BTCUSD Rebounds From Channel Support — Targeting $93K PullbackHello traders! Let’s break down the current BTCUSD market structure. Bitcoin continues to move within a well-defined descending channel, where price has repeatedly respected both the resistance and support lines. Every touch of the upper boundary resulted in a Turned Around reaction, confirming strong seller dominance throughout the downtrend. After breaking below a key local support, BTCUSD shifted into a deeper bearish phase and moved toward the broader Support Zone beneath $90,000. This level aligns with the lower boundary of the descending channel and has acted as a strong reaction area in previous price swings. Recently, price reached the channel’s support line, where buyers stepped in and formed an early rebound attempt. BTCUSD is now showing signs of a potential short-term correction, with price aiming toward the nearest resistance cluster at $93,000–$96,000, which also represents the mid-channel region and a key retest zone. As long as Bitcoin stays below the descending resistance line, the broader trend remains bearish. However, a corrective move toward TP1 near $93,000 is likely if the current support continues to hold. A rejection from the resistance area could send the price back toward the channel bottom for another test. A confirmed breakout above the descending resistance line would be the first signal of a potential shift in momentum and could open the way for a stronger recovery. Until then, BTCUSD remains in a bearish structure with a possible short-term bullish pullback. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
1-BTCUSD
Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) – Short-Term Bearish StructureHi!
The chart shows BTC moving inside a descending channel, with consistent lower highs and lower lows confirming a controlled downtrend. Recent price action attempted to push back into the QML (Quasimodo Level) area, but the reaction there shows clear rejection, suggesting supply remains in control.
Price is now falling toward the lower boundary of the channel, where a short-term bounce is possible. However, unless BTC breaks above the QML zone and the descending trendline, the broader expectation remains bearish.
The projected path suggests:
A drop into the channel low,
A corrective pullback,
And then a continuation lower toward the next major support zone around 89,700 – 89,800.
Overall, momentum and structure both support a bearish continuation unless buyers manage to reclaim the supply zone above.
Has The BITCOIN Bear Cycle Started? (1W)This is a weekly timeframe analysis. In this analysis, we examined the bullish phase that pushed Bitcoin from the $15K channel to the $125K channel.
This phase appears to be a bullish diametric pattern, with its final wave, G, completed as a triangle.
It’s important to note that there is a possibility for this diametric pattern to transform into a symmetrical pattern. The difference between a symmetrical and a diametric pattern is that the symmetrical pattern has two additional waves.
The price zone that could potentially turn our diametric pattern into a symmetrical one is the upper support area, between $64K and $74K. The potential timeline for a reversal is indicated by two vertical lines on the chart for the months of March and January. These were derived from the duration of previous branches of this pattern, where corrective branches of prior waves ranged between 16 to 25 weekly candles. If the pattern is symmetrical and not diametric, this means the next two waves of this bullish cycle are still remaining, following these timing rules.
In general, the intersection of the support zone and the timeline lines at the top of the chart is where the price could develop the pattern and move upward. However, if these zones fail, it means the main pattern was the diametric itself, and we are now in Bitcoin’s bear cycle. In other words:
If the price continues to decline, it’s possible that the diametric pattern was the main bullish phase, which is now complete, and Bitcoin has entered a monthly timeframe bear cycle that could last months or even more than two years.
The main support after this bullish phase, on higher timeframes, is in the $31K to $44K range, where Bitcoin’s bear cycle might finally end.
We hope this gives you a clear perspective on Bitcoin.
For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management
When we reach the first target, save some profit and then change the stop to entry
Comment if you have any questions
Thank You
DeGRAM | BTCUSD is testing the $90k level📊 Technical Analysis
● BTC/USD is testing a major support cluster near 88–90K, where price aligns with the long-term dynamic support line formed from previous triangle and flag breakdowns.
● The new rejection wick at support and the descending channel structure suggest a potential medium-term rebound toward 95–97K if buyers defend this level.
