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1-BTCUSD

The Bitcoin Cycle: A guide to time the next major entryBitcoin could be approaching a cycle low in the next 3-9 months. Zooming in on the weekly chart, you'll see that price tends to develop a horizontally defined resistance *after* hitting a cycle low and consolidating. Once price breaks out from that resistance, it triggers a buy signal. This is the type of action I want to see to get long with size. On the topic of cycles, I'll use a paragraph from the first book I read that got me interested in financial markets. From CYCLES: The Mysterious Forces That Trigger Events How can one tell, in any given instance, whether or not a regular rhythm that one discovers is caused by a real underlying force or merely by chance? Let's begin with some common sense and simple logic. If a cycle has repeated enough times, with enough regularity and with enough strength, the chances are that it is significant. Such regularity cannot reasonably be mere accident. Bottom line: A cycle's reliability is based on how well it repeated that cycle in the past. I will assume the cycle in this post remains in play, and will use it as my guide to help time the next major entry. The key thing is to enter based on a signal rather than buy just because price is in the cycle low range. The cycle just adds to the weight of evidence and helps with timing - it is NOT the signal.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Lanmar
204
$MSTR: Rough sailing for Saylor. Trading strategy for Strategy.Since the largest crypto liquidation event on 10th of Oct which yipped out 19 B $ of leveraged positions the Crypto market finds itself in turmoil. One of the major causalities of all this FUD has been MicroStrategy. The stock NASDAQ:MSTR is now trading 2.3% below the NAV. That means the cos. NASDAQ:MSTR is 2.3% less valuable than the amount of CRYPTOCAP:BTC it holds on to its balance sheet. This signifies the market is pricing a lot of short to medium term downturn in the fundamentals of the stock and a credit event in the worst-case scenario leading to a liquidity and a solvency crisis. From its ATH in Nov 2024 the stock has already lost 68% of the value. On 17th Sept I wrote in this blog that there is more downside expected in $MSTR/ CRYPTOCAP:BTC with support @ 0.002 CRYPTOCAP:BTC which indicates a price of 160 $ - 170 $ for $MSTR. Is NASDAQ:MSTR only game in town? Charts seem to disagree. for NASDAQ:MSTR by RabishankarBiswal — TradingView Currently the stock is @ 170 $. If we plot the Fib levels on the weekly from the bottoms of the FTX blowout in 2023 we clearly see the support and resistance levels for the stock. If NASDAQ:MSTR has 2 weekly close below 170 $ then we might easily visit the 140 $ range which seems to be a previous support level. If it breaks below 140 $ then we can easily see a 100 $ on $MSTR. Another key metrics is the short interest in the stock which is @ 10% of the current float. Trade Set Up: NASDAQ:MSTR to see more downside before any turnaround. Below 170 $ the stock can go down to 140 $ and eventually finding support @ 100. NASDAQ:MSTR / CRYPTOCAP:BTC may visit 0.0015.
