence to Go long.
USDCHF TRADING ANALYSISI'm publishing USDCHF trading idea of August month in which I try to figure out the things that how you should follow the things before taking each trade.
1) Before taking trade you should have to figure out number of confluence in your favor.
2) Before taking trade you should have minimum 3 confluence in your favor.
3) More confluence add the high edge of winning trade.
4) Exit is also more important as entry
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The Breakthrough StrategyGreetings, traders! Welcome to this short, 7-step strategy lesson.
Are you new to trading? Don't worry: we're dedicated toward providing the most high-quality, easy-to-understand, and straight-to-the-point investing education to the TradingView community. This strategy lesson is beginner-friendly (we have pictures!), as we've inserted helpful links into each and every term, just in case you don't know them yet. Anyways, let's get right into the steps of this effective trading method , which we've named " The Breakthrough Strategy ":
• STEP 1, The Breakthrough:
Identify a breakout (or "breakthrough") at the most recent Support/Resistance (S&R) zone. With the horizontal line tool, if you haven't already, mark the level at which price broke: this will be your potential Entry Point (EP).
• STEP 2, The Turnaround:
Immediately following the breakout, you'll wanna see two or more consecutive candlesticks, going in the same direction of the breakout. After the streak, when you spot the first completely-formed candle, going in the opposite direction, you've found your "turnaround" point! Mark it up with a S&R line: this will be your potential Take Profit (TP) level.
• STEP 3, The Other Side:
Now, identify the most recent S&R zone, on the opposite side of the breakout zone: this will be your potential Stop Loss (SL) level.
• STEP 4, The Average:
Make sure that you have your Exponential Moving Average (EMA, 50) installed on TradingView. Is the end of it between the EP and the SL? Perfect! You're ready for the next step.
• STEP 5, The Order:
Place a Limit Order (TP, SL, and EP levels are mentioned in the previous steps). If, before price hits the Entry Point, things start to get choppy, close the pending order: it is now invalid.
• STEP 6, The Execution:
Did price hit your Entry Point? The order has been triggered —we're in! Good job, good luck, and hope for some profits.
• STEP 7, The Final Step:
"Practice makes perfect," so make sure that you backtest this method, to test it out before using it on the live market. Be sure to follow us, for future lessons which will help you significantly increase the power of this strategy!
We hoped that this helped you! We ask that you pay it forward, and share this lesson with a friend, a fellow trader, or... heck... share it with your grandmother.
“My mission is to help you see forex for what it is: it’s not ‘rocket science,’ but a simple strategy game. Get on the ‘good side’ of probability, develop the proper mindset, and you will prosper.”
— Nio Pomilia, Forex Free Press
"Trade what you see, not what you think!"... and try to find multiple-100s of pips, even in over-manipulated junk such as the USDCHF.
Let's see if it's possible...
The title chart is the USDCHF Monthly, as it stands at the end of this quarter - 03/2021. What is the story here?...
It appears that this pair is rather predictable and has been obeying all the major support/resistance levels (PRZs), going as far back as one cares to look;
It is also clear that this pair continues to do so despite the relentless manipulation (money printing) of the SNB;
That massive 42.5% jump of the CHF vs. the USD, between 2009-2012 (which has not been recovered since), ...
... back when the whole world seemed to come apart ("The Great Financial Crisis" + European Sovereign Crisis), the Swiss Franc still remained one of only two, true Safe Haven currencies in the entire world! (beside the Japanese Yen and despite every imaginable liquidity constraint.)
Fast forward to the Covid Pandemic ...
... and the Franc did it's thing , once again, with an immediate +11.5% rise versus the USD, again, in what appeared to be the end of the (financial) world. However, several more things are noteworthy during this period;
- Had the SNB paid attention, they would have already known (or at least expect) that the support zone which formed back in 2014, at 0.8750, and which prompted a strait and virtually immediate -17.5% slump in the Franc vs. the Dollar, would stop and hold back the continued and "uncomfortable" advance of the Franc, this time around, as well; (The decision makers at the SNB are no different from the rest of clueless bureaucrats, typical for any other Central Bank lackey, anywhere else in the world. The only difference may be that they tend to have longer-term mandates and tenures.)