💡 Fundamental Analysis
● Bitcoin sentiment stabilizes as ETF inflows resume and risk assets recover after easing US inflation expectations.
✨ Summary
Support: 88–90K. Rebound potential: 95–97K. Medium-term bullish scenario valid while holding the dynamic support.
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BITCOIN | LONG BIAS | POTENTIAL REVERSAL AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCHTraders,
Bitcoin is now sitting inside a large falling wedge structure on the daily chart. Wedges of this type often form during trend exhaustion and can precede significant reversals when the lower boundary is reached. This pattern sets the stage for everything that follows in this analysis.
Below is the full breakdown of why I believe Bitcoin is positioned for a potential reaction and where the most important levels are located.
Recap of the Previous Bitcoin Analysis
In the previous IG:BITCOIN analysis
I mentioned two scenarios. Scenario one outlined the following sequence:
• Price pushes into 107k to 108k
• That move sweeps the weak high and taps the AVWAP anchor
• If spot CVD slows or perps shift into net selling, a rejection becomes likely
• That rejection sends price back toward the mid range and possibly into 101k to 102k
• Continuation into the higher timeframe LVN at 98k becomes possible
Every single step unfolded almost perfectly.
Current State of Bitcoin
Bitcoin is now sitting directly on the lower band of the AVWAP anchored from 7 April 2025.
What this means
AVWAP stands for Anchored Volume Weighted Average Price. It calculates the average position of market participants beginning from the chosen anchor point. The April low marked a major shift in trend structure. When price reaches the lower band of an AVWAP anchored to such a significant low, it often acts as dynamic support. This is because it reflects the average entry of early cycle buyers.
If price holds and begins reclaiming from this area, it signals that the strongest hands are defending their positions. If it fails, the market risks a deeper flush into lower demand clusters.
Value Zone Analysis with Fixed Range Volume Profile
To determine whether Bitcoin is inside a significant value region, we use a Fixed Range Volume Profile (FRVP). The range is anchored from the April low to the October high.
Zooming into the profile on the left, price has now re-entered the core value area of this entire swing. The red horizontal line marks the Point of Control, which is the level with the highest traded volume in the entire range. The current low sits almost exactly on this level.
Pixel perfect confluence.
Why this matters
When price returns to the value area after a distribution phase, two possible outcomes appear:
1. Reversal
Buyers defend value and price rotates back toward high volume nodes above.
2. Continuation breakdown
Price accepts below value, meaning even previous buyers are unwilling to re accumulate here. This opens the door to the next low volume pocket and lower demand zones.
Right now, the reaction at this level is critical because we have perfect alignment between the lower AVWAP band and the FRVP Point of Control.
Mathematical Levels and Fibonacci Structure
Now we collect the mathematical evidence. We are sitting at a core AVWAP level and a core FRVP level. Now we check if the market is stretched mathematically.
Bitcoin at the 1.618 Extension
On the four hour spot chart, I apply a Trend Based Fibonacci Extension from A to B and project it from C.
The placement rule
Ask yourself:
What was the last meaningful swing high that ended the previous trend and started the current reversal?
That swing becomes A to B. The first corrective lower high after that becomes C.
Using this structure, Bitcoin has now extended perfectly into the 1.618 level. The 1.618 Fibonacci extension is historically associated with exhaustion. Sharp downlegs often pause, take liquidity, or reverse at this point.
TOTAL at the 2.0 Extension
To confirm that this move is not isolated to Bitcoin, we check the CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL crypto market.
TOTAL reflects the entire crypto market and shows equilibrium conditions.
When Bitcoin and TOTAL stretch at the same time, reaction probability increases.
Start with a retracement from A to B:
Price nearly hit the fifty percent mark but not entirely. Then reverse the tool from B to A. Doing so reveals the extension levels below. Price is now sitting exactly at the 2.0 extension.