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by RabishankarBiswal
BTCUSD Channel Support Holds as Price Targets $85K PullbackHello traders! Let’s break down the current BTCUSD market structure. Bitcoin is trading inside a well-defined descending channel, forming consistent lower highs and lower lows. This structure confirms that the market is still moving within a broader bearish trend. Earlier, BTC created a large range phase on the left side of the chart, showing indecision before breaking down and starting the current downtrend. Each approach to the upper trendline (Resistance Line) resulted in a clear turnaround, proving that sellers continue to defend this zone aggressively. During the recent decline, BTC made multiple corrections inside the channel, but every upward move was short-lived and rejected by the descending resistance. A recent breakout attempt failed, and price quickly returned back into the channel, signaling that bullish momentum remains weak. Currently, Bitcoin is testing the Support Line of the descending channel near the $81,400–$82,000 zone. This level has acted as a key demand area within the trend. A short-term bounce from support is possible, and the chart shows a projected move toward TP1 near $85,000, which aligns with a minor internal resistance level. However, as long as BTC trades below the major Resistance Level around $94,000 and within the descending channel, the market maintains a bearish bias. Any bullish recovery is likely to be limited unless price can break above the channel and secure structure above $94,000. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by LegionQ8
25
BTC and Crypto analysis based on Presidential Cycle. I've seen a 36% drop in bitcoin, and for the first time in my life as a multi asset trader and investor, I wonder: ok, this seems like a good opportunity, where will price turn, and where will it move to? when you look for a pattern, you first go with 3 things: 1. presidential cycles. 2. Decennial Market Cycle. 3. Annual and quarterly cycle. first thing you saw when you analyze the presidential cycle, you see a beautiful pattern that has been repeated 3 times in bitcoin historical data out of 4. and it is 1. buy in pre-election year, and sell in middle of post-election year. 2. transition year / second year after election is always a profit taking cycle with 30% average drop. now you know one data of best time to buy. and it's Jan 2027. when to sell? you might ask: 1. first option: after the election is done. 2. end of post election year. 3. hold it till the rest of your life. profit target is 150K, or you can hold it for the rest of your life, because you bought the bottom of all bottoms. (just kidding) Patiently wait for this opportunity, because it happens once in every 4 year.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by matinkhabari
2
Bitcoin Time-Channel CyclesYellow = 1064d expansion Green = 658d mean node Blue = 364d compression This chart documents a repeating BTC time-channel structure built from prior cycle highs and lows. The goal here is not to force a price prediction, but to show that Bitcoin has been respecting a consistent rhythm in time and slope across multiple market regimes. When the previous major ATL is used as the anchor, the next macro expansion phase has repeatedly aligned with a ~1064-day duration. That expansion window is displayed as the larger corridor, and it has now shown up cleanly from the 2015 ATL into the 2017 ATH, from the 2018 ATL into the 2021 ATH, and again from the 2022 ATL into the 2025 ATH.. Inside each 1064-day expansion corridor, a secondary time node appears at roughly 658 days, which is the golden-ratio contraction of the full expansion cycle. What’s notable is that price has not been randomly positioned at this midpoint in time. Instead, it has repeatedly migrated back to the mean of the rising channel near the 658 day mark, acting like a structural equilibrium reset within the broader uptrend. This “mean hit” behavior is visible across cycles and is one of the main reasons to watch time geometry alongside price geometry. After the mean-hit, the market has historically rotated into the final leg of the expansion phase before completing the cycle high. Following each macro high, the bearish compression phase has clustered around ~364 days, shown as the blue corridor. These reset windows are materially shorter than the expansion windows, which matches the observed tendency for bullish advances to build over years while bearish phases compress into faster, more volatile declines. The expansion to compression ratio is close to 3:1, reinforcing the idea that the market “inhales” slowly and “exhales” quickly in time. The important takeaway is that the model is not asking price to obey a specific number; it’s showing how price has behaved inside repeating time-based corridors, with the mean of the channel acting as a magnet around the 658 day node. This framework is shared as a structural study, not a guarantee. Markets can mutate, and no historical symmetry is permanent. However, when a time-channel sequence repeats cleanly across multiple cycles, it becomes a useful way to frame expectation, especially for identifying where equilibrium touches and regime shifts are statistically more likely to occur. If this rhythm continues to hold, future cycle windows can be mapped the same way, with the emphasis placed on time-based decision zones and mean reactions rather than on any single price target.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by johnconner966