- Had they paid attention they also would have found it to be unnecessary to increase the printing of the Franc by a whopping +29% month-over-month (CHF60 Billion per), right into oblivion, or at least until they shot strait to the top of the pile and became one of the largest public investor in the Nasdaq100, scrapping 800+ years of Swiss tradition and thus tying Swiss fortunes to the likes of Apple and Netflix.
- Had they paid attention to their own history and tradition, they would have also realized a couple of fundamental truths;
1) No amount of printer ink will stop the worlds love affair - well in excess of Swiss GDP - with the Swiss Franc, any time when the the end of the world is nigh; (I.e. The reliance on Swiss resilience and frugal nature.)
2) With a Swiss ruling class (top 5%) having more wealth than any other nation on earth (in relative terms), reclusive, invisible and may be even boring as they may be, they will have their Central Bankers' heads on a pike (all the heads on one pike; The Swiss are frugal) way before any of them can do permanent or even lasting damage to the Swiss Franc and well before they can all shout "Mein Gott!" (or "Mon Dieu!", dependent on the particular central banker's regional origins).
Just in case should any of the above appear to be idle speculation, here is a gentle reminder; Does anyone recall Jan. 15, 2015? - When the SNB unceremoniously pulled the peg to the Euro, without any further (or previous) ado! Enough said.
The Franc has been in a heavy uptrend vs. the USD even before the Covid Pandemic;
Moving on...
As it currently stands (at the end of March, 2021) the top three FX Carry Trades are;
USDCHF
USDJPY
EURUSD
... in order of skew - lopsidedness. (check the C.O.T., FX positioning, etc.)
The Euro most likely being a transient phenomena , much like the ad-hoc, incompetent, protectionist, paradoxically conceived unionist nightmare of a Trans-national alliance which issues it... Not a factor. (The next, not-too-distant Euro-crisis will have to attest to that.) - And, as always, that leaves the Japanese Yen and the Swiss Franc, once again, as the only remaining Safe Haven currencies of any gravitas.
Clearly, liquidity is a determining factor here and that leaves the Yen as the only Safe Haven currency with any substantial (i.e. Global) shock absorption potential, as this chart should underline the notion;
- As for the Swiss Franc... For one, this Monthly Chart illustrates several of the above catalogued fundamental thesis. Simply put, the USD was an obvious and helluva buy vs. the CHF, ever since following the Euro Zone's Sovereign Crisis where, in crisi-upon-crisis, end-of-the-world situations (such as a Pandemic), the obvious maximum pain-threshold of the Swiss National Bank lies in the 0.8750-0.8800 area vs. the USD.
Clearly, that is the area where they are likely to go all-in, given any prolonged future appreciation of the Franc vs. the USD.
The rest of the fluctuations in this pair are simply the product of the musical chairs methodology applied as (or rather: instead of) the"economic stability" mandate of the 18 or so Central Banks around the world which may be soon to be the proud parent/owners of 60% of the world's newly socialized, Soviet-style economies. - And, as has been established above, this pair presently being one of the premier Carry Trades.
So, what is the play here, if any?...
Having established somewhat of a fundamental picture, what are the technicals here?
The Weekly Chart;
... clearly shows that the CHF tends to move (or rather: be moved by the SNB) in strait, predictable drives, respecting Quarter Point targets along the way. (OK, so the Swiss are anal. What a shock!)
This whole technical picture stands the reason since all movement here, in this no-man's-land, is due to the whole civilized world continuously and relentlessly purchasing the Franc, day in, day out, from sun up to sun down, until the SNB wakes up and decides to push back by running the money printing press to the tune of CHF60-80 Billion at a pop - per month. E.g. There was that textbook ABCD pattern (World buying, SNB printing/selling; Rinse and repeat.), including it's "mandatory" 61.8% retracement. However, after which all potential ensuing suspense was interrupted by the outbreak of the Covid Pandemic, sending the Franc on an immediate 900 pip, +9% initial tear and well before any of the SNB peons could ever make it back into the office.