Why the 50 percent connects to the 2.0
If a move retraces halfway, the remaining distance becomes the basis of the flipped extension. Doubling that distance gives the 2.0 level.
Because TOTAL did not fully reach the fifty percent retracement, there is a small missing portion. To visualise this, I draw a box between the actual retracement and the fifty percent level. Then I duplicate the box under the 2.0 extension.
The duplicated box lands perfectly on the current low, showing mathematical symmetry.
Additional Mathematical Check
I also check the structure that began after the 10 October crash.
By extending from B to A, the downside projections appear. Price tagged the 1.618 level perfectly.
Full symmetry
Bitcoin at the 1.618
TOTAL at the 2.0
Internal structure at the 1.618
When all three align, the move has reached market wide symmetry. These zones commonly produce strong reactions or reversals.
Summary so far
We now have confluence in four categories:
• AVWAP support
• FRVP Point of Control support
• Fibonacci extensions on BTC and TOTAL
• Mathematical symmetry across multiple swings
Next, we check the internal fuel of the move: order flow.
Order Flow Analysis
Spot CVD Divergence
On both the one hour and thirty minute charts, Spot CVD continues making lower lows while price holds steady. This means aggressive sellers are pushing market sell but price refuses to break down. This can only occur when passive limit buyers absorb the flow.
This is hidden absorption.
Coin Margined Futures CVD
Coin margined CVD shows the same pattern: lower lows while price stays flat.
This indicates aggressive shorting with no continuation.
Why coin margined matters
Coin margined futures use BTC as collateral. When price declines, the collateral loses value. When price rises, shorts lose even more because both their collateral and their position move against them. Coin margined shorts get squeezed harder and faster.
Open Interest
• Stablecoin margined OI: holding steady. Traders continue to open or maintain positions during sell pressure.
• Coin margined OI: compressed during the dump and is now flat. This means shorts are sitting in the market and can be forced out.
Summary
Price stable
CVD falling
OI steady
This is absorption combined with short build-up.
This often leads to a sharp reversal when price begins to lift.
Volume Analysis
Chart:
Accumulation and Distribution (A D Indicator)
The A D indicator shows whether volume flows into candles or out of them.
On the one hour chart, the A/D is trending up while price stays flat. This means buyers are stepping in during down-wicks and absorbing sell pressure. Price is not showing this strength yet, which is typical for accumulation phases.
On Balance Volume (OBV)
OBV measures directional volume flow.
On the last wick down, OBV actually moved up.
This means buyers absorbed the move rather than sellers pushing price down.
This is the classic bullish volume divergence after a liquidity sweep. Both Spot and Perps Confirm
These divergences appear on both spot and perpetual futures. Spot confirmation is the strongest form of validation because it represents real buying without leverage distortion.
The combination of A/D rising, OBV diverging, Spot CVD falling, and Futures CVD falling strongly supports that the sell pressure is being absorbed.
What Happens Next
Based on everything above, I expect Bitcoin to start by taking the weak local high at 99,862. Weak highs form when the wick structure is sloppy and no real sellers defended the level. On fine tick data, this high looks even weaker.
Taking that high breaks the current local structure and potentially triggers a short squeeze. If Bitcoin begins closing four hour candles above 106,200, the next important level is 108,500.
Main Thesis
Bitcoin pushes into the first target zone and performs a Swing Failure Pattern around 115,700. With strong momentum, the move could extend into the 17,300 to 18,000 region.
Invalidation and Downside
If Bitcoin loses support and spends meaningful time below 93,000, the next major support is 84,617. This is the next Point of Control from the AVWAP auction and an extremely important level to watch.
All relevant levels are marked on the charts.
Trade safe and manage risk.
From the depths of the sands,
ThetaNomad
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Bitcoin: The Most Pristine Greater-Fool Machine Ever BuiltLet’s cut the bullshit.
Bitcoin generates zero cash flow to holders.