Bitcoin: Where Is The Bottom?Bitcoin sell off continues through the 90K to 88K support area. There have been no reversal confirmations on this time frame since I wrote my previous report. The reversal pattern that I was anticipating never even began to materialize. Trade opportunities were best found on the day trade time frames in my opinion. Why wasn't anyone calling for such a move back in August? All of the "experts" who seem to always know the future, until something like this comes along? This is why I don't forecast the future, instead I do my best to uncover potential risks which can lead to capturing potential opportunities. 88K is where I labeled Wave 1 of the broader 5th wave which I talked about for months. I warned investors that buying and attempting to hold above 100K was high risk. Bitcoin is NOW at prices worth monitoring for longer time horizon investing, BUT price has compromised the 88K overlap level. I interpret as we are no longer in the broader Wave 4 and instead, the Wave 5 of 5 is likely complete. There is a much lower chance that we get the dramatic rally into the 130Ks as a result. This change in expectation is what guides how I gauge investment potential, which then shapes my strategy and goals. 73K is a MAJOR support level (previous all time high before the election) and it is now much more possible to be tested. IF there is any confirmed reversal before reaching this support, profit potential for SWING trades can be measured from the next series of resistances 95K, 100K, and 105K respectively. The 88K overlap suggests that Bitcoin is now in a broader Wave 2 which is likely to unfold in a long term range. A range low is more likely and has yet to be established. It could be 73K, it could be lower like in the 60Ks. SENTIMENT drives price over the short term which is why fundamentals alone are not enough. There are many ways to begin accumulating Bitcoin inventory or acquiring exposure without buying Bitcoin itself. There's a entire collection of ETFs that track Bitcoin that have low cost fees. There are also other stocks that are highly correlated to Bitcoin but have their own unique characteristics which can enhance performance or help to mitigate some of the risks of buying Bitcoin itself. COIN is one of many examples. I would rather accumulate shares of a stock which is easily accessible and straightforward than accumulating Bitcoin itself simply out of convenience. I will talk more about this during my regular stream. The illustration on my chart is ONE of many scenarios to consider for the coming weeks. While 73K is a possibility, I like it is a low probability that price will probe that low without attempting to retrace first. There is a pin bar in place but still lacking confirmation on this time frame. I believe there is a much higher chance of reversal from the current prices, BUT I do not expect an attempt at new all time highs any time soon. WAIT for confirmations, set profit objectives and keep expectations within the boundaries that are set forth by the PRICE STRUCTURE, not "experts" whose only agenda is to convert your attention into a paycheck. Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
40
BTCUSD – Outlook for the Upcomming daysMonthly View The monthly timeframe remains bullish overall, but Bitcoin has pulled back to gather strength, it can take previous monthly timeframe low's liquidity. This kind of move is typical when the market is gearing up to break a higher high. The broader structure hasn’t shifted—this is simply a deeper retracement inside a bullish narrative. Weekly View The weekly chart is showing a similar story. Price has been dropping consistently without giving even a single proper reversal. If BTC truly wanted to fall aggressively, it would normally make a move up first, trigger traders’ stop-losses near previous highs, and then dump. But this time, it didn’t do that. This unusual behavior hints that the market may be preparing something different from what most traders expect. Daily View The daily timeframe is where things get really interesting. Bitcoin spent more than half the recent sessions moving sideways, collecting liquidity on both sides. After that, it dipped and formed a lower high—but that lower high hasn’t been broken yet. According to my analysis, BTC is currently sitting in the Discount Zone, an area where buyers often start becoming active. 4-Hour View On the 4H chart, I already had a clean short setup earlier, but now I’m watching for signs of a potential reversal. That reversal idea is not guaranteed, though—it becomes invalid if BTC fails to break the series of lower highs. There’s also another scenario: BTC might refuse to break the lower highs and begin forming higher lows at the same time. If that happens, we’ll see a period of sideways consolidation. When the breakout finally comes—whichever direction it chooses—the move is likely to be powerful. Final Thoughts Based on my analysis, BTC is showing mixed but promising signals across the higher and lower timeframes. The monthly structure is still bullish, and this pullback looks more like preparation for a stronger push rather than a trend reversal. Weekly price action hasn’t shown any meaningful bounce yet, which is unusual—and that alone hints that the market might be setting up something unexpected. On the daily chart, BTC has swept liquidity after moving sideways for quite a while, and now it’s resting in the Discount Zone, where smart money usually becomes active. The 4H timeframe already gave clean short opportunities earlier, but now the market is approaching a point where a reversal could begin—unless lower highs remain untouched. If BTC starts forming higher lows without breaking lower highs, the market will likely slip into a compression phase. When price finally breaks out of that squeeze, the move—up or down—can be very strong. Again, this is just my personal viewpoint. Please do your own analysis before investing. Your profits and losses are entirely your responsibility—I’m only sharing what the charts are suggesting to me right now. Stay alert to the reaction levels ahead; that’s where the next major direction will reveal itself. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thanks for checking out this analysis! If you enjoyed it, hit that follow button so you don’t miss future updates. And if this breakdown helped you out, drop a like 👍 and share your thoughts in the comments 💬—I always appreciate the feedback!