Of course that support zone between 0.875-0.9000 having been in place for the better part of 7 years, no great surprise that it caught that strait, end-of-the-world tear the Franc was on by forcing the SNB to go all-in at that point. (At which point you have also naturally unloaded, with both hands and eyes closed, on the Swiss Franc while front-running the SNB, even if you had to mortgage your unborn children to a local loan shark just so you could short more of the Franc and to load up endlessly on the Dollar, right?! - Good job!)
But what if, due to unforeseen circumstances, that initial 600+ pip free-ride was missed, all the way from 0.8750 to the present day 0.9400 level? Now what?
First of all, there is a perfectly formed Cypher working here - still on the weekly - with it's C-D leg consisting of an also a textbook 3-Drive, already having cleared the first two Fibonacci levels of it's three legs
... while heading strait for a major confluence(resistance) zone, naturally coinciding with the Cypher's PRZ (Potential Reversal Zone).
That confluence zone between 0.9500 -0.9650 consists, at a minimum, of;
2 year, descending Trend Line;
The (descending) Monthly 20 EMA;
The (descending) Weekly 50 EMA;
The 3rd (and final) Fibonacci extension of that weekly 3-Drive;
The (descending) Daily 200 EMA;
E.g. It is reasonable to assume that this pair will have difficulty to get above that 0.9600-0.9650 level, in no small part due to the already extended +8%, 34 (Daily) period strait rise which would take it up there.
Secondarily, it was established earlier that the USDCHF pair is currently in a Major Down Trend according to the Quarterly and Monthly charts, and in a strong Minor Up Trend due to the Weekly + Daily charts.
Put it all together and the first leg of this Counter-trend Trade points to a M.U.T. (maximum upside target) 0.9650 . That is the Exit for the First Leg .
As for the Entry for the First Leg ;
As it happens, this pair has just completed a Bearish Shark (harmonic) formation on the 4 hr. chart with the pair reacting to the PRZ, much as expected.
The expected retracement of this harmonic to it's First Price Target around 0.9340 , coinciding with the 4 hr. 20 EMA, is reasonably expected to provide a clean Entry for the first leg of this trade with a very favorable risk/reward ratio.
(There are reasonably reliable methods by which to enter trades, such as this up-leg, with constrained risk levels;
... but that's an entirely other conversation.)
Finally, put it all together;
... and this is what one is looking for here:
The up-leg of a counter-trend(!!) trade;
Entry: 0.9327-0.9317;
Target- Exit: 0.9560-0.9580;
Risk/Reward: 1:17.5;
Number of pips: 250;
Total expected trading period: 115 hours (4.8 days);
The End Game
Should chance favor the above plan/analysis/Trade Setup/outcome, that would bring a planned entry into the Primary (trend-wise; Down) Leg the forefront. (One has to cross bridges as they present themselves.)
In that case, one would expect a strong and immediate reaction in the PRZ of the (by then) valid Cypher on the weekly chart - which, if valid, is normally a very strong and reliable harmonic.
... and this is what one would be looking for, in that case:
The down-leg of a in-trend(!!) trade;
Entry: 0.9620-0.9640;
Target- Exit: 0.9200-0.9190;
Risk/Reward: 1:15;
Number of pips: 400-450;
Total expected trading period: 7 weeks (~70 days);
Note
The USDCHF currently being one of the primary carry trades , this pair's trajectory has far(ther) reaching implications for U.S. and Global equity index positioning - also referred to as: Risk On/Off.