Not one satoshi in dividends, interest, yield, rent, or revenue share. Ever.
Your only path to profit is dumping your coins on someone who pays more than you did. Full stop.
The protocol itself produces zero economic productivity that accrues to BTC holders.
Every single transaction fee? Goes straight to miners.
Holding 1 BTC gives you exactly zero claim on future fees, block rewards, or anything else.
You are not a shareholder. You own a database entry in a game of digital musical chairs.
As of November 2025:
~61-70% of all Bitcoin has not moved on-chain in over 12 months (Glassnode, Chainalysis, Arkham — pick your poison, the story’s the same).
If Bitcoin were actually “money” or even a real payment rail, that dormancy number would be microscopic.
Instead, it screams one thing: pure HODL speculation praying for capital gains.
Real on-chain settled value (not CEX wash-trading volume) is running ~$8-16B per day depending on the source and day (Glassnode, CryptoQuant).
Market cap sits at ~$1.9 trillion right now.
That’s a daily turnover of roughly 0.5-0.8% of total cap.
Even boring Apple stock — a company with actual earnings, buybacks, and dividends — turns over more than that on most days.
Visa settles hundreds of times more real-world value every single day with a fraction of the energy waste.
Speaking of energy: Bitcoin currently guzzles 160-190 TWh annually (Cambridge, Digiconomist — Nov 2025 estimates).
That’s the entire electricity consumption of the Netherlands or Poland… to secure a ledger that moves <0.1% of global payment volume.
Every single major Bitcoin parabola required a brand-new cohort of buyers who had never touched BTC before:
2011-2013 → Cypherpunks + Silk Road degens
2016-2017 → Retail FOMO + ICO mania
2020-2021 → Institutions + MicroStrategy + PayPal + stimulus checks
2024-2025 → Spot ETFs + Trump “strategic reserve” hype + corporate treasury narrative
Each wave paid 5-10× higher prices so the previous bagholders could cash out or flex unrealized gains.
This isn’t “adoption.” This is textbook sequential recruitment of greater fools.
When fresh money slows? Bitcoin has never once failed to crash 75-85%+ from the top.
2011: -93%
2014: -86%
2018: -84%
2022: -77%
No exceptions. Ever.
You’ll say: “But it’s a scarce, neutral, global store of value the world needs!”
That’s the exact circular loop that defines every structurally Ponzi-like asset:
Price up → “See, great store of value!” → New money floods in → Price up → Repeat
Snap any link and the entire house of cards collapses to mining cost (or lower — remember every bear market?).
Gold? 5,000 years of monetary premium, industrial use, jewelry demand, central-bank reserves, no risk of a better chain obsoleting it.
USD? U.S. military, tax requirements, deepest bond market on Earth.
Bitcoin? A 2009 whitepaper and a prayer.
Everything else — “sound money,” “digital gold,” “unconfiscatable” — is just the latest narrative you tell yourself so you don’t have to face the raw economic structure.
It’s not fraud. It’s not a scam. It’s not even malicious.
It’s simply the most transparent, voluntary, pristine greater-fool wealth-transfer engine ever engineered.
Early entrants get life-changing wealth.
Late entrants hold the bag when the music stops.
And yes — I’ll be right here quoting this exact post when the next cycle drags in the next desperate cohort at 2-5× today’s price, telling them the same uncomfortable truth.
The structure never changes.
Only the story does.
Trade accordingly. Or don’t. Your bags.
BTC Weekly View !BTC / USD
Bitcoin (BTC) followed my previous analysis on October 30th, dropping from $110,000 to its current price of $96,000. check here
What's Next?
Take a Look at the weekly chart:
Bitcoin is currently at a "do or die" support level (trend line + 50-week moving average).
This moving average has been a turning point in previous cycles.
If the price breaks below this level, it will confirm a mid-term bear trend with minimal target around 74k so keep an eye on this chart.