BINANCE:BTCUSD.PLong
by PankajHuslte
2
BTC Market Structure UpdateBitcoin is currently trading near the 84,000 zone while respecting a downward trendline on the 15-minute chart. Price is moving inside a short-term compression range. A clean break above the trendline and the 84,472 zone may indicate strength toward the next price areas around 85,154 and 85,554, where potential resistance levels exist. However, if the price fails to hold above the mid-range and moves below 83,185, it may show weakness toward the lower support area. This update highlights key structure levels so traders can observe how price reacts to each zone.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Wolfpips123
Bitcoin: Is the Market Reaching a Historical Turning Point?📅 Update: October 2025 💡 Format: Educational analysis — not financial advice Historical Context Looking back at Bitcoin’s (BTC) price history, a clear pattern emerges: roughly every four years, the market experiences a major correction following a strong bullish cycle. Key examples include: 2011 2013–2014 2018 2022 Each time, Bitcoin saw a drawdown of –75% to –93% from its previous highs. These deep retracements have historically marked the end of a growth phase and the beginning of a new accumulation cycle. Current Elliott Wave Structure According to Elliott Wave analysis, Bitcoin appears to have completed its third and fourth waves, while the fifth wave is currently unfolding. However, the recent price action suggests that this fifth wave might already be nearing its conclusion. The price remains within an upward channel, testing the trendline for the fourth time — a technical signal that often indicates weakening bullish momentum and a potential transition to a corrective phase. Main Scenario: Possible Trend Reversal For a confirmed shift in trend, Bitcoin would need to break below the channel’s lower boundary. A typical technical sequence would look like this: A breakdown below the trendline A retest of the broken level from below The beginning of a stronger downward move This process usually unfolds over months, not days — a slow structural change rather than a sudden reversal. Potential Downside Range Based on historical patterns, a post-peak correction could bring Bitcoin into the $40,000–$30,000 range. This is not a forecast, but rather an educational scenario grounded in the recurring market behavior seen in previous cycles. Conclusion and Community Discussion 📊 At this stage, Bitcoin’s overall structure remains bullish, but signs of momentum exhaustion are becoming more apparent. The key factor to watch is how price reacts to the main trendline — whether it holds as support or gives way to a deeper retracement. ❓Which scenario do you find more likely? Continued growth and new highs Or a corrective phase toward lower levels? 🗨 Share your thoughts and charts in the comments — let’s discuss it together. 🔔 Follow for more educational breakdowns, and suggest which tickers you’d like to see analyzed next.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by sdk-trading
1
BTC.D 4H – Market Structure OutlookHi fellow traders, On the 4H BTC Dominance chart, I am applying Elliott Wave principles to outline a directional scenario for the broader crypto market. After completing the recent downward leg, I expect dominance to move higher in three waves, forming a corrective structure before the larger continuation to the downside can resume. This is not a trade setup, but a structural roadmap to understand how capital may rotate across the crypto market. As long as BTC.D remains below the invalidation level at 61.32%, my expectation is that dominance will eventually turn lower with TP1, TP2, and TP3 as the downside objectives - signalling increasing strength for ALTcoins. If dominance breaks above the invalidation level, this scenario is no longer valid. Good luck and trade safe!
