Lanmar

The Bitcoin Cycle: A guide to time the next major entry

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Bitcoin could be approaching a cycle low in the next 3-9 months.

Zooming in on the weekly chart, you'll see that price tends to develop a horizontally defined resistance *after* hitting a cycle low and consolidating. Once price breaks out from that resistance, it triggers a buy signal. This is the type of action I want to see to get long with size.

On the topic of cycles, I'll use a paragraph from the first book I read that got me interested in financial markets.
From CYCLES: The Mysterious Forces That Trigger Events

How can one tell, in any given instance, whether or not a
regular rhythm that one discovers is caused by a real underlying
force or merely by chance? Let's begin with some common sense
and simple logic. If a cycle has repeated enough times, with
enough regularity and with enough strength, the chances are that
it is significant. Such regularity cannot reasonably be mere accident.


Bottom line: A cycle's reliability is based on how well it repeated that cycle in the past. I will assume the cycle in this post remains in play, and will use it as my guide to help time the next major entry. The key thing is to enter based on a signal rather than buy just because price is in the cycle low range. The cycle just adds to the weight of evidence and helps with timing - it is NOT the signal.

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