Is This Where Bitcoin Makes Its Major Decision?
🔥 The Hidden April Gap Nobody Is Talking About — Is This Where Bitcoin Makes Its Major Decision?
Most traders completely missed this one.
Buried inside April’s fast displacement sits a hidden Fair Value Gap that aligns exactly with the real Monthly–Weekly Higher Low — and if price revisits it, this level could decide the next macro direction.
Let me walk you through it.
⸻
📍 The Level (Rounded for Clarity)
This forgotten 15m imbalance sits between:
• $86,200 (top)
• $85,350 (bottom)
Not just any gap — this one overlaps perfectly with the true HL in the Monthly–Weekly structure, the same HL that has been carrying the entire macro bullish leg.
This is where real decisions are made.
⸻
📉 Why This Zone Matters
If price revisits this area, there are only two outcomes — and both are significant:
1️⃣ Early Reversal Attempt (If Buyers Defend the HL)
A clean bullish reaction here could signal:
• Absorption of sell-side pressure
• Builder structure for a new daily leg
• First real attempt to end the higher-timeframe down sequence
2️⃣ Bearish Absorption (If Sellers Crush the HL)
If price cuts through the gap with displacement,
the Monthly–Weekly HL collapses.
That opens the door to deeper levels with minimal support.
This is not a small level — this is a macro hinge point.
⸻
👁️ My Plan
I’m watching $86.2K – $85.35K very closely.
When price returns to this zone, I want to see whether we get:
• Reversal intent,
or
• Full bearish continuation.
No predictions.
No hopium.
Price action will tell the truth.
⸻
🧭 Final Thought
This April gap isn’t random.
It’s the hidden liquidity pocket sitting directly on the real Monthly–Weekly Higher Low.
If Bitcoin revisits this level, the market will reveal whether buyers still have strength — or whether the bearish macro continues without mercy.
If this analysis brought you clarity or aligns with your view,
please Like ❤️ | Comment 💬 | Follow 🔔 | Share ↗️ —
your support motivates me to keep releasing clean, objective insights for the community.
NFA.
COINBASE:BTCUSD COINBASE:MCZ2025
Local low, and a short-term retracement in minor B is expectedBitcoin has extended lower, now even past the 200% Fibonacci extension of its initial (a)-(b) sequence. Ironically, this has sparked a wave of commentary on CNBC, with several analysts asserting that Bitcoin’s breakdown signals a shift in their outlook for the U.S. economy.
Being an analyst is inherently difficult and occasionally humbling…but the notion that Bitcoin meaningfully reflects domestic economic strength or weakness is, frankly, misguided. At best, Bitcoin can serve as a barometer of risk appetite, which is a sentiment gauge, not an economic indicator. The BTC decline may suggest risk-taking has peaked, but it says nothing conclusive about underlying economic fundamentals…and whatever they may be.
From a structural standpoint, much like Solana, I continue to expect Bitcoin to reverse higher imminently in a minor B wave, as outlined in the chart above. Notably, for the first time in months, BTC and SOL have begun to align in both behavior and trend structure, something we have been lacking and a development worth watching.
BITCOIN The 1W MA50 Bear confirmation you didnt want, happened..Bitcoin (BTCUSD) just closed last week below its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since March 06 2023. Since that break-out, the 1W MA50 had been tested and held on 3 major occasions within the Bull Cycle, providing the most optimal mid-Cycle entries during those 2.5 years.
What's even more important than this time distance, is the fact that every 1W candle closing below the 1W MA50 has always marked/ confirmed the start of the new Bear Cycle historically. This is something that we've presented to you and discussed numerous times this year, as we were analyzing BTC's 4-year Cycle theory and why October was the most likely Cycle Top candidate time-wise.
This time we are looking at the previous Cycle more specifically, due to the strong similarities so far leading to the current Top. First of all the end-of-Cycle rallies on both started after a clear test and rebound on the 1W MA50. At the same time, the both displayed Higher Highs, against the 1W RSI's Lower Highs, which is a huge Bearish Divergence and the first strong indication that the Cycle Top may be forming.