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by OGwavetrader
2
Saylor’s Master Plan at Risk? MSCI Drops the HammerMSCI May Exclude Crypto-Heavy Companies: What It Means for MicroStrategy and the Market MSCI recently published a proposal that could dramatically reshape how global indices treat companies with large crypto exposure. According to the framework, companies holding more than 50% of their market capitalization in digital assets may be excluded from national and international indices. This sounds technical - but the consequences are huge. What This Means in Practice If the rule is implemented, companies like MicroStrategy, Bitfarms, Marathon, Hut8, Coinbase, or any firm holding a large percentage of crypto on their balance sheet, may: be excluded from major indices, lose exposure to institutional investors, be off-limits for pension funds, insurers and conservative hedge funds, face reduced liquidity and forced selling. This is not a small development. This is a structural shift. 🧩 Why MicroStrategy Is the Most Exposed MicroStrategy’s business model has been extremely straightforward: issue new shares raise debt (including convertible notes) use the proceeds to buy Bitcoin rising BTC → rising MSTR rising MSTR → more borrowing capacity A perpetual loop. But if MSTR gets excluded from key indices, the loop breaks: passive funds must sell institutional investors face compliance risk liquidity dries up volatility increases borrowing costs rise And remember: MicroStrategy currently trades below the fair value of its Bitcoin holdings. A forced outflow amplifies the structural imbalance. ⚠️ Why Institutions Bought MicroStrategy Instead of Bitcoin Many funds legally cannot buy Bitcoin. They also cannot buy high-risk crypto exchange stocks like Coinbase. But they can buy: reputable corporate debt convertible notes equity from a listed U.S. corporation Michael Saylor gave them a regulatory loophole: “Want Bitcoin exposure? Buy my convertible debt. If BTC rises, convert the notes into shares.” This workaround is now cracking. Convertible Debt Holders Are in a Tough Spot If MSTR is excluded from indices: index funds sell → share price drops falling price → convertible notes lose value institutions holding the debt face losses the balance sheet risk increases This is why regulatory decisions matter so much. Insider Selling: VP of Bitcoin at MicroStrategy Sells ~$19.7M Worth of Stock The timing is… interesting. Started selling on September 18 Sold options-based shares in multiple lots Continued selling until November 14 Total realized profit: ~$19.69M Selling into regulatory uncertainty is not random behavior. It’s a signal. Key Takeaways 1. MSCI’s proposal changes the rules: companies with >50% crypto exposure may become “non-indexable”. 2. MicroStrategy’s core model—borrowing to buy BTC—depends on institutional inflows. Index exclusion disrupts it. 3. Convertible note investors may face severe pressure. 4. Insider selling suggests internal awareness of structural risk. 5. If MSTR is removed from indices, forced selling could create significant downside pressure. 📉 Conclusion MicroStrategy has long been a “Bitcoin ETF before ETFs existed”. Institutions bought MSTR because they couldn’t buy BTC directly. But now: Bitcoin ETFs exist, regulations are tightening, index providers are updating risk frameworks. MicroStrategy may become a victim of its own success strategy. Best regards EXCAVO
by EXCAVO
25
BTC Monthly MACD Turns Bearish - Major Correction Ahead?Bitcoin has printed a bearish MACD crossover on the monthly timeframe, a signal that has historically aligned with the start of major market corrections. This pattern appeared during the 2018 top, again near the 2022 macro peak, and the chart now shows a similar bearish crossover forming once more. Each previous monthly MACD bearish crossover occurred after a prolonged rally and was followed by a multi-month downtrend. The current crossover resembles those same market conditions, suggesting that BTC may be entering a deeper corrective phase if history repeats. Key Highlights - Monthly MACD bearish crossover, historically signals macro trend reversals. -Similar crossovers occurred before the 2018 and 2022 bear markets. -Strong rejection candle near major resistance aligns with previous cycle tops. - Momentum weakening after an extended rally suggests potential for further downside. - Monthly timeframe signals carry high weight and can drive long-term market direction. Cheers Hexa
CRYPTO:BTCUSDShort
by HexaTrades
1
A new look at previous logarithmic channelWith the trendlines of this channel slightly shifted we can see that it is possible that priceaction has already tested the top trendline of the channel. However in my previous version of this idea which I will try to post below it hasn’t connected with the top trendline yet. Would make more sense for it to be having the rejection it is having if it has already retested this top trendline though so I decided to post this version of the chart too so I can keep an eye on both. Even if somehow this does signal some sort of top it looks like we have very strong support on the next trendline just below the current one which should have the monthly 50ma double reinforcing its support in the very near future. SOo in that case that 50k zone there should hold strong support,but hopefully this is So another correction and not the top in which case the current trendline we have just retested will hold support. *not financial advice*
INDEX:BTCUSD
by DrDovetail