Furthermore, due to the notable liquidity constrains of the CHF vs. it's peers, this pair is an instructive barometer on which to measure the ever-present state of the global game of musical chairs, staged by the various Central Banks of the world.
usdchf long we entered this was a trade on usdchf we entered off the back of an inside day pattern, many retail traders will short or go long on the break of the high or low of an inside day however we know from back testing that the probability of an inside day failing is very high so we like to try go against the grain with these and make anyone that is selling get stopped out, this is one of many trades we have taken like this
How To Pair Currencies Like A Champ | Quick & Accurate🔵 As a forex trader, some of us stick to a pair or two, some of us trade several, and some just scan all of them for the exact setup that they trade in their strategy. Regardless, it’s a forex trader’s duty to have an awareness of how each currency is performing. If GBPJPY is going to rise, it will most likely be due to a combination of the pound gaining strength and the yen getting weaker.
Have you ever had the same setup on several EUR pairs, but the one you traded didn’t perform as well as others? It’s most likely because you chose the pair out of the bunch that wasn’t diverging in strength.
Before I analyze anything, I assess the strength of each currency first, then I select the best matchups to increase my probability by default.
Common techniques I’ve seen traders use to filter pairs:
Currency strength indicator
Currency heatwave mobile app
Looking at DXY, EXY, BXY, CXY, etc.
Manually scanning each pair to get a feel for each currency strength
None of these are right or wrong, but there is another method that I use, and I will share it in this post.
The issues I faced:
I use to manually scan each currency pair, but it was too exhausting, by the time I started analyzing charts, my brainpower was weakened.
As for the indicator & heatwave, I never personally liked them because I felt like they were too slow, I was always a step behind the big moves.
The issue with looking at DXY vs. BXY is the BXY has too much weight related to the dollar, if you look at it you’ll probably see it moves just like GBPUSD.
Solution:
We need a way to not only analyze each currency but make sure they are equally weighted. I created custom formulas on tradingview to help me read currency strengths faster, and more accurately.
How To Do It:
If you open a chart on tradingivew, and you go to the top left of your chart where you can search an asset. Not only can you search assets but you can create formulas here, you should be able to see the math symbols.
So if we want to create a formula to find the USD strength this is what we can type in:
(USDEUR+USDGBP+USDJPY+USDCHF+USDCAD+USDNZD+USDAUD) / 7
*Note: Use the same broker for all of them when you add them to the formula, and make sure they are consistent. The USD is the first one listed on all of them, we need this consistency because we are comparing everything to the USD. At the end of the formula, I divide it by 7 because that will divide the entire formula and show us the average.
When you press enter you will now see a chart displayed on your screen, this is displaying how the USD is performing across the board.
I have done this for all the top 8 currencies, I have also created one for XAU versus the top 8 so I can see its performance as well.
Now let’s say you are a harmonic style trader. This is how you can use it to find the higher probability harmonics (you can do this for other signals too)
Example #1: GBPNZD
Here’s what the formulas say:
Based on this, they are both strong, so there should be some range behavior. Let’s see how GBPNZD actually behaved:
Example #2: GBPNZD
Let’s say you are a trend trader, here’s what the formula said:
Based on this, GBPNZD should rise with strength because of the divergence.
How I use this: I use these formulas to find when trends or sentiment switches are occurring. I spend probably 65% of my time analyzing on these 8 charts. It allows you to be one step ahead of everyone else, and to increase your probability. I’ve used it on 5-minute charts, H1, H4, Daily, and Weekly. I’ve had no issues with it for over two years.
Of course, I’m not saying throw away the DXY or anything like that, this is simply another tool you can put in your box. I hope you found this valuable, feel free to backtest or tweak it to your liking, if you watched my Sunday outlooks, I go through this process before the week begins, then I do it before each of my trading sessions during the week.
Let’s Elevate,
Gio
P.S. Every week I share a market outlook, educational content and trade ideas, right here on tradingview. Make sure to follow so you don’t miss them!
Comment your thoughts below, or if you need help setting it up!
Also, if you want to sharpen your psychology check this post I shared monday -> 5 Ways To Enhance Your Trading Psychology
USD/CHF - Trend IdentificationGood Morning Traders. Here is an educational piece on two key things.
Before trading a currency pair, we want to head to at least the daily chart to identify the long term trend on the pair before we scale down to our lower time frames. To identify a trend is simple. For an uptrend, look for higher highs and higher lows.