The Cycle Top on both came when the 1W RSIs were 70.00. Also the 1W MA50 break-out took place around the 0.382 Fibonacci level from the last test/ rebound. As you may realize, there is a high degree of symmetry here both price-wise and in terms of RSI. If that continues, we can expect the Bear Cycle bottom to be at least on the 1.618 Fibonacci extension at $55000.
So do you think that the closing below the 1W MA50 has confirmed the new Bear Cycle? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTC/USD: Sell Pressure Building AgainBTC/USD: Sell Pressure Building Again
Market Summary
BTC/USD continues to operate within a declining market environment where sell-side pressure remains dominant. The recent recovery attempt has shown limited strength, forming only a temporary corrective phase within a broader downward cycle. Current conditions indicate that the market is preparing for another bearish continuation as liquidity builds on the upper side.
Market Behavior
The chart highlights a consistent pattern of declining impulses followed by shallow recoveries. Each upward phase has been met with swift rejection, reinforcing the dominance of bearish sentiment. The mid-range compression visible in the current structure reflects a controlled environment where market participants are redistributing positions rather than initiating larger upward transitions.
Momentum remains weak on the upside, and overall flow continues to align with the prevailing sell-side direction. Repeated structure shifts earlier in the sequence indicate that sellers are maintaining control of directional movement.
Current Setup
BTC/USD is now approaching a zone historically associated with short-term manipulation and liquidity grabs. Price appears to be forming a tight consolidation while climbing into this region. Such behavior often precedes a sell-side continuation, especially when rallies fail to show progressive expansion.
The chart projection suggests a likely formation of a distribution-style sequence before a renewed downward movement. This scenario aligns with the market’s broader behavior over recent sessions
$BTC Correction DOES NOT = Bear MarketPeople are rushing to call it a 🐻 market for CRYPTOCAP:BTC while the correction is 27.8%
Fun Facts:
There were 2x 32%+ corrections between 2024-25
On average, there are at least 3x 30%+ every bull cycle
🐻are in control since summer no doubt
But it's not a 🐻market yet...
Bear Cycle Beginning(On the Daily Chart)
2-3 days ago, Bitcoin officially broke down and out below the upward channel it has been in for over 1050 days. It broke down from the channel, retested the bottom of it, and now is continuing downward to make a lower low today.
THAT IS BAD. Muy malo.
Sehr schlecht. Molto male.
The RSI is also confirming a break to the downside.
This time frames match with prior cycles.
Potential correlation to halving cycles is noted.
Note: The 2 year expansion and contraction cycles are exponential in growth while if you look at them is totality, the upward trend shows a logarithmic curvature when you connect the highs from the last 12 years.
IF,
This is a normal bear cycle pullback like the last few, we'll see 30k.
(Yellow Path)
We can't really know for sure, so it's silly to anticipate for this, but as an alternate case,
IF,
This is the end of the larger cycle, meaning the end of Act 1, where crypto doesn't bottom until it is announced dead in the newspapers, then just set a reminder in 5 years to check back unless you want to swing trade the thing with massive volatility.
(Red Path)
BTC market on fire, sharp dropBTC Daily Timeframe – Short Summary
BTC is forming a bearish 5-wave Elliott structure:
Wave (3) seems to have bottomed around 94,000.
Price is now expected to make a Wave (4) pullback toward 100,000–101,000 (major resistance).
After that, BTC is likely to drop again in Wave (5) toward the 80,000–82,000 zone (1.618 extension).
Technical signals:
BTC is below all EMAs (34/89/200) → trend still bearish.
200 EMA near 104,800 is strong resistance.
Key supports: 94k, then 80k.
Bias: Bearish while below 104k–105k.