Here is a clear long term downtrend on UCHF. We can see price is making lower highs and lower lows. This indicates a downtrend.
It is important to zoom out and see highs and lows of markets long term. We've done that here with USD/CHF and we can see that price is now at 6 year lows! Will sellers keep pushing price down further or is this a level where buyers will jump into the market?
Top Tip - You can always switch to a line chart. This makes identifying the trend easier for forex beginners!
Is the US Dollar dying or dead?In this very busy chart, I compare 6 forex pairs. It needs some study. What seems clear to me is that the USD strength has been heading south manly since March 2020.
This is not unexpected of course, following the FED's money-printing spree, now called QE infinity. I'm not here to say whether that's a good thing or a bad thing.
The overall effect of a weak USD is to keep the US stock indices afloat. I'm not saying that is an intended effect of what the FED is/was doing.
I think the effect is dangerous on both Bond and Stock markets, because at some point people or banks are gonna wake up and wonder 'What's the value of money?'. In a sense that's already happening, as in other posts I've shown that there is movement of value into metals and Bitcoin.
The above are speculative opinions that may well be wrong. This means that you ought not to make decisions based on anything I say.
Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities on live accounts. Chart positions shown are not suggestions. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
Ascending ChannelKEY TAKEAWAYS
An ascending channel is used in technical analysis to show an uptrend in a security’s price.
It is formed from two positive sloping trend lines drawn above and below a price series depicting resistance and support levels, respectively.
Channels are used commonly in technical analysis to confirm trends and identify breakouts and reversals.
Understanding Ascending Channels
Within an ascending channel, price does not always remain entirely contained within the pattern’s parallel lines but instead shows areas of support and resistance that traders can use to set stop-loss orders and profit targets. A breakout above an ascending channel can signal a continuation of the move higher, while a breakdown below an ascending channel can indicate a possible trend change.
Ascending channels show a clearly defined uptrend. Traders can swing trade between the pattern’s support and resistance levels or trade in the direction of a breakout or breakdown.
Trading the Ascending Channel
Support and Resistance: Traders could open a long position when a stock's price reaches the ascending channel’s lower trend line and exit the trade when price nears the upper channel line. A stop-loss order should be placed slightly below the lower trend line to prevent losses if the security’s price abruptly reverses. Traders who use this strategy should ensure there is enough distance between the pattern’s parallel lines to set an adequate risk/reward ratio. For example, if a trader places a $5 stop, the width of the ascending channel should be a minimum $10 to allow for a 1:2 risk/reward ratio.
Breakouts: Traders could buy a stock when its price breaks above the upper channel line of an ascending channel. It is prudent to use other technical indicators to confirm the breakout. For example, traders could require that a significant increase in volume accompanies the breakout and that there is no overhead resistance on higher time frame charts.
Breakdowns: Before traders take a short position when price breaks below the lower channel line of an ascending channel, they should look for other signs that show weakness in the pattern. Price failing to reach the upper trend line frequently is one such warning sign. Traders should also look for negative divergence between a popular indicator, such as the relative strength index (RSI), and price. For instance, if a stock’s price is making higher highs within the ascending channel, but the indicator is making lower highs, this suggests upward momentum is waning.
Envelope Channels
Envelope channels are another popular channel formation that can incorporate both descending and ascending channel patterns. Envelope channels are typically used to chart and analyze a security’s price movement over a longer period of time. Trend lines can be based on moving averages or highs and lows over specified intervals. Envelope channels can use similar trading strategies to both descending and ascending channels. This analysis will typically be based on a stock price movement over an extended period of time while ascending and descending channels can be beneficial for charting a security’s price immediately after a reversal.
DXY For Leading weekHello dear friends.
In this analysis, you can see that the dollar index has reached the demand area. It can also be seen in that area that the price is in a relative support at 92.8 and 92.5 and its relative resistance is between 94 and 93.7.
To climb: Stabilize above 94
For Descent: Fix below 92.5
Good luck.






