BTCUSD Long: Short-Term Correction Eyes $97,500 ResistanceHello traders! BTCUSD continues to trade within a well-defined descending channel, maintaining a broader bearish structure while forming a series of lower highs and lower lows. Throughout the move, the price has created multiple pivot points along both the upper and lower channel boundaries, confirming the strength of this trend. Inside the channel, Bitcoin developed two notable range phases, each reflecting temporary consolidation before continuing downward. A key formation on the chart is the Rounding Top Pattern, which developed near the mid-channel area. This structure signaled weakening bullish pressure and preceded a sharp decline back toward the channel’s lower boundary. After the breakdown, BTC attempted a small recovery, but price failed at the Supply Zone, creating a rejection that aligned with a bearish breakout confirmation.
Currently, the price is approaching the $97,500 short-term target, which sits close to the lower edge of the Supply Zone. This level has acted as a significant reaction area several times, and the market may retest it before deciding the next direction. As long as BTC trades within the descending channel, the broader trend remains bearish, but short-term corrective moves to the upside are possible due to the strong reaction from demand.
My scenario as long as BTCUSD holds above the Demand Zone ($94,000–$94,500) and shows continued strength, a corrective move toward $97,500 remains likely. This level represents the nearest resistance and aligns with previous supply reactions. A clean breakout above $97,500 would open the way for a deeper correction toward the channel’s mid-line or even the upper boundary. However, if price gets rejected at the supply zone again, sellers may regain control and attempt another push back toward the demand area. A confirmed break below the Demand Zone would invalidate the bullish recovery setup and could trigger continuation of the broader downtrend. For now, the structure supports short-term bullish correction, but overall trend remains bearish until the descending channel is broken. Manage your risk!
BTCUSD: Buyers Aiming for a Move Toward 99,000 ResistanceHello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current Bitcoin setup.
Market Analysis
BTCUSD has recently completed a strong downward phase inside a well-defined Downward Channel, where price continuously formed lower highs and lower lows. After reaching the Support Zone around $94,500–$95,200, buyers stepped in and created a fake breakout, followed by a quick recovery — a sign of weakening seller pressure. Following this rebound, Bitcoin formed an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern, confirming a potential bullish reversal. Price has now broken above the Triangle Resistance Line, signaling the first structural shift from bearish to bullish.
Currently, BTCUSD is consolidating just above the $95,500–$96,000 support zone, which now acts as a retest area for the breakout. As long as BTC stays above the Triangle Support Line, bullish momentum remains intact, and the market structure favors further upward movement. The nearest target for buyers is the $99,000 Resistance Zone, which previously acted as a strong supply area. A successful breakout above $99,000 would confirm bullish continuation and open the way toward higher resistance levels. If price fails to hold above support, a short-term pullback toward the lower triangle boundary may occur before buyers try to regain control.
My Scenario & Strategy
I expect BTCUSD to maintain its bullish bias as long as price trades above the Triangle Support Line and the key support zone. Potential long entries remain valid on retests of the $95,500–$96,000 area, with a primary target at the $99,000 Resistance Zone (TP1).
A confirmed breakout above $99,000 would strengthen bullish momentum and open the next leg upward. However, a breakdown below the triangle structure may lead to a deeper correction toward $94,500. For now, sentiment remains bullish, and Bitcoin appears ready for a continued recovery within the new reversal structure.
That's the setup I'm tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk.
Potential BTCUSD RUsh to $155KPrice action has reached our anticipated support level of $89,000, a critical threshold we identified in our previous analysis.
Based on current technical structure, we are positioning for a potential rally toward $155,000 in the next 24weeks.
However, over the coming weeks, with our target window extending through January 26th.
Forward Outlook:
The manner in which price navigates to this level will be instrumental in shaping our 2025 outlook. We are monitoring two primary scenarios:
Bullish Case: A sustained move higher could establish new targets at $145,000
Bearish Case: Failure to maintain momentum may result in a retracement toward the $78,000-$65,000 range
We are intentionally keeping technical details concise to maintain clarity for our portfolio holders.
Further updates will be provided as market conditions develop.
Disciplined patience remains our guiding principle.
Ieios Capital
Bitcoin RSI Oversold Again - Is Another bounce Coming?Bitcoin chart highlights a repeating pattern on Bitcoin’s daily timeframe: every time the RSI drops into oversold territory (below 30), it has historically marked a major local bottom followed by a strong recovery.
On the price chart above, each green arrow represents a previous swing low. On the RSI panel, the boxed areas show moments when RSI dipped below 30. Every one of these events has been followed by a noticeable rebound in Bitcoin’s price.
We are now seeing the same setup again. RSI has once again fallen into the oversold zone, aligning with another green arrow on the chart. If history repeats, we could see a similar recovery this time too, just as Bitcoin has done consistently over previous cycles.
Key Points
- Historically on the daily chart, whenever RSI dropped below 30, Bitcoin experienced a recovery soon after.
- The current RSI reading is tapping this same level again.
- This confluence suggests a potential bottoming zone and possible trend reversal.
- While not a guarantee, the pattern has been reliable across multiple past cycles.
Cheers
hexa
Btc - This is what may happen nextJust a Btc thought experiment. It's good to anticipate price action so you know if and when we need to invalidate our trading idea.
Those that follow, may remember I sold all my crypto (at the top), when I was repeatedly saying the crypto market will soon have a lower low...because of the "3 Red Week Down Rule".
Now that Btc hit the lower low, I believe Btc is in for a bounce soon. Maybe Btc bounces now, and then lower to $84K. Or maybe one last flash down to $84K now. Idk, my cystal ball is still in the shop.
Either way, I believe Btc (and some alts) have or are the process of bottoming, and preparing for a bounce.
Btw I have been waiting for this $84K Btc "WT" target for months. Going back into the market in this region is a good idea (with proper risk management). Although to be honest, I have shifted my attention to stocks in recent weeks as you may have noticed. Recent price action in the crypto market, should explain why I stopped following it. But now it's time to pay attention, that Btc's recent low was within 5% of my $84K target.
May the trends be with you
Liquidity Grab Into Weekly Demand Before Bullish DisplacementBitcoin is currently correcting into a higher-timeframe weekly imbalance (FVG) after breaking down from a short-term distribution range. Price has tapped into the upper portion of the green FVG zone, where liquidity is likely being engineered to trap late sellers. The wick reaction suggests that the market may be accumulating long positions while incentivizing shorts to enter below the recent swing.
Below the FVG sits a major HTF demand / support zone, aligned with a prior consolidation and a retested trendline area. This orange zone represents the highest-probability area for a strong bullish response, as it holds unmitigated demand and external liquidity from previous lows.
If price sweeps liquidity beneath the FVG and taps deeper into the HTF support, it would complete a classic SMC sequence:
1. Liquidity grab below FVG
2. Mitigation of untested HTF demand
3. Reaccumulation phase
4. Bullish displacement
A bullish market structure shift from this zone would confirm the continuation of the macro uptrend.
Once demand is confirmed, price would likely target:
• Inefficiencies left above
• Old highs serving as liquidity pools
• A potential rally toward a new all-time high (ATH) as drawn on your projection.
The overall structure remains bullish as long as the HTF support zone holds. This current corrective move appears to be a retracement designed to rebalance price and accumulate liquidity before the next expansion leg upward.
BTC SPX Ratio At Its LimitsAs BTC has matured, it has revealed its limits relative to SPX. Any time the price rises above 15, a correction follows.
While it has not yet cracked I find myself violating my own rules again and compelled to share this chart with you BEFORE the crack.
Markets are volatile and I am simply trying to keep people from getting hurt. Do not make the mistake of thinking BTC is a safe asset.
Bulls best to take profits.